Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 8251 times)

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #181 on: November 22, 2020, 12:27:32 PM »
https://www.foxnews.com/us/operation-warp-speed-70-herd-immunity-normalcy-may-2021

20m immunizations a month means 20m doses? This is for both Pfizer and Modena combined?

1. How much will get wasted considering the complex logistics and 24 hour expiry once it’s out of cold cooling?
2. Especially when you consider only 58% of people say they still the virus.
3. How do you get to 70% of 325m+ people (450m+ doses) in six months? If your distribution rate is 20m doses a month, that’s 10m people immunized a month. By May 2021 that’s 60m people immunized, which is closer to 20% of the total US population.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #182 on: November 22, 2020, 12:36:42 PM »
20m immunizations a month means 20m doses? This is for both Pfizer and Modena combined?

1. How much will get wasted considering the complex logistics and 24 hour expiry once it’s out of cold cooling?
2. Especially when you consider only 58% of people say they still the virus.
3. How do you get to 70% of 325m+ people (450m+ doses) in six months? If your distribution rate is 20m doses a month, that’s 10m people immunized a month. By May 2021 that’s 60m people immunized, which is closer to 20% of the total US population.
Either Dr. Moncef Slaoui came from the same kitchen as Scott Atlas & Rudy Giuliani, they're assuming Pfizer/Moderna will distribute vaccines separately than the governments 20m/month, or it's 20m people per month (40m doses), 120m by May, add 10-15% that already had it and 20% for good luck and you're at 70% give or take
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #183 on: November 22, 2020, 12:38:23 PM »
20m immunizations a month means 20m doses? This is for both Pfizer and Modena combined?

1. How much will get wasted considering the complex logistics and 24 hour expiry once it’s out of cold cooling?
2. Especially when you consider only 58% of people say they still the virus.
3. How do you get to 70% of 325m+ people (450m+ doses) in six months? If your distribution rate is 20m doses a month, that’s 10m people immunized a month. By May 2021 that’s 60m people immunized, which is closer to 20% of the total US population.

20m immunizations a month means 40m doses. While the doctor seems to have been referencing both vaccines, Pfizer alone seems to be distributing 40m alone this December with a target of 1.3 billion next year- so something seems off about the numbers.

1. None will be wasted. Pfizer vaccine can be kept in the fridge for 5 days, Moderna for 30. Perhaps some people in certain areas will be vaccinated earlier than others to circumvent waste but there should be close to no actual vaccines wasted. They have been working on distribution plans for months, including cold storage shipping containers.
2. Including those who have contracted or will contract the virus. Either way, far more people will be willing to take the vaccine in March-May once they’ve seen millions immunized with no problem, including doctors and health care workers, and realize that many venues are only re-opening to people who’ve had the vaccine (teased at by the “certificate” in the vaccine “kits”)
3. See above
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #184 on: November 22, 2020, 12:47:04 PM »
Pfizer alone seems to be distributing 40m alone this December with a target of 1.3 billion next year- so something seems off about the numbers.
Pfizer said on July 22 they will try to make 100m in 2020, but have since scaled it down to 40m. I haven't seen specific guidance from Pfizer that any of these 40m are coming to Trumpland, much less all of it. They're making it in Belgium & Germany and it's hard to believe US is gonna get first dibs on all of them. The EU ordered 200m vs US's 100m and their press announcement states explicitly that they expect to begin to deliver before the end of 2020.

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https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-reach-agreement-supply-eu-200-million
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #185 on: November 22, 2020, 01:19:34 PM »
1. None will be wasted. Pfizer vaccine can be kept in the fridge for 5 days, Moderna for 30. Perhaps some people in certain areas will be vaccinated earlier than others to circumvent waste but there should be close to no actual vaccines wasted. They have been working on distribution plans for months, including cold storage shipping containers.
Maybe they'll do what they can to keep waste at a minimum, but you're insane if you think none will be wasted.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/22/scarce-covid-vaccine-waste-438928

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #186 on: November 22, 2020, 01:22:55 PM »
Maybe they'll do what they can to keep waste at a minimum, but you're insane if you think none will be wasted.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/22/scarce-covid-vaccine-waste-438928
The article you posted lays out a valid argument that *some* doses *could* get wasted. I don’t think they will at a significant amount, though. Nor, apparently, does the lead civilian doctor advising Warp Speed.

