Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 1483 times)

Offline yzj

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Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« on: July 30, 2020, 07:11:21 PM »
https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/07/29/johns-hopkins-press-conference-coronavirus-pandemic-latest/

Can any places other than China keep up social distancing protocols for another 15 months? Or are we going to continue to see increasing flare-up and waves as countries throw in the towel?

Offline Dan

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2020, 07:15:12 PM »
Bunch of boich svaros.
There has never been this much money thrown at making and distributing a vaccine before.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline mmgfarb

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2020, 07:21:44 PM »
Bunch of boich svaros.
There has never been this much money thrown at making and distributing a vaccine before.
Agreed. We've never even had a vaccine start stage 3 trials this early before.
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Offline yzj

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2020, 08:18:34 PM »
Agreed. We've never even had a vaccine start stage 3 trials this early before.
True but there are still a lot of hurdles.
https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/merck-ceo-ken-frazier-speaks-about-a-covid-cure-racism-and-why-leaders-need-to-walk-the-talk
 I think when people tell the public that there's going to be a vaccine by the end of 2020, for example, I think they do a grave disservice to the public.

Some are saying mid 2021 but thats still the better part of a year.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24U0WN

Offline lcm

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2020, 11:40:23 PM »

Offline yzj

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2020, 11:56:09 PM »
Bunch of boich svaros.
There has never been this much money thrown at making and distributing a vaccine before.
If anything, thinking that lots of money = vaccine in a few months when its never been done in less than four years is a boich sevara. Here what some who have been in the vaccine industry for decades have to say about it:
https://www.cgdev.org/blog/vaccine-preliminary-results-here-why-we-need-exercise-caution

https://theconversation.com/fast-covid-19-vaccine-timelines-are-unrealistic-and-put-the-integrity-of-scientists-at-risk-139824

This NYT article is older but it gives some insight into the process:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html
« Last Edit: July 31, 2020, 12:05:14 AM by yzj »

Offline yzj

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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2020, 08:17:22 AM »
Time for a poll. Will there be an effective vaccine widely available in the US by 12/31/2020?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2020, 10:53:16 AM »
Time for a poll. Will there be an effective vaccine widely available in the US by 12/31/2020?

For every quarter after 12/31/2020, the likelihood increases dramatically.

You need to define widely available, where and how many doses distributed by that date?

My guess is there will be something in the US that's FDA approved by 2/15/2020, possibly by 12/31/2020, but not necessarily 100m doses distributed by that date.
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2020, 11:16:22 AM »
For every quarter after 12/31/2020, the likelihood increases dramatically.

You need to define widely available, where and how many doses distributed by that date?

My guess is there will be something in the US that's FDA approved by 2/15/2020, possibly by 12/31/2020, but not necessarily 100m doses distributed by that date.

Widely available = enough to remove all commerce and lifestyle restrictions nationwide (or in other words, having the entire country act as if they live in WB, BP, CH or KJ).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Yard sale

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2020, 11:40:48 AM »
Widely available = enough to remove all commerce and lifestyle restrictions nationwide (or in other words, having the entire country act as if they live in WB, BP, CH or KJ).
Id put money down that that wont happen before summer 2021 at the very earliest.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2020, 11:58:18 AM »
Widely available = enough to remove all commerce and lifestyle restrictions nationwide (or in other words, having the entire country act as if they live in WB, BP, CH or KJ).

Even if you had 300m doses manufactured and ready for distribution, it would take at least a month to vaccinate 300m people, especially if it's a multi-dose vaccine.

Also keep in mind that a vaccine takes time to build up immunity. My guess is if there was a widely distributed vaccine out there, people would be much more lax even before the majority of any given population was considered immune due to vaccination.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2020, 12:01:44 PM »
Id put money down that that wont happen before summer 2021 at the very earliest.

Interesting opinion coming from you. So, how does one bet on this? If I was a betting person I would bet against you. I would bet that by the end of 1h 2020 there will certainly be an FDA approved and distributed (100m+ doses in distribution centers/warehouses) vaccine in the US.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2020, 12:16:51 PM by AsherO »
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Offline Buruch

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2020, 12:09:48 PM »
Aren't they already mass producing the 2 main candidates, so they're ready for distribution as soon as they're FDA cleared? Doesn't phase 3 of those trials end in about 3 months? No guarantee either of them pan out, but if they do, the vaccine should be ready November/December.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2020, 12:20:32 PM »
I don't think vaccine will be available to the public until mid-to-late Jan 21. I think the volume will depend on the election. I think Trump will throw his entire stockpile at the public as quickly as possible, while a Biden administration may take a more cautious approach.
Please wear a mask.