Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 8475 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #75 on: November 08, 2020, 06:11:48 PM »
If you can vaccinate the 20m most risky people (and Iím not suggesting Pfizer can) then COVID will be a smaller problem already. If we get the same from 1-2 other vaccine candidate, with 100m + doses available by yearís end, it wonít take until 2021 to make a significant dent in the current COVID outbreak.

If the first dose confers limited immunity fairly quickly then vaccinating areas with small outbreaks will help mitigate spread as well.

I wouldn't start with the most high-risk people. I would start with very active people in the 20-40 demo who haven't had the virus set . If we can't achieve herd immunity, at least let the vaccine work to limit the spread as much as possible. It has an added benefit of giving the vaccine to people who are most likely to be able to handle adverse effects, should they arise.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #76 on: November 08, 2020, 07:31:21 PM »
The bottom line is that a full vaccine rollout will be a help, but it will most likely still result in continuing waves of covid that are something like Lakewood second wave vs Lakewood first wave. Perhaps with more of a track record of safety and efficacy as we get toward the end of 2021 there will be less reluctance to vaccinate but that remains to be seen. Donít  go burning those masks just yet.
Donít forget there is also already some population immunity even before a vaccine.
If you can vaccinate the 20m most risky people (and Iím not suggesting Pfizer can) then COVID will be a smaller problem already. If we get the same from 1-2 other vaccine candidate, with 100m + doses available by yearís end, it wonít take until 2021 to make a significant dent in the current COVID outbreak.

If the first dose confers limited immunity fairly quickly then vaccinating areas with small outbreaks will help mitigate spread as well.
I wouldn't start with the most high-risk people. I would start with very active people in the 20-40 demo who haven't had the virus set . If we can't achieve herd immunity, at least let the vaccine work to limit the spread as much as possible. It has an added benefit of giving the vaccine to people who are most likely to be able to handle adverse effects, should they arise.
Both of your ideas have merit, and at the end of the day itís a tough decision. Some would also say that health care workers should have the highest priority, as that would help ease staffing problems and equipment shortage issues.

Regardless, there is no doubt that efficiently targeting even a relatively small portion of the population has the potential to have an outsized impact on the spread and deadliness of outbreaks. While I agree itís not quite mask burning time, the case can be made that coupled with better medical awareness, lots of testing, and lighter hospital loads COVID wonít be quite as big a threat in the US in just another month or two.

It might be enough for even the high risk to be able to mostly re-enter society safely, as long as they maintain minimal restrictions.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #77 on: November 08, 2020, 07:40:21 PM »


While I agree itís not quite mask burning time

I will be just as happy as everyone else to be done with masks but I don't get the need to burn them.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #78 on: November 08, 2020, 07:42:19 PM »
now that plastic bags are banned in NY and NJ I'm wondering how much longer it will take till they ban masks, the litter it makes

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #79 on: November 08, 2020, 08:05:10 PM »
now that plastic bags are banned in NY and NJ I'm wondering how much longer it will take till they ban masks, the litter it makes

If its made of biodegradable material (no idea if they are or aren't) they might argue that this type of litter is fine  ::).

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #80 on: November 08, 2020, 10:03:03 PM »
I wouldn't start with the most high-risk people. I would start with very active people in the 20-40 demo who haven't had the virus set . If we can't achieve herd immunity, at least let the vaccine work to limit the spread as much as possible. It has an added benefit of giving the vaccine to people who are most likely to be able to handle adverse effects, should they arise.
Hard to imagine a scenario where the first priority isn't nursing homes and healthcare workers. It would seem the challenge is more about distribution than manufacturing, so I would assume anybody who would be willing to pay a little bit for somebody to inject it will be able to get it fairly early.

I think there's a good chance the government will have to pay people to take it when there are more doses than volunteers
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #81 on: November 08, 2020, 10:37:43 PM »
Then thereís the minor issue of Pfizerís vaccine needing cold storage of -94F. Thatís going to be a logistical nightmare when it comes to distribution.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #82 on: November 08, 2020, 10:51:32 PM »
Then thereís the minor issue of Pfizerís vaccine needing cold storage of -94F. Thatís going to be a logistical nightmare when it comes to distribution.
I think that's fairly common in food distribution warehouses, but I wonder what kind of point-of-care facility would have that capacity.  It has to stay at that temperature all the way until injection? 24h would make all the difference...
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #83 on: November 08, 2020, 10:59:16 PM »
I think that's fairly common in food distribution warehouses, but I wonder what kind of point-of-care facility would have that capacity.  It has to stay at that temperature all the way until injection? 24h would make all the difference...
From the article I linked
Quote
Late last month, Pfizer outlined an ambitious vaccine distribution effort centered on sites in Michigan and Belgium. Because the mRNA vaccine has be stored at minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit, the plan includes shipping containers that can keep doses at that temperature for 10 days. And the company has lined up additional locations in Wisconsin and Germany for storage.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #84 on: November 08, 2020, 11:19:43 PM »
From the article I linked
Capitalism at it's finest. Long live America
Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect - Mark Twain

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #85 on: November 09, 2020, 12:17:05 AM »
I think that's fairly common in food distribution warehouses, but I wonder what kind of point-of-care facility would have that capacity.  It has to stay at that temperature all the way until injection? 24h would make all the difference...

I donít think it has to be that cold until injection, I recall reading relatively warmer temperatures (but still much colder than commercial freezers) for a few days prior to injection.

In any case this will be a hinderance towards targeting certain demographics with limited vaccine supplies, unless you can get them to all come to the same location at around the same time.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #86 on: November 09, 2020, 12:17:44 AM »
Capitalism at it's finest. Long live America

Or: Greed that will destroy us and cause lives to be lost. #latestagecapitalism
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #87 on: November 09, 2020, 04:36:40 AM »
I donít think it has to be that cold until injection, I recall reading relatively warmer temperatures (but still much colder than commercial freezers) for a few days prior to injection.

In any case this will be a hinderance towards targeting certain demographics with limited vaccine supplies, unless you can get them to all come to the same location at around the same time.
Itís 24 hours in the fridge and -94F or less until that point.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/pfizer-win-covid-vaccine-race-distributing-matter/story%3fid=72862724

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #89 on: November 09, 2020, 07:42:43 AM »
Itís 24 hours in the fridge and -94F or less until that point.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/pfizer-win-covid-vaccine-race-distributing-matter/story%3fid=72862724
Fascinating. From the article
Quote
Pfizer said it would be partnering with UPS to create mobile "freezer farms" that contain 48,000 vaccines and are strategically placed throughout the country for swift distribution.
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