Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?

[S209]

UPDATE: There are currently 6 vaccines already approved for early/limited use in several countries including the UAE, Russia, and China

[yzj]

UPDATE: There are currently 6 vaccines already approved for early/limited use in several countries including the UAE, Russia, and China

https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/29/it-may-be-time-to-reset-expectations-on-when-well-get-a-covid-19-vaccine/

“While it’s unfortunate, I don’t find it surprising that the timeline is being moved back,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy. “Clinical trials like this routinely have unexpected occurrences that delay planned timelines. It’s just not unexpected.”

As for the idea that all Americans will have had a chance to be vaccinated by the early spring, Osterholm suggested it is going to take longer.

“For many of us, we never thought that that was doable,” he said. “I commend Operation Warp Speed for what it has accomplished in the time it has, but to have vaccinated the U.S. population by March in my mind was never a realistic goal.”

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201001133219.htm

The average date given by 28 experts in the field of vaccine development is September/October 2021. Very different that the dates that those pressured by political considerations are giving. The survey did take place in late June but was published in October. I don’t think there have been any dramatic breakthroughs that have changed their opinion.

[S209]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/29/it-may-be-time-to-reset-expectations-on-when-well-get-a-covid-19-vaccine/

“While it’s unfortunate, I don’t find it surprising that the timeline is being moved back,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy. “Clinical trials like this routinely have unexpected occurrences that delay planned timelines. It’s just not unexpected.”

As for the idea that all Americans will have had a chance to be vaccinated by the early spring, Osterholm suggested it is going to take longer.

“For many of us, we never thought that that was doable,” he said. “I commend Operation Warp Speed for what it has accomplished in the time it has, but to have vaccinated the U.S. population by March in my mind was never a realistic goal.”

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201001133219.htm

The average date given by 28 experts in the field of vaccine development is September/October 2021. Very different that the dates that those pressured by political considerations are giving. The survey did take place in late June but was published in October. I don’t think there have been any dramatic breakthroughs that have changed their opinion.

This survey is quite dated. Do you honestly believe they would maintain their answers to this question?

2. Question: When will a field study with at least 5000 participants report results?

Answers:

best guess = March 2021 (average)
soonest = December 2020 (average)
latest = July 2021 (average)

[yzj]

I haven’t seen otherwise from any reputable expert in the field. Just about every one of them is pointing to summer or fall 2021 or later for a rollout to the general population. Have you seen otherwise?

[S209]

I haven’t seen otherwise from any reputable expert in the field. Just about every one of them is pointing to summer or fall 2021 or later for a rollout to the general population. Have you seen otherwise?

Did you see the quote I questioned? I doubt you’ll find anyone alive who still thinks it’ll be past December

[Afrages6]

Did you see the quote I questioned? I doubt you’ll find anyone alive who still thinks it’ll be past December

Well Cuomo called the vaccine distribution plan racist today and floated the idea of suing the federal government about it. So that may side track things.

[yzj]

Did you see the quote I questioned? I doubt you’ll find anyone alive who still thinks it’ll be past December

That hasn’t changed the overall outlook of the experts. Here’s another one:

https://themedialine.org/top-stories/as-israel-begins-human-trials-experts-warn-covid-vaccine-still-long-way-off/

Shapira’s timeline of next summer is the best-case scenario, according to Izbicki, with the realistic case taking longer, and the worst-case much longer, at one-and-a-half to two years.

“[An available vaccine] is definitely going to take longer because we need data, we need statistics [and] we need patients. It’s not a small trial,” added Izbicki.

[Afrages6]

That hasn’t changed the overall outlook of the experts. Here’s another one:

https://themedialine.org/top-stories/as-israel-begins-human-trials-experts-warn-covid-vaccine-still-long-way-off/

Shapira’s timeline of next summer is the best-case scenario, according to Izbicki, with the realistic case taking longer, and the worst-case much longer, at one-and-a-half to two years.

