Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 53120 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #120 on: November 09, 2020, 04:04:24 PM »
Are bridges a good asset class to invest in now? Are they in high demand or is there an oversupply?

Well, the fundamentals don't support it, but Portnoy has one, so I'll take 3.
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #121 on: November 09, 2020, 10:19:44 PM »
For those that remember Wendover's video on covid vaccine distribution, the CDC basically has a plan that if both Pfizer and Moderna get approved, so they can distrubute the Pfizer in the city and the Moderna in less dense areas. I wonder if that's still the case.

Offline yzj

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #122 on: November 11, 2020, 02:08:27 PM »
Bill Ackman, who made billions correctly predicting the economic downturn early, is making a big bet that the vaccine will actually make things worse before it gets better.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-pershing-square-hedges-pandemic-3-billion-2020-11-1029791140

Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #123 on: November 11, 2020, 02:17:34 PM »
Bill Ackman, who made billions correctly predicting the economic downturn early, is making a big bet that the vaccine will actually make things worse before it gets better.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-pershing-square-hedges-pandemic-3-billion-2020-11-1029791140

This is a strange bet. He's betting that vaccine news will lead to keep fear than is prudent, which will lead to more infections. However, it's not infections which are bad for the economy-it's fear. Unless he can come up with a model that would indicate further restrictions being placed due to rising infections which are due to falling fear levels, the infections and morbidities themselves, while bad from a health and welfare perspective, are a bit irrelevant from an economic perspective.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #124 on: November 11, 2020, 02:26:00 PM »
A hedge isn't a bet.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline S209

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #125 on: November 11, 2020, 02:47:42 PM »
Bill Ackman, who made billions correctly predicting the economic downturn early, is making a big bet that the vaccine will actually make things worse before it gets better.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-pershing-square-hedges-pandemic-3-billion-2020-11-1029791140
Heís insuring himself against losses, not betting on it. This hedge is less than a third of the size of his original CDS purchase and is something every hedge fund does regularly. Itís in the name.

Then again, itís fascinating that he thinks thereís reason to assume people will take *less* precautions because thereís a vaccine around the corner. Iíd think the opposite- you can see a more or less defined end game/date.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #126 on: November 11, 2020, 03:01:29 PM »
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline yzj

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #127 on: November 11, 2020, 04:19:58 PM »
A hedge isn't a bet.
It is when he is buying credit default swaps for companyís that he doesnít have a stake in. Thatís a bet plain and simple and it paid off big time in the spring. He turned 27 million into 2.7 Billion. Thatís a lot better than you can do at the casinos.

Offline moish

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #128 on: November 11, 2020, 04:21:55 PM »
Bill Ackman, who made billions correctly predicting the economic downturn early, is making a big bet that the vaccine will actually make things worse before it gets better.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaire-investor-bill-ackman-pershing-square-hedges-pandemic-3-billion-2020-11-1029791140
He's not always right. Google the Herbalife saga

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #129 on: November 11, 2020, 04:22:38 PM »
It is when he is buying credit default swaps for companyís that he doesnít have a stake in. Thatís a bet plain and simple and it paid off big time in the spring. He turned 27 million into 2.7 Billion. Thatís a lot better than youíre likely to do at the casinos.
FTFY

Offline Lurker

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #130 on: November 11, 2020, 04:23:29 PM »
He turned 27 million into 2.7 Billion. Thatís a lot better than you can do at the casinos.

Meh. Have CV teach you how to count cards.
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Offline yzj

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #131 on: November 11, 2020, 05:14:43 PM »
He's not always right. Google the Herbalife saga
Comes with the territory. Canít make winning bets forever. Paulson made 20 billion on the CDS bets in 2008-2008 and he went downhill after that, closing up shop this year.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #132 on: November 11, 2020, 05:17:15 PM »
It is when he is buying credit default swaps for companyís that he doesnít have a stake in. Thatís a bet plain and simple and it paid off big time in the spring. He turned 27 million into 2.7 Billion. Thatís a lot better than you can do at the casinos.
It's to protect an opposite position in other companies. 27 million only turned into 2.7b because other investments went down. He wasn't betting on the market to crash, he hedged himself in case the market crashes.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #133 on: November 11, 2020, 05:32:55 PM »
It's to protect an opposite position in other companies. 27 million only turned into 2.7b because other investments went down. He wasn't betting on the market to crash, he hedged himself in case the market crashes.
He was betting on the market to crash. And he helped the crash by going on CNBC and crying about how bad everything was

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #134 on: November 11, 2020, 05:38:45 PM »
He was betting on the market to crash. And he helped the crash by going on CNBC and crying about how bad everything was
That was after the crash.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #135 on: November 11, 2020, 05:56:24 PM »

Offline yzj

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #136 on: November 11, 2020, 05:58:55 PM »
It's to protect an opposite position in other companies. 27 million only turned into 2.7b because other investments went down. He wasn't betting on the market to crash, he hedged himself in case the market crashes.
He did view it as an alternative to liquidating all his positions which he was considering doing, but it wasnít just a hedge to mitigate risk; he went into the trade to hit it big and he did. He didnít just stabilize his portfolio. He pulled in double digit returns in both March and April while the market was tanking. Then he liquidated his positions in the swaps, and plowed all the cash into long positions at the lows which resulted in outstanding returns.

Offline yzj

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #137 on: November 16, 2020, 09:52:02 AM »
https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/07/29/johns-hopkins-press-conference-coronavirus-pandemic-latest/

Can any places other than China keep up social distancing protocols for another 15 months? Or are we going to continue to see increasing flare-up and waves as countries throw in the towel?
The good news is that the vaccine timeline is better than was anticipated. In the US, between Pfizer and Moderna there will be 70 million doses available by years end, enough for 35 million people. Figure on close to 20 million total confirmed infected by years end, along with undiagnosed cases you are easily talking over 20% population immunity, enough to start making a dent in the pandemic. The bad news is that the increasing flare ups and waves part did play out, and will likely get worse before it gets better.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #138 on: November 16, 2020, 10:36:08 AM »
The good news is that the vaccine timeline is better than was anticipated. In the US, between Pfizer and Moderna there will be 70 million doses available by years end, enough for 35 million people. Figure on close to 20 million total confirmed infected by years end, along with undiagnosed cases you are easily talking over 20% population immunity, enough to start making a dent in the pandemic. The bad news is that the increasing flare ups and waves part did play out, and will likely get worse before it gets better.
More importantly, the vaccine will go to those who are at the greatest risk of dying, significantly reducing the number of deaths.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #139 on: November 16, 2020, 10:48:10 AM »
More importantly, the vaccine will go to those who are at the greatest risk of dying, significantly reducing the number of deaths.

Personal opinion, I think that's a huge mistake. We should be working on cutting down the Rt, making it less likely for high risk people to come in contact with the virus in the first place.
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