Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 35526 times)

Offline how

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #765 on: January 31, 2021, 08:45:11 AM »

Offline how

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #766 on: January 31, 2021, 12:55:50 PM »
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1



You can see in the following figure how virtually everybody had some antibody response before the second dose

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032195
I'm not seeing what your implying that a positive test for antibodies does not show that the vaccine worked, @biobook Wanna weigh in?

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #767 on: January 31, 2021, 01:01:11 PM »
I'm not seeing what your implying that a positive test for antibodies does not show that the vaccine worked, @biobook Wanna weigh in?
In the figure in this link each line represents a single person, and it shows almost every single participant tested positive for antibodies after a first dose, yet we know it wasn't fully effective until the second does.



You can see in the following figure how virtually everybody had some antibody response before the second dose

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032195
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #768 on: January 31, 2021, 01:16:29 PM »
You have antibodies, but it's not clear what level of antibodies is enough for immunity, and not clear what the importance of antibodies are relative to T cells for immunity.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/covid-vaccine-labcorp-ceo-says-recipients-dont-need-antibody-test-afterward.html
Source?

I think you're saying that a positive for antibodies result in a few days after the vaccine does not imply immunity however I personally still think that a high antibody result x amount of days after a vaccine, should imply that your vaccine is working.

IME, not e/o who took the vaccine automatically tetsed positive for antibodies 

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #769 on: January 31, 2021, 01:31:11 PM »
IME, not e/o who took the vaccine automatically tetsed positive for antibodies
They are likely using the wrong tests. The trials are showing virtually everybody does.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline biobook

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #770 on: January 31, 2021, 02:09:27 PM »
I think you're saying that a positive for antibodies result in a few days after the vaccine does not imply immunity
Yes, that's exactly right. 
If you DO have antibodies after the vaccine, it's still possible that your antibody levels are too low and you ARE NOT immune. 
If you DON'T have antibodies after the vaccine, it's still possible that your T cells are now high enough that you ARE immune.

(I assume you mean a few days after the second vaccine, since it would take a while to get high antibodies after the first.)

Quote
however I personally still think that a high antibody result x amount of days after a vaccine, should imply that your vaccine is working.

It is possible that in some people the vaccine "works" to produce antibodies, but doesn't "work" to confer immunity.  But you're not entering a contest to see who gets the most antibodies; (semicolon!) you want immunity.  The experts are still not sure what exact value for antibodies/T cells corresponds to immunity. 

You're conflating two ways of thinking about this: What's the current scientific understanding? What do I personally think is likely?  I've tried to answer the first, and you're answering the second.

Quote
IME, not e/o who took the vaccine automatically tetsed positive for antibodies
Could be that they'll take longer to develop antibodies.   Could be that their T cells are high, and just haven't been tested for.  Could be that they are less likely to be immune.  We just don't know yet how to answer that for an individual.  For a large population, like the 20,000 in the clinical trial, we can say that there's a high probability that people will be immune after the vaccine.  But we can't answer that for any one individual, and don't know why a small percentage of people still got covid after the vaccine.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #771 on: January 31, 2021, 02:15:04 PM »
Yes, that's exactly right. 
If you DO have antibodies after the vaccine, it's still possible that your antibody levels are too low and you ARE NOT immune. 
If you DON'T have antibodies after the vaccine, it's still possible that your T cells are now high enough that you ARE immune.

(I assume you mean a few days after the second vaccine, since it would take a while to get high antibodies after the first.)
 
It is possible that in some people the vaccine "works" to produce antibodies, but doesn't "work" to confer immunity.  But you're not entering a contest to see who gets the most antibodies; (semicolon!) you want immunity.  The experts are still not sure what exact value for antibodies/T cells corresponds to immunity. 

You're conflating two ways of thinking about this: What's the current scientific understanding? What do I personally think is likely?  I've tried to answer the first, and you're answering the second.
Could be that they'll take longer to develop antibodies.   Could be that their T cells are high, and just haven't been tested for.  Could be that they are less likely to be immune.  We just don't know yet how to answer that for an individual.  For a large population, like the 20,000 in the clinical trial, we can say that there's a high probability that people will be immune after the vaccine.  But we can't answer that for any one individual, and don't know why a small percentage of people still got covid after the vaccine.
I hear Thank you

Offline biobook

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #772 on: January 31, 2021, 02:16:26 PM »
I usually watch them live on Zoom. I signed up to receive the updates and notifications by emailing yiwoodmerecovidupdate@gmail.com. They are all archived on Youtube, just search for Dr. Glatt Covid and they'll all come up.
Thanks, @Traveler718 . I'm sorry I missed out on these excellent talks.  There had been some kerfuffle a while back, and it was after that that the 5tjt stopped highlighting them, and I assumed that he had stopped giving them.  Gotta go listen...