“[An available vaccine] is definitely going to take longer because we need data, we need statistics [and] we need patients. It’s not a small trial,” added Izbicki.

That’s only referring to Israel’s own vaccine.

[yzj]

If the study is outdated there ought to be updated info out there. Can you find a quote of a single expert in the vaccine  field who thinks the mass rollout will be long before summer 2021? I haven’t found any.

[PlatinumGuy]

If the study is outdated there ought to be updated info out there. Can you find a quote of a single expert in the vaccine  field who thinks the mass rollout will be long before summer 2021? I haven’t found any.

Is the CEO of Pfizer not an expert enough?

[S209]

If the study is outdated there ought to be updated info out there. Can you find a quote of a single expert in the vaccine  field who thinks the mass rollout will be long before summer 2021? I haven’t found any.

The link you posted quoted one or two

Just last Friday, Paul Mango, deputy chief of staff for policy for Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, reiterated the administration’s projection that all Americans who want to be vaccinated against Covid-19 will have that opportunity by the early spring.

“We believe before the end of this year we will be able to vaccinate our most vulnerable citizens,” Mango told journalists in an update on the work of Operation Warp Speed, the government’s effort to fast-track Covid-19 vaccines, drugs, and diagnostics.

“By the end of January, we believe we’ll be able to vaccinate all seniors. By the March and April timeframe, we believe we’ll be able to vaccinate any American who desires a vaccination,” Mango said.

But Pfizer, which has been one of the most aggressive players in the vaccine race, had earlier predicted it would know by the end of September if its vaccine worked — an estimate that was later pushed back to late October. The company now projects that it could apply to the FDA for an emergency use authorization for the vaccine, which it is developing with BioNTech, in mid-November.

[AsherO]

Well Cuomo called the vaccine distribution plan racist today and floated the idea of suing the federal government about it. So that may side track things.

Politics. The moron doesn't like the vaccine because he thinks it makes the Trump administration look good. He'd play this card even if it results (heaven forbid) in more deaths, just to advance his agenda. The fact that only democratic governors will question and try to stall the vaccine isn't scientific, it's all politics.

[S209]

Pfizer believes it will distribute 40 million doses in the US this year through its own non-government channels. Data (followed by FDA EUA within 5-7 days) expected any time soon, could be available this week.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-sidelines-us-government-covid-19-vaccine-distribution-plan-favor-its-own-reports

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/pfizer-designed-new-container-and-plans-to-tap-shipping-companies-for-covid-19

[yzj]

Pfizer believes it will distribute 40 million doses in the US this year through its own non-government channels. Data (followed by FDA EUA within 5-7 days) expected any time soon, could be available this week.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-sidelines-us-government-covid-19-vaccine-distribution-plan-favor-its-own-reports

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/pfizer-designed-new-container-and-plans-to-tap-shipping-companies-for-covid-19

It’s a two dose vaccine. If everything goes perfect and there are also no distribution bottlenecks that’s enough for less than 7% of the population. If that goes well it will still be well into 2021 for full distribution. The Pfizer vaccine is aiming for 60% effectiveness. At 60% even if enough vaccine were to be produced and distributed and if every single us citizen agreed to be vaccinated you still wouldn’t achieve herd immunity which is assumed to be north of 70%. And the reality is that surveys in the US and Canada show that half of respondents would refuse to take the vaccine. That would mean that near 100% availability would result in under 30% population immunity.

The bottom line is that a full vaccine rollout will be a help, but it will most likely still result in continuing waves of covid that are something like Lakewood second wave vs Lakewood first wave. Perhaps with more of a track record of safety and efficacy as we get toward the end of 2021 there will be less reluctance to vaccinate but that remains to be seen. Don’t  go burning those masks just yet.

