Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 35531 times)

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #795 on: February 10, 2021, 02:36:46 AM »

Chinese vax
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Online AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #797 on: February 10, 2021, 07:01:32 AM »
https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-team-fears-no-covid-19-herd-immunity-until-thanksgiving

If we have herd immunity by thanksgiving that would be nice actually. I’m not even hopeful for that...

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #798 on: February 10, 2021, 08:51:44 AM »
If we have herd immunity by thanksgiving that would be nice actually. I’m not even hopeful for that...
Because of supply, lack of interest, or kids?

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #799 on: February 10, 2021, 08:58:48 AM »
Because of supply, lack of interest, or kids?

Yes. And possible mutations.
When you find yourself agreeing with me more often than not, it's time for a cheshbon hanefesh.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #800 on: February 10, 2021, 09:09:56 AM »
Because of supply, lack of interest, or kids?

Supply shouldn't be an issue. The rate they're sustaining is just mRNA vaccines, and both J&J and AZN expect EUA soon. Logistics shouldn't be an issue either, the non mRNA vaccines are stable and can be administered at local doctors offices, pharmacies, etc.

Demand from young people is a big concern of mine, vaccination for children, and yes, possibly mutations as well. Add to that a false sense of security that vaccinated people have that'll potentially keep spreading the virus to unvaccinated people. Less transmission is not no transmission.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #801 on: February 10, 2021, 12:48:29 PM »
Vaccine hesitancy is a major issue, but can be tackled with carrot and stick. Israel is starting to legislate around that. 

The mRNA vaccines are likely to be approved in kids before November

Mutations are mainly a fear mongering hypothetical, so far none of them come remotely close to evading vaccine immunology, at least not for severe illness.

The biggest concern IMHO is that vaccines aren't 100% effective at preventing transmission. That means IMHO we'll never have real herd immunity and outbreaks will continue to happen endemically

״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Ver hut gazugt

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #803 on: February 10, 2021, 08:57:49 PM »
https://www.timesofisrael.com/vaccine-reduces-spread-risk-even-before-2nd-shot-israeli-study-suggests/

What does it mean that they “crunched data from Maccabi”? Since when does the Kupat Cholim measure/have viral load data?

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #804 on: February 10, 2021, 09:21:31 PM »
What does it mean that they “crunched data from Maccabi”? Since when does the Kupat Cholim measure/have viral load data?
I think it's based on Cycle threshold data on positive tests processed at the MyHeritage lab
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #805 on: February 10, 2021, 09:58:09 PM »
I think it's based on Cycle threshold data on positive tests processed at the MyHeritage lab

Nice. I already saw this on Twitter, they had a nice chart with Ct numbers. Wondering why they don't tell you your Ct when you test positive.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #806 on: February 10, 2021, 10:12:42 PM »
Nice. I already saw this on Twitter, they had a nice chart with Ct numbers. Wondering why they don't tell you your Ct when you test positive.
They do in some places, the issue is the CT benchmark varies a lot between labs, and much of it is random based on the quality of the given sample. If you have the same lab and a large amount of data you can filter out those effects on a community basis even if you can't for an individual.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #807 on: February 11, 2021, 03:42:13 AM »
Vaccine hesitancy is a major issue, but can be tackled with carrot and stick. Israel is starting to legislate around that. 
Israeli ex Supreme Court justice says if somebody who isn’t vaccinated infects others there’s grounds for a civil damages lawsuit



אבנו סכינו ומשאו שנפלו מראש גגו...
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #808 on: February 11, 2021, 08:10:13 AM »
Israeli ex Supreme Court justice says if somebody who isn’t vaccinated infects others there’s grounds for a civil damages lawsuit



אבנו סכינו ומשאו שנפלו מראש גגו...
probably more like regular aish
More likely hezeik sheaino nikar

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #809 on: February 11, 2021, 02:47:32 PM »
probably more like regular aish

The Chiddush of אבנו סכינו is that Aish isn't only fire but encompasses similar damages done by a combination of negligence and natural causes.

"אי בהדי דקא אזלי קא מזקי, היינו אש! מאי שנא אש – דכח אחר מעורב בו וממונך ושמירתו עליך, הני נמי כח אחר מעורב בהן וממונך ושמירתו עליך!"

More likely hezeik sheaino nikar
Which is גרמי which we pasken is חייב.

But Hezek Sheaino Nikar is when the damage isn't visible, like making wine unkosher while it remains visibly identical. Covid damages are very visible.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים