Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 81733 times)

Offline yzj

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #160 on: November 16, 2020, 04:41:37 PM »
Some of the debate may be partially based on another difference in beliefs- @avromie7 in general seems to be mostly concerned with immediate deaths, while @Lurker is in general more wary of the virus in general, including long term consequences.

Purely hypothetically: If having the virus shaves 10 years off of the average adult’s lifespan, then even if the immediate death rate isn’t cut as sharply it would be prudent to focus the vaccine on limiting spread more than limiting deaths. If it only impacts vulnerable people significantly while leaving all others mostly unscathed, then it would be wise to move quicker to vaccinate with the aim of limiting immediate deaths than to worry about less consequential spread.
Careful. That’s what made Sweden decide to refuse hospitalization and treatment to the elderly early in the pandemic. Socialized medicine is very into QALYs using it as a basis to deny treatment to the elderly and terminally ill, rationalizing that resources are better used on younger healthier individuals.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year

Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #161 on: November 16, 2020, 04:50:23 PM »
Remember we are talking about college kids.  ;)
And their parents.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline aygart

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #162 on: November 16, 2020, 04:51:56 PM »
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline S209

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #163 on: November 16, 2020, 04:57:57 PM »
Careful. That’s what made Sweden decide to refuse hospitalization and treatment to the elderly early in the pandemic. Socialized medicine is very into QALYs using it as a basis to deny treatment to the elderly and terminally ill, rationalizing that resources are better used on younger healthier individuals.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year
I didn’t advocate either one. But the point wasn’t about QALY- it was that immediate death may not be the only significant ramification of the virus.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #164 on: November 16, 2020, 07:17:16 PM »
Here's an explanation on how that contract helped Pfizer.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/moderna-vaccine-data-show-why-warp-speed-helped-pfizer/

Thanks, interesting and informative, with substantial food for thought in the comments as well.
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #165 on: November 19, 2020, 10:36:24 PM »
https://twitter.com/Mike_Pence/status/1329572356067569664?s=20

100m are enough for 1/6 Americans, we should expect vaccines to be widely available in NYC before the end of 2020. Trump was more on target than all of us.
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Offline Euclid

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #166 on: November 19, 2020, 10:49:02 PM »

100m are enough for 1/6 Americans, we should expect vaccines to be widely available in NYC before the end of 2020. Trump was more on target than all of us.
@S209

Offline incendia

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #167 on: November 20, 2020, 07:06:18 AM »
https://twitter.com/Mike_Pence/status/1329572356067569664?s=20

100m are enough for 1/6 Americans, we should expect vaccines to be widely available in NYC before the end of 2020. Trump was more on target than all of us.

Kits aren't the vaccine.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #168 on: November 20, 2020, 09:19:11 AM »
Kits aren't the vaccine.

What is a kit? Is it a dose? two doses? A dose vial + a syringe?
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Offline Euclid

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #169 on: November 20, 2020, 09:22:36 AM »
What is a kit? Is it a dose? two doses? A dose vial + a syringe?
Microchips

Offline incendia

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #170 on: November 21, 2020, 08:14:42 PM »
What is a kit? Is it a dose? two doses? A dose vial + a syringe?

The vaccine is coming in multi dose vials

The kits are ancillary items to administer the vaccine. I'm not sure what exactly will be in the kits but you should expect syringe, alcohol swabs, bandaid's, maybe gloves etc. They'll also come with some sort of card you can use as proof of vaccination.

Kits are shelf stable and can be shipped in advance of vaccines that need refrigeration or deep freezing

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #171 on: November 21, 2020, 08:16:22 PM »
The vaccine is coming in multi dose vials

The kits are ancillary items to administer the vaccine. I'm not sure what exactly will be in the kits but you should expect syringe, alcohol swabs, bandaid's, maybe gloves etc. They'll also come with some sort of card you can use as proof of vaccination.

Kits are shelf stable and can be shipped in advance of vaccines that need refrigeration or deep freezing
Wow, I guess Pence found a way to manipulate us. Anybody else know if this is true?
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Offline yelped

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #172 on: November 21, 2020, 08:54:28 PM »
The vaccine is coming in multi dose vials

The kits are ancillary items to administer the vaccine. I'm not sure what exactly will be in the kits but you should expect syringe, alcohol swabs, bandaid's, maybe gloves etc. They'll also come with some sort of card you can use as proof of vaccination.

Kits are shelf stable and can be shipped in advance of vaccines that need refrigeration or deep freezing
So what's *Moderna" about the kit?

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #173 on: November 21, 2020, 08:58:36 PM »
So what's *Moderna" about the kit?
Likely specific to the temperature requirements

Quote
I asked him how many of those kits have already been manufactured for merging with — merging with the Moderna product, and they’ve already assembled 100 million kits that are ready to go.  And that’s the supplies that are necessary for administering the vaccine.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/press-briefing-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-november-19-2020/
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Offline yelped

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #174 on: November 21, 2020, 11:39:23 PM »
Likely specific to the temperature requirements
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/press-briefing-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-november-19-2020/
Meaning it's not suitable for Pfizer's vaccine. So adding Moderna to the tweet was actually being super accurate and not trying to mislead into thinking it's the vaccine lol.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #175 on: November 21, 2020, 11:51:26 PM »
Meaning it's not suitable for Pfizer's vaccine. So adding Moderna to the tweet was actually being super accurate and not trying to mislead into thinking it's the vaccine lol.
He gave pretty accurate information (assuming it's true), but I misunderstood it. It does beg the question, why in the world is the US government not doing more to manufacture vaccines???

From what I can read, the USG only ordered 100m does from Moderna. Did the Feds printers stop working?

https://www.modernatx.com/modernas-work-potential-vaccine-against-covid-19

https://www.lonza.com/news/2020-11-16-12-55

Is anybody but Lonza manufacturing the Moderna vaccine? They say 400m doses/year. That's 200m people. Unclear if will need a recurring shot every year. Some of the production is in Switzerland. Supposedly Israel gets the first batch from the Swiss line.

Can we really not make these any faster???

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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #176 on: November 22, 2020, 12:10:07 AM »
The vaccine is coming in multi dose vials

The kits are ancillary items to administer the vaccine. I'm not sure what exactly will be in the kits but you should expect syringe, alcohol swabs, bandaid's, maybe gloves etc. They'll also come with some sort of card you can use as proof of vaccination.

Kits are shelf stable and can be shipped in advance of vaccines that need refrigeration or deep freezing

What a scam. They could have had 100 billion such kits in February and it wouldn't help anyone.

Tachlis, how many doses of Pfizers and Moderna's are on hand already, and how many will be available for distribution by year's end?
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #177 on: November 22, 2020, 12:14:06 AM »
What a scam. They could have had 100 billion such kits in February and it wouldn't help anyone.

Tachlis, how many doses of Pfizers and Moderna's are on hand already, and how many will be available for distribution by year's end?
I don't know how many are in hand already (possibly none?). Pfizer said they will have 40m doses by year end. These are manufactured in Belgium and I'm not sure Pfizer committed the 40m to the US.

I believe Moderna is only made by Lonza, and they're making 400m/year. That includes a US plant in Portsmouth, that started in Sep, and a Swiss plant that's scheduled to start before year end. Israel claims the US only gets US production and Israel bought the first batch from the Swiss.

I was actually telling people in my outdoor shul today how Trump deserves credit for his 100m vaccine stockpile, but this is truly appalling beyond belief.
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #178 on: November 22, 2020, 12:25:25 AM »
From what I can read, the USG only ordered 100m does from Moderna. Did the Feds printers stop working?

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-supply-agreement-us-government-initial-100
Quote
Under the terms of the agreement, the U.S. government, as a part of Operation Warp Speed, will also have the option to purchase up to an additional 400 million doses of mRNA-1273 from Moderna.

This is from August.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #179 on: November 22, 2020, 12:30:53 AM »
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-supply-agreement-us-government-initial-100
This is from August.
How is Israel buying it before the US has enough for everybody? I'm all for Israel getting some, but are we Argentina now?
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