Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 81694 times)

Online AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #240 on: November 25, 2020, 12:10:33 PM »
Astra Zeneca has been testing it’s UK sample every week with PCR to identify asymptomatic. It’s a shame they’re making the vaccine pro bono & bumbled up the trial

What do you mean bumbled up?
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #241 on: November 25, 2020, 12:14:38 PM »
What are the odds she's an antivaxxer with a good imagination?
Which antivaxxer would take a trial vaccine? Unless she imagined that part too...
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Online AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #242 on: November 25, 2020, 12:16:05 PM »
Which antivaxxer would take a trial vaccine? Unless she imagined that part too...

I think that’s what’s being suggested here, that the entire story is one big fabrication.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #243 on: November 25, 2020, 12:27:19 PM »
I think that’s what’s being suggested here, that the entire story is one big fabrication.
okay
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #244 on: November 25, 2020, 12:27:36 PM »
I think that’s what’s being suggested here, that the entire story is one big fabrication.

If that were to be true, she's been setting it up for a while. Her first post is from July.

Online AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #245 on: November 25, 2020, 12:30:10 PM »
If that were to be true, she's been setting it up for a while. Her first post is from July.

If this was her intention then that would be plausible.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #246 on: November 25, 2020, 01:43:29 PM »
What do you mean bumbled up?
There is widespread criticism of their study quality and transparency, the two tidbits I picked up were that somehow a large sample size got the wrong dose and they modified the study retroactively in light of that, which isn't ideal (Can you be really sure everyone got the same mistaken dose?), and unlike Moderna & Pfizer, AZN isn't running a single uniform trial but various different studies in different countries with different parameters, making it very difficult to analyze effectively.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #247 on: November 25, 2020, 02:19:40 PM »
Dr. Slauoi says 110 million Americans should be vaccinated by end of February, entire country by sometime between May and December:

https://therecount.com/wire/vaccine-czar-dr-moncef-slaoui/2645864330

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #248 on: November 25, 2020, 02:20:34 PM »
Dr. Slauoi says 110 million Americans should be vaccinated by end of February, entire country by sometime between May and December:

https://therecount.com/wire/vaccine-czar-dr-moncef-slaoui/2645864330
Either Dr. Moncef Slaoui came from the same kitchen as Scott Atlas & Rudy Giuliani
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #249 on: November 25, 2020, 02:26:51 PM »
There is widespread criticism of their study quality and transparency, the two tidbits I picked up were that somehow a large sample size got the wrong dose and they modified the study retroactively in light of that, which isn't ideal (Can you be really sure everyone got the same mistaken dose?), and unlike Moderna & Pfizer, AZN isn't running a single uniform trial but various different studies in different countries with different parameters, making it very difficult to analyze effectively.

The dosing inconsistency might have a silver lining if it results in higher efficacy:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/astrazeneca-probes-mistake-behind-90-covid-vaccine-efficacy

It’s clearly beneficial to have all these vaccine candidates in the running for reasons like this. AZN’s vaccine has advantages over Pfizer/Moderna in that it’s a more traditional adenovirus vaccine (vs mRNA) and it’s stable with regular refrigeration.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #250 on: November 25, 2020, 02:30:55 PM »
The dosing inconsistency might have a silver lining if it results in higher efficacy:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/astrazeneca-probes-mistake-behind-90-covid-vaccine-efficacy

It’s clearly beneficial to have all these vaccine candidates in the running for reasons like this. AZN’s vaccine has advantages over Pfizer/Moderna in that it’s a more traditional adenovirus vaccine (vs mRNA) and it’s stable with regular refrigeration.
Yes, all the more shame they messed up their trials. AZN's primary advantage is price.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #251 on: November 25, 2020, 02:32:34 PM »
Yes, all the more shame they messed up their trials. AZN's primary advantage is price.

Price? Wasn’t Pfizer’s vaccine $20/dose for the government’s 100m dose PO? Negligible cost if they can distribute it quickly and the economy can safely go back to normal.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #252 on: November 25, 2020, 02:34:04 PM »
Price? Wasn’t Pfizer’s vaccine $20/dose for the government’s 100m dose PO? Negligible cost if they can distribute it quickly and the economy can safely go back to normal.
AZN's price is even lower - big difference for developing countries
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #253 on: November 25, 2020, 02:41:19 PM »
AZN's price is even lower - big difference for developing countries

I’m narrowly thinking US market. Hopefully the global community will subsidize this for emerging markets and/or allow them to manufacture generic doses locally, but that is TBD.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #256 on: November 26, 2020, 12:06:24 AM »
https://apple.news/AbufAQ4ldRuCQ3GsvnGdyGw

Per WSJ, General Perna claims there are 6.4m/2 Pfizer doses available immediately upon FDA approval
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #257 on: November 26, 2020, 02:40:32 AM »
https://apple.news/AbufAQ4ldRuCQ3GsvnGdyGw

Per WSJ, General Perna claims there are 6.4m/2 Pfizer doses available immediately upon FDA approval

What people forget is that the 2nd dose isn't due for a month. You can technically dose 6.4m people on day 1 because Pfizer will still be manufacturing and have (perhaps significantly) more doses ready a month later.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #258 on: November 26, 2020, 12:05:19 PM »
https://apple.news/AbufAQ4ldRuCQ3GsvnGdyGw

Per WSJ, General Perna claims there are 6.4m/2 Pfizer doses available immediately upon FDA approval

That’s nothing, what happened to 100m doses by the end of the year?
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #259 on: November 26, 2020, 12:17:45 PM »
That’s nothing, what happened to 100m doses by the end of the year?
You mean Mike Pence's 100m kits?

What people forget is that the 2nd dose isn't due for a month. You can technically dose 6.4m people on day 1 because Pfizer will still be manufacturing and have (perhaps significantly) more doses ready a month later.
Yeah good point, but they said 3.2m people with 6.4m doses.

BTW Pfizer anticipates 40m by year end, but only 6.4m by FDA approval on Dec 10. The numbers don't really add up. There are 15 days until Dec 10 in which they expect to make 6.4m, and 20 days from Dec 10-30 in which they anticipate 33m. Granted, it is possible the production time is longer 6.4m started months ago, or production capacity will be ramped up progressively, but it's more likely a large chunk of the 40m will also be ready on Dec 10 but isn't going to the US.

It appears the US has 21m front line Health Care Workers.
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