Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 86416 times)

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 31176
  • Total likes: 8085
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #800 on: February 10, 2021, 09:09:56 AM »
Because of supply, lack of interest, or kids?

Supply shouldn't be an issue. The rate they're sustaining is just mRNA vaccines, and both J&J and AZN expect EUA soon. Logistics shouldn't be an issue either, the non mRNA vaccines are stable and can be administered at local doctors offices, pharmacies, etc.

Demand from young people is a big concern of mine, vaccination for children, and yes, possibly mutations as well. Add to that a false sense of security that vaccinated people have that'll potentially keep spreading the virus to unvaccinated people. Less transmission is not no transmission.
DDF FFB (Forum From Birth)

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15106
  • Total likes: 2441
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #801 on: February 10, 2021, 12:48:29 PM »
Vaccine hesitancy is a major issue, but can be tackled with carrot and stick. Israel is starting to legislate around that. 

The mRNA vaccines are likely to be approved in kids before November

Mutations are mainly a fear mongering hypothetical, so far none of them come remotely close to evading vaccine immunology, at least not for severe illness.

The biggest concern IMHO is that vaccines aren't 100% effective at preventing transmission. That means IMHO we'll never have real herd immunity and outbreaks will continue to happen endemically

״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online Ver hut gazugt

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Silver Elite
  • *****
  • Join Date: Jan 2021
  • Posts: 631
  • Total likes: 622
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: New york

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 31176
  • Total likes: 8085
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #803 on: February 10, 2021, 08:57:49 PM »
https://www.timesofisrael.com/vaccine-reduces-spread-risk-even-before-2nd-shot-israeli-study-suggests/

What does it mean that they “crunched data from Maccabi”? Since when does the Kupat Cholim measure/have viral load data?
DDF FFB (Forum From Birth)

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15106
  • Total likes: 2441
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #804 on: February 10, 2021, 09:21:31 PM »
What does it mean that they “crunched data from Maccabi”? Since when does the Kupat Cholim measure/have viral load data?
I think it's based on Cycle threshold data on positive tests processed at the MyHeritage lab
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 31176
  • Total likes: 8085
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #805 on: February 10, 2021, 09:58:09 PM »
I think it's based on Cycle threshold data on positive tests processed at the MyHeritage lab

Nice. I already saw this on Twitter, they had a nice chart with Ct numbers. Wondering why they don't tell you your Ct when you test positive.
DDF FFB (Forum From Birth)

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15106
  • Total likes: 2441
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #806 on: February 10, 2021, 10:12:42 PM »
Nice. I already saw this on Twitter, they had a nice chart with Ct numbers. Wondering why they don't tell you your Ct when you test positive.
They do in some places, the issue is the CT benchmark varies a lot between labs, and much of it is random based on the quality of the given sample. If you have the same lab and a large amount of data you can filter out those effects on a community basis even if you can't for an individual.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15106
  • Total likes: 2441
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #807 on: February 11, 2021, 03:42:13 AM »
Vaccine hesitancy is a major issue, but can be tackled with carrot and stick. Israel is starting to legislate around that. 
Israeli ex Supreme Court justice says if somebody who isn’t vaccinated infects others there’s grounds for a civil damages lawsuit

https://twitter.com/almog_tamar/status/1359783507048939522

אבנו סכינו ומשאו שנפלו מראש גגו...
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline yitzgar

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Dec 2016
  • Posts: 3186
  • Total likes: 1322
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
    • View Profile
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #808 on: February 11, 2021, 08:10:13 AM »
Israeli ex Supreme Court justice says if somebody who isn’t vaccinated infects others there’s grounds for a civil damages lawsuit

https://twitter.com/almog_tamar/status/1359783507048939522

אבנו סכינו ומשאו שנפלו מראש גגו...
probably more like regular aish
More likely hezeik sheaino nikar

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15106
  • Total likes: 2441
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #809 on: February 11, 2021, 02:47:32 PM »
probably more like regular aish

The Chiddush of אבנו סכינו is that Aish isn't only fire but encompasses similar damages done by a combination of negligence and natural causes.

"אי בהדי דקא אזלי קא מזקי, היינו אש! מאי שנא אש – דכח אחר מעורב בו וממונך ושמירתו עליך, הני נמי כח אחר מעורב בהן וממונך ושמירתו עליך!"

More likely hezeik sheaino nikar
Which is גרמי which we pasken is חייב.

But Hezek Sheaino Nikar is when the damage isn't visible, like making wine unkosher while it remains visibly identical. Covid damages are very visible.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15106
  • Total likes: 2441
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #810 on: February 11, 2021, 06:05:54 PM »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15106
  • Total likes: 2441
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #811 on: February 14, 2021, 03:02:46 PM »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Jerseysteve

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite
  • ****
  • Join Date: Sep 2008
  • Posts: 394
  • Total likes: 74
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile

Offline Lurker

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jul 2019
  • Posts: 5128
  • Total likes: 6398
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
    • View Profile
  • Location: As always, silence is NOT an admission of agreement on DDF. It just means that people lack the stamina to keep on arguing with made up "facts", illogical arguments, deceiving statements, nasty and degrading comments, and fuzzy math. - @yelped
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #813 on: February 14, 2021, 08:52:40 PM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/how-to-beat-the-pandemic-by-summer/ar-BB1dEcc7?ocid=uxbndlbing

Big fan of point #2, especially if we focus on the younger adults. The example given about headlights on cars was interesting, and I'd take it one step further. I'd rather have one headlight on every car on the road (or even half the cars on the road), than working headlights on parked cars.

The biggest mistake in this article, IMO, is the first paragraph:
Quote
After nearly a year of social isolation and sacrifice in the long war on COVID-19, the end stage of the pandemic is finally in sight. Millions of Americans are being vaccinated each week, and the number of coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the United States has plunged by more than 40 percent in the past month.

Correlating the numbers going down from the second wave with the vaccine rollout may ultimately cause serious harm when the third wave hits.
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15106
  • Total likes: 2441
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 15106
  • Total likes: 2441
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 31176
  • Total likes: 8085
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #816 on: February 23, 2021, 09:00:43 PM »
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1364226817662480394

J&J doesn’t have data from US clinical trials like AZN has? Idk why I conflated the two and thought that’s what was holding up JNJ’s data from getting sent to the FDA
DDF FFB (Forum From Birth)

Offline Ergel

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 13070
  • Total likes: 905
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #817 on: February 24, 2021, 02:50:07 AM »
Did J&J test on kids?
Does Israel have outstanding order with J&J?
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 31176
  • Total likes: 8085
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #818 on: February 24, 2021, 06:57:05 AM »
Did J&J test on kids?
Does Israel have outstanding order with J&J?

I think the answer to both questions is no:

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-j-j-idUSKBN27F2MP
DDF FFB (Forum From Birth)

Online Moshe123

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Sep 2012
  • Posts: 6233
  • Total likes: 918
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: Spring Valley
  • Programs: Lost