They’ve had too much time to prepare and too much to lose. This has literally been their biggest priority all along.

ETA From the article:

Quote
Maryland health officials told the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that as much as 5 percent of the vaccine the state is allocated could spoil and go unused.

5% is possible and acceptable
« Last Edit: November 22, 2020, 01:26:06 PM by S209 »
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #187 on: November 22, 2020, 01:24:48 PM »
20m immunizations a month means 40m doses. While the doctor seems to have been referencing both vaccines, Pfizer alone seems to be distributing 40m alone this December with a target of 1.3 billion next year- so something seems off about the numbers.

1. None will be wasted. Pfizer vaccine can be kept in the fridge for 5 days, Moderna for 30. Perhaps some people in certain areas will be vaccinated earlier than others to circumvent waste but there should be close to no actual vaccines wasted. They have been working on distribution plans for months, including cold storage shipping containers.
2. Including those who have contracted or will contract the virus. Either way, far more people will be willing to take the vaccine in March-May once they’ve seen millions immunized with no problem, including doctors and health care workers, and realize that many venues are only re-opening to people who’ve had the vaccine (teased at by the “certificate” in the vaccine “kits”)
3. See above

Any recent source from Pfizer directly on how many doses they plan on distributing in the US in 2021?
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #188 on: November 22, 2020, 01:27:09 PM »
The article you posted lays out a valid argument that *some* doses *could* get wasted. I don’t think they will at a significant amount, though. Nor, apparently, does the lead civilian doctor advising Warp Speed.

They’ve had too much time to prepare and too much to lose. This has literally been their biggest priority all along.

ETA From the article:
5% is possible and acceptable

5% waste decreases 20m a month to 19m, assuming numbers aren’t higher elsewhere.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #189 on: November 22, 2020, 01:30:41 PM »
The article you posted lays out a valid argument that *some* doses *could* get wasted. I don’t think they will at a significant amount, though. Nor, apparently, does the lead civilian doctor advising Warp Speed.

They’ve had too much time to prepare and too much to lose. This has literally been their biggest priority all along.

ETA From the article:
5% is possible and acceptable
I'm literally calling out your statement - none will be wasted. And yes, I'm sure you didn't mean it literally. But handwaving away concerns is not a good idea in this situation with its unique logistical requirements. There are potential solutions, but they're not bulletproof, and they may be difficult to execute perfectly. This is essentially something that's never been done, so any proposal is something that hopefully will reduce waste, but is by no means a guarantee.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #190 on: November 22, 2020, 01:31:50 PM »
They’ve had too much time to prepare and too much to lose.
You would think
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #191 on: November 22, 2020, 01:33:49 PM »
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/22/scarce-covid-vaccine-waste-438928
Quote
Meanwhile, the Trump administration refuses to share its planning with the transition team of President-elect Joe Biden, who said Wednesday the lack of access could hamper vaccine distribution. Instead, Biden’s team has been in contact with Pfizer and other drugmakers; a Pfizer spokesperson declined to share specifics of the communication.

Oy bashefer
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #192 on: November 22, 2020, 01:41:46 PM »

Oy bashefer
they're preparing an excuse for the Biden admin to bungle the vaccine distribution.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #193 on: November 22, 2020, 01:53:28 PM »
they're preparing an excuse for the Biden admin to bungle the vaccine distribution.
Trump is preparing the excuse for Biden by not briefing him?
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #194 on: November 22, 2020, 01:55:14 PM »
they're preparing an excuse for the Biden admin to bungle the vaccine distribution.
But is it a valid excuse?
I'm literally calling out your statement - none will be wasted. And yes, I'm sure you didn't mean it literally. But handwaving away concerns is not a good idea in this situation with its unique logistical requirements. There are potential solutions, but they're not bulletproof, and they may be difficult to execute perfectly. This is essentially something that's never been done, so any proposal is something that hopefully will reduce waste, but is by no means a guarantee.
You're right, *none* was a bit hyperbolic, I meant not a significant enough amount to sway the equation and estimate (like saying there was *no* fraud in the 2020 election). I thought I qualified it somewhat by adding the words “close to no” at the end. I guess I could have been more precise.
Any recent source from Pfizer directly on how many doses they plan on distributing in the US in 2021?
Not that I know of, I don’t think they’ve been specific recently about distribution numbers and dates anywhere.
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