Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?

[Lurker]

Are bridges a good asset class to invest in now? Are they in high demand or is there an oversupply?

Well, the fundamentals don't support it, but Portnoy has one, so I'll take 3.

[skyguy918]

For those that remember Wendover's video on covid vaccine distribution, the CDC basically has a plan that if both Pfizer and Moderna get approved, so they can distrubute the Pfizer in the city and the Moderna in less dense areas. I wonder if that's still the case.

[yzj]

Bill Ackman, who made billions correctly predicting the economic downturn early, is making a big bet that the vaccine will actually make things worse before it gets better.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-pershing-square-hedges-pandemic-3-billion-2020-11-1029791140

[drosenberg88429]

Bill Ackman, who made billions correctly predicting the economic downturn early, is making a big bet that the vaccine will actually make things worse before it gets better.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-pershing-square-hedges-pandemic-3-billion-2020-11-1029791140

This is a strange bet. He's betting that vaccine news will lead to keep fear than is prudent, which will lead to more infections. However, it's not infections which are bad for the economy-it's fear. Unless he can come up with a model that would indicate further restrictions being placed due to rising infections which are due to falling fear levels, the infections and morbidities themselves, while bad from a health and welfare perspective, are a bit irrelevant from an economic perspective.

[PlatinumGuy]

A hedge isn't a bet.

[S209]

Bill Ackman, who made billions correctly predicting the economic downturn early, is making a big bet that the vaccine will actually make things worse before it gets better.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-pershing-square-hedges-pandemic-3-billion-2020-11-1029791140

He’s insuring himself against losses, not betting on it. This hedge is less than a third of the size of his original CDS purchase and is something every hedge fund does regularly. It’s in the name.

Then again, it’s fascinating that he thinks there’s reason to assume people will take *less* precautions because there’s a vaccine around the corner. I’d think the opposite- you can see a more or less defined end game/date.

[CountValentine]

A hedge isn't a bad bet.

[yzj]

A hedge isn't a bet.

It is when he is buying credit default swaps for company’s that he doesn’t have a stake in. That’s a bet plain and simple and it paid off big time in the spring. He turned 27 million into 2.7 Billion. That’s a lot better than you can do at the casinos.

[moish]

Bill Ackman, who made billions correctly predicting the economic downturn early, is making a big bet that the vaccine will actually make things worse before it gets better.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-pershing-square-hedges-pandemic-3-billion-2020-11-1029791140

He's not always right. Google the Herbalife saga

[S209]

It is when he is buying credit default swaps for company’s that he doesn’t have a stake in. That’s a bet plain and simple and it paid off big time in the spring. He turned 27 million into 2.7 Billion. That’s a lot better than you’re likely to do at the casinos.

FTFY

[Lurker]

He turned 27 million into 2.7 Billion. That’s a lot better than you can do at the casinos.

Meh. Have CV teach you how to count cards.

[yzj]

He's not always right. Google the Herbalife saga

Comes with the territory. Can’t make winning bets forever. Paulson made 20 billion on the CDS bets in 2008-2008 and he went downhill after that, closing up shop this year.

[PlatinumGuy]

It is when he is buying credit default swaps for company’s that he doesn’t have a stake in. That’s a bet plain and simple and it paid off big time in the spring. He turned 27 million into 2.7 Billion. That’s a lot better than you can do at the casinos.

It's to protect an opposite position in other companies. 27 million only turned into 2.7b because other investments went down. He wasn't betting on the market to crash, he hedged himself in case the market crashes.

[Afrages6]

It's to protect an opposite position in other companies. 27 million only turned into 2.7b because other investments went down. He wasn't betting on the market to crash, he hedged himself in case the market crashes.

He was betting on the market to crash. And he helped the crash by going on CNBC and crying about how bad everything was

[PlatinumGuy]

He was betting on the market to crash. And he helped the crash by going on CNBC and crying about how bad everything was

That was after the crash.

[Afrages6]

That was after the crash.

Wrong

[yzj]

It's to protect an opposite position in other companies. 27 million only turned into 2.7b because other investments went down. He wasn't betting on the market to crash, he hedged himself in case the market crashes.

He did view it as an alternative to liquidating all his positions which he was considering doing, but it wasn’t just a hedge to mitigate risk; he went into the trade to hit it big and he did. He didn’t just stabilize his portfolio. He pulled in double digit returns in both March and April while the market was tanking. Then he liquidated his positions in the swaps, and plowed all the cash into long positions at the lows which resulted in outstanding returns.

[yzj]

https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/07/29/johns-hopkins-press-conference-coronavirus-pandemic-latest/

Can any places other than China keep up social distancing protocols for another 15 months? Or are we going to continue to see increasing flare-up and waves as countries throw in the towel?

The good news is that the vaccine timeline is better than was anticipated. In the US, between Pfizer and Moderna there will be 70 million doses available by years end, enough for 35 million people. Figure on close to 20 million total confirmed infected by years end, along with undiagnosed cases you are easily talking over 20% population immunity, enough to start making a dent in the pandemic. The bad news is that the increasing flare ups and waves part did play out, and will likely get worse before it gets better.

[avromie7]

The good news is that the vaccine timeline is better than was anticipated. In the US, between Pfizer and Moderna there will be 70 million doses available by years end, enough for 35 million people. Figure on close to 20 million total confirmed infected by years end, along with undiagnosed cases you are easily talking over 20% population immunity, enough to start making a dent in the pandemic. The bad news is that the increasing flare ups and waves part did play out, and will likely get worse before it gets better.

More importantly, the vaccine will go to those who are at the greatest risk of dying, significantly reducing the number of deaths.

[Lurker]

More importantly, the vaccine will go to those who are at the greatest risk of dying, significantly reducing the number of deaths.

Personal opinion, I think that's a huge mistake. We should be working on cutting down the Rt, making it less likely for high risk people to come in contact with the virus in the first place.