Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 81841 times)

Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #140 on: November 16, 2020, 11:21:48 AM »
Personal opinion, I think that's a huge mistake. We should be working on cutting down the Rt, making it less likely for high risk people to come in contact with the virus in the first place.
Maybe some sort of hybrid, but I don't think it's smart to start with people who are most likely to spread it to young people. College campuses probably have some of the highest Rt, but they're definitely not the place to start distributing the vaccine. Best place to start is probably nursing home and hospital patients and staff.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #141 on: November 16, 2020, 11:27:56 AM »
Maybe some sort of hybrid, but I don't think it's smart to start with people who are most likely to spread it to young people. College campuses probably have some of the highest Rt, but they're definitely not the place to start distributing the vaccine. Best place to start is probably nursing home and hospital patients and staff.

College campuses are not where I would start. I'd start with people in the 25-45 demo. People whose circles are more likely to be widespread, between work, kids, shuls/churches, and local stores.
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #142 on: November 16, 2020, 03:27:38 PM »
The government didn't write any checks, but they signed a $2Billion contract with them
Here's an explanation on how that contract helped Pfizer.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/moderna-vaccine-data-show-why-warp-speed-helped-pfizer/

Offline aygart

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #143 on: November 16, 2020, 03:50:22 PM »
Maybe some sort of hybrid, but I don't think it's smart to start with people who are most likely to spread it to young people. College campuses probably have some of the highest Rt, but they're definitely not the place to start distributing the vaccine. Best place to start is probably nursing home and hospital patients and staff.
When a college kid tests positive they typically go home. Who catches t from them then?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #144 on: November 16, 2020, 03:58:58 PM »
When a college kid tests positive they typically go home. Who catches t from them then?
I don't think that's true, they're usually isolated on campus.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline S209

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #145 on: November 16, 2020, 04:13:28 PM »
Some of the debate may be partially based on another difference in beliefs- @avromie7 in general seems to be mostly concerned with immediate deaths, while @Lurker is in general more wary of the virus in general, including long term consequences.

Purely hypothetically: If having the virus shaves 10 years off of the average adult’s lifespan, then even if the immediate death rate isn’t cut as sharply it would be prudent to focus the vaccine on limiting spread more than limiting deaths. If it only impacts vulnerable people significantly while leaving all others mostly unscathed, then it would be wise to move quicker to vaccinate with the aim of limiting immediate deaths than to worry about less consequential spread.
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Offline etech0

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #146 on: November 16, 2020, 04:15:18 PM »
Some of the debate may be partially based on another difference in beliefs- @avromie7 in general seems to be mostly concerned with immediate deaths, while @Lurker is in general more wary of the virus in general, including long term consequences.

Purely hypothetically: If having the virus shaves 10 years off of the average adult’s lifespan, then even if the immediate death rate isn’t cut as sharply it would be prudent to focus the vaccine on limiting spread more than limiting deaths. If it only impacts vulnerable people significantly while leaving all others mostly unscathed, then it would be wise to move quicker to vaccinate with the aim of limiting immediate deaths than to worry about less consequential spread.
And how could we know?
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #147 on: November 16, 2020, 04:16:48 PM »
Some of the debate may be partially based on another difference in beliefs- @avromie7 in general seems to be mostly concerned with immediate deaths, while @Lurker is in general more wary of the virus in general, including long term consequences.

Purely hypothetically: If having the virus shaves 10 years off of the average adult’s lifespan, then even if the immediate death rate isn’t cut as sharply it would be prudent to focus the vaccine on limiting spread more than limiting deaths. If it only impacts vulnerable people significantly while leaving all others mostly unscathed, then it would be wise to move quicker to vaccinate with the aim of limiting immediate deaths than to worry about less consequential higher spread.

This is generally accurate, especially my views on Covid. However, I am less concerned with 10 years being shaved off the average lifespan and more concerned with the quality of life, regardless of the lifespan. (Respiratory, neurological, fertility, etc... see long-term effects thread.)
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Offline S209

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #148 on: November 16, 2020, 04:17:36 PM »
And how could we know?
Examine the evidence.
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Offline S209

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Online CountValentine

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #150 on: November 16, 2020, 04:22:21 PM »
I don't think that's true, they're usually isolated on campus.
Source?
I have three kids on my block that should be isolated. They came home because they didn't want to be stuck in a dorm room.
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Offline aygart

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #151 on: November 16, 2020, 04:23:43 PM »
Examine the evidence.
How should we examine the evidence about what the effects will be in 10 years from now?
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Offline aygart

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #152 on: November 16, 2020, 04:24:45 PM »
I don't think that's true, they're usually isolated on campus.
There is someone I do business with in PA who seems to have just caught it from his kid who tested positive in college.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline S209

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #153 on: November 16, 2020, 04:27:49 PM »
How should we examine the evidence about what the effects will be in 10 years from now?
We can see the impact having the virus had on various systems in the body and use existing knowledge we have to extrapolate. For example, if the virus leads to renal failure, we can extrapolate and calculate the expected lifespan of the average kidney patient.

Thus far, it certainly seems like too many suffer some damage to various systems.
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Offline aygart

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #154 on: November 16, 2020, 04:32:39 PM »
We can see the impact having the virus had on various systems in the body and use existing knowledge we have to extrapolate. For example, if the virus leads to renal failure, we can extrapolate and calculate the expected lifespan of the average kidney patient.

Thus far, it certainly seems like too many suffer some damage to various systems.
yet unknown how permanent such damage is.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #155 on: November 16, 2020, 04:33:20 PM »
There is someone I do business with in PA who seems to have just caught it from his kid who tested positive in college.
I am in shock!!  ;)
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #156 on: November 16, 2020, 04:33:36 PM »
Source?
I have three kids on my block that should be isolated. They came home because they didn't want to be stuck in a dorm room.
There is someone I do business with in PA who seems to have just caught it from his kid who tested positive in college.
I was under the impression that all students who test positive are isolated on site, but maybe they just have that option available and some choose not to use that option. I would hope those who have high risk people living in their house would make sure not to come home.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #157 on: November 16, 2020, 04:36:22 PM »
I was under the impression that all students who test positive are isolated on site, but maybe they just have that option available and some choose not to use that option. I would hope those who have high risk people living in their house would make sure not to come home.

Yea... I'd hope people have common sense, but we both know the reality there.
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Offline etech0

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #158 on: November 16, 2020, 04:37:39 PM »
Examine the evidence.
How should we examine the evidence about what the effects will be in 10 years from now?
+1
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #159 on: November 16, 2020, 04:38:23 PM »
I was under the impression that all students who test positive are isolated on site, but maybe they just have that option available and some choose not to use that option. I would hope those who have high risk people living in their house would make sure not to come home.
Remember we are talking about college kids.  ;)
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