[AsherO]

It’s a two dose vaccine. If everything goes perfect and there are also no distribution bottlenecks that’s enough for less than 7% of the population. If that goes well it will still be well into 2021 for full distribution. The Pfizer vaccine is aiming for 60% effectiveness. At 60% even if enough vaccine were to be produced and distributed and if every single us citizen agreed to be vaccinated you still wouldn’t achieve herd immunity which is assumed to be north of 70%. And the reality is that surveys in the US and Canada show that half of respondents would refuse to take the vaccine. That would mean that near 100% availability would result in under 30% population immunity.

The bottom line is that a full vaccine rollout will be a help, but it will most likely still result in continuing waves of covid that are something like Lakewood second wave vs Lakewood first wave. Perhaps with more of a track record of safety and efficacy as we get toward the end of 2021 there will be less reluctance to vaccinate but that remains to be seen. Don’t  go burning those masks just yet.

If you can vaccinate the 20m most risky people (and I’m not suggesting Pfizer can) then COVID will be a smaller problem already. If we get the same from 1-2 other vaccine candidate, with 100m + doses available by year’s end, it won’t take until 2021 to make a significant dent in the current COVID outbreak.

If the first dose confers limited immunity fairly quickly then vaccinating areas with small outbreaks will help mitigate spread as well.

[Lurker]

If you can vaccinate the 20m most risky people (and I’m not suggesting Pfizer can) then COVID will be a smaller problem already. If we get the same from 1-2 other vaccine candidate, with 100m + doses available by year’s end, it won’t take until 2021 to make a significant dent in the current COVID outbreak.

If the first dose confers limited immunity fairly quickly then vaccinating areas with small outbreaks will help mitigate spread as well.

I wouldn't start with the most high-risk people. I would start with very active people in the 20-40 demo who haven't had the virus set . If we can't achieve herd immunity, at least let the vaccine work to limit the spread as much as possible. It has an added benefit of giving the vaccine to people who are most likely to be able to handle adverse effects, should they arise.

[S209]

The bottom line is that a full vaccine rollout will be a help, but it will most likely still result in continuing waves of covid that are something like Lakewood second wave vs Lakewood first wave. Perhaps with more of a track record of safety and efficacy as we get toward the end of 2021 there will be less reluctance to vaccinate but that remains to be seen. Don’t  go burning those masks just yet.

Don’t forget there is also already some population immunity even before a vaccine.

If you can vaccinate the 20m most risky people (and I’m not suggesting Pfizer can) then COVID will be a smaller problem already. If we get the same from 1-2 other vaccine candidate, with 100m + doses available by year’s end, it won’t take until 2021 to make a significant dent in the current COVID outbreak.

If the first dose confers limited immunity fairly quickly then vaccinating areas with small outbreaks will help mitigate spread as well.

I wouldn't start with the most high-risk people. I would start with very active people in the 20-40 demo who haven't had the virus set . If we can't achieve herd immunity, at least let the vaccine work to limit the spread as much as possible. It has an added benefit of giving the vaccine to people who are most likely to be able to handle adverse effects, should they arise.

Both of your ideas have merit, and at the end of the day it’s a tough decision. Some would also say that health care workers should have the highest priority, as that would help ease staffing problems and equipment shortage issues.

Regardless, there is no doubt that efficiently targeting even a relatively small portion of the population has the potential to have an outsized impact on the spread and deadliness of outbreaks. While I agree it’s not quite mask burning time, the case can be made that coupled with better medical awareness, lots of testing, and lighter hospital loads COVID won’t be quite as big a threat in the US in just another month or two.

It might be enough for even the high risk to be able to mostly re-enter society safely, as long as they maintain minimal restrictions.

[aygart]

While I agree it’s not quite mask burning time

I will be just as happy as everyone else to be done with masks but I don't get the need to burn them.

[yesitsme]

now that plastic bags are banned in NY and NJ I'm wondering how much longer it will take till they ban masks, the litter it makes

[iluv2travel]

now that plastic bags are banned in NY and NJ I'm wondering how much longer it will take till they ban masks, the litter it makes

If its made of biodegradable material (no idea if they are or aren't) they might argue that this type of litter is fine  .