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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #773 on: January 31, 2021, 06:37:18 PM »
With 95% efficacy unfortunatly there will still be cases.
https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1179973

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #774 on: January 31, 2021, 06:54:41 PM »
With 95% efficacy unfortunatly there will still be cases.
https://www.bhol.co.il/news/1179973

There’s always the 5%, and 5% of a very large number is still a significant count. The question is whether these numbers are significantly worse the the 95% that was reported or not. Without a frame of reference to compare to it’s hard to say, as it seems like these numbers might be from the beginning of vaccinations in Israel up until the day these were compiled, during that time tens (maybe hundreds) of thousands of Israelis tested positive.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #775 on: January 31, 2021, 07:45:14 PM »
There’s always the 5%, and 5% of a very large number is still a significant count. The question is whether these numbers are significantly worse the the 95% that was reported or not. Without a frame of reference to compare to it’s hard to say, as it seems like these numbers might be from the beginning of vaccinations in Israel up until the day these were compiled, during that time tens (maybe hundreds) of thousands of Israelis tested positive.
And millions were vaccinated
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #776 on: February 01, 2021, 04:59:17 AM »
Thread title should be bumped up by a year

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/30/first-mass-air-shipment-of-pfizers-covid-vaccine-arrives-as-airlines-prepare-for-more.html

Title should probably be changed to 2022 and beyond.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccination-delays-put-global-rebound-at-risk-11612112184?mod=mhp

“Timetables for vaccinating enough people to effectively curb Covid-19 are slipping in many countries, raising fears that a large portion of the world will still be battling the pandemic and its economic effects well into 2022 or beyond.“

“Analysts doubt other countries can reach their stated targets. In Indonesia, officials want to vaccinate 65% of a population of 270 million in 15 months, which would more likely take three to four years, according to analysts at IMA Asia.”



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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #777 on: February 01, 2021, 06:52:41 AM »
Title should probably be changed to 2022 and beyond.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccination-delays-put-global-rebound-at-risk-11612112184?mod=mhp

“Timetables for vaccinating enough people to effectively curb Covid-19 are slipping in many countries, raising fears that a large portion of the world will still be battling the pandemic and its economic effects well into 2022 or beyond.“

“Analysts doubt other countries can reach their stated targets. In Indonesia, officials want to vaccinate 65% of a population of 270 million in 15 months, which would more likely take three to four years, according to analysts at IMA Asia.”

Doesn’t  this really mean more mutations and potential reinfection of people vaccinated with existing vaccines? Sigh. We (humanity) really are all in this together.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #778 on: February 02, 2021, 11:09:48 AM »
You're hearing about people catching covid after vaccination, but there's no way they can catch it from the vaccine itself.  Here are a few possibilities:

1. They caught covid BEFORE they got the vaccine.  It takes an average of 5 days for symptoms to appear, but can be as much as 2-3 weeks later.  During that interval they got the vaccine, and mistakenly thought that the vaccine caused covid, but they really were already infected before they got the vaccine.

2. They caught covid DURING the time they went for the vaccine.  The most vulnerable people have been isolating at home, and when they go for the vaccine they may come in contact with people who are infected - for example, during the ride in a car or bus on the way to the vaccination place, or while sitting with other people who are waiting for the injection, or who are resting briefly after getting it.

3. They caught covid in the days AFTER the vaccine.  The vaccine is not immediately effective.  It takes a couple of weeks to start building up immunity, and only after the second injection does it become very strong.  Even then, it's not 100%, so people need to continue to take precautions.
We can come up with alot of good reasons for the sudden outbreak. To say that a new covid variant develops just as thousands are inoculated... I find it hard to just brush off that they may actually be related!!
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Offline biobook

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #779 on: February 02, 2021, 11:30:31 AM »
We can come up with alot of good reasons for the sudden outbreak. To say that a new covid variant develops just as thousands are inoculated... I find it hard to just brush off that they may actually be related!!
This is a very normal human thought process, when we see two things happen at the same time, we consider that they may be related.  This is a valuable response, because it encourages us to change our behavior accordingly.

I eat the leftover gefilte fish that's been in the fridge for a week... I get stomach cramps.  I guess they may be related, and next time I throw out food that's been sitting for that long.  Good!

I go to a noisy wedding... and my ears are ringing the next day.  I guess they may be related, and next time I go to a wedding I bring ear plugs.  Good!

I drive to work... and get in an awful traffic jam.  I guess they may be related, and next day I quit going to work.  Uh... maybe not so good!

When we see two things occurring at the same time, our first thought is that they may be related, but that shouldn't be our last thought on the matter.  We need to examine more carefully whether or not there really is a relationship between them, and exactly what that relationship might be.