Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 81718 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #300 on: December 03, 2020, 05:00:04 PM »
I was getting excited that maybe I'll be able to book! But then you said this 😕:

I guess we still have to take a wait and see approach to see where we get with the vaccines.

The 2 million doses is only in December. Between additional vaccinations and additional infections between now and Pesach, I think there's a very good chance Israel will be open for Pesach. But what do I know...
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Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #301 on: December 03, 2020, 05:52:15 PM »
But what do I know...

Not enough to make me take the leap and actually book 😉.

Will wait patiently.

Offline Traveler718

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #302 on: December 03, 2020, 06:17:04 PM »
The vaccine is supposed to be free, paid for by the federal government, with any fees for actually administering it covered by insurance. Does anybody think there will be opportunities to "jump the line" and receive the vaccine for a fee earlier than one's risk profile would allow him to get it for free?

I'm not talking about billionaries whose names are on the doors of the hospitals doling it out, but will there be an option to pay say $500-$1000 to get it through any private channels not subject to governmental rules of priority?

And separately, even though the federal guidelines recommended the first batch go to health care professionals and also those in nursing homes, Cuomo announced that NY's first batch will go solely to nursing home residents and staff, with hospital-based doctors and nurses having to wait. Anyone think this is an attempt at damage control for what he did to the nursing homes in the spring?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-will-get-enough-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-for-170-000-people-cuomo-says-11606929884

Offline Yehudaa

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #303 on: December 03, 2020, 06:27:07 PM »
The vaccine is supposed to be free, paid for by the federal government, with any fees for actually administering it covered by insurance. Does anybody think there will be opportunities to "jump the line" and receive the vaccine for a fee earlier than one's risk profile would allow him to get it for free?

I'm not talking about billionaries whose names are on the doors of the hospitals doling it out, but will there be an option to pay say $500-$1000 to get it through any private channels not subject to governmental rules of priority?

And separately, even though the federal guidelines recommended the first batch go to health care professionals and also those in nursing homes, Cuomo announced that NY's first batch will go solely to nursing home residents and staff, with hospital-based doctors and nurses having to wait. Anyone think this is an attempt at damage control for what he did to the nursing homes in the spring?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-will-get-enough-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-for-170-000-people-cuomo-says-11606929884
Here's one way:

https://www.interpol.int/en/News-and-Events/News/2020/INTERPOL-warns-of-organized-crime-threat-to-COVID-19-vaccines

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/13422-covid-19-vaccine-could-become-liquid-gold-for-criminals

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #304 on: December 03, 2020, 06:30:38 PM »
I don't think this is really accurate, IINM at this point manufacturing is ramping up as quickly as possible, at most a couple of weeks after the vaccine starts being distributed they'll catch up to manufacturing at which point it will make no difference when they actually started distributing the vaccine.
Looks like you are correct. From the article posted above:
Quote
Pfizer and BioNtech are now on track to roll out 1.3 billion vaccines in 2021 and the 50 million dose shortfall this year will be covered as production ramps up.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #305 on: December 03, 2020, 06:57:07 PM »
The vaccine is supposed to be free, paid for by the federal government, with any fees for actually administering it covered by insurance. Does anybody think there will be opportunities to "jump the line" and receive the vaccine for a fee earlier than one's risk profile would allow him to get it for free?

I'm not talking about billionaries whose names are on the doors of the hospitals doling it out, but will there be an option to pay say $500-$1000 to get it through any private channels not subject to governmental rules of priority?

Not immediately, but I'm fairly confident it will eventually be significantly easier to get it for $200-500 out of pocket in a major city than via insurance. It also looks like this point may be reached faster in Israel & UK than the US. Likely around February.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #307 on: December 06, 2020, 12:21:34 PM »
The vaccine is supposed to be free, paid for by the federal government, with any fees for actually administering it covered by insurance. Does anybody think there will be opportunities to "jump the line" and receive the vaccine for a fee earlier than one's risk profile would allow him to get it for free?

I'm not talking about billionaries whose names are on the doors of the hospitals doling it out, but will there be an option to pay say $500-$1000 to get it through any private channels not subject to governmental rules of priority?

And separately, even though the federal guidelines recommended the first batch go to health care professionals and also those in nursing homes, Cuomo announced that NY's first batch will go solely to nursing home residents and staff, with hospital-based doctors and nurses having to wait. Anyone think this is an attempt at damage control for what he did to the nursing homes in the spring?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-will-get-enough-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-for-170-000-people-cuomo-says-11606929884
You don't think the government is going to beg people to get vaccinated? Are people really comfortable taking this shot? I think everyone will be offered the vaccine pretty quickly

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #308 on: December 06, 2020, 12:35:15 PM »
You don't think the government is going to beg people to get vaccinated? Are people really comfortable taking this shot? I think everyone will be offered the vaccine pretty quickly
Millions will line up to take it first. Eventually there will be a surplus of vaccines when supply exceeds demand and at that point their job is done.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #309 on: December 06, 2020, 12:43:43 PM »
You don't think the government is going to beg people to get vaccinated? Are people really comfortable taking this shot? I think everyone will be offered the vaccine pretty quickly

At least half the country is ready to get the shot today. By the time we work through the ones who want it, at least half of the remaining people will be ok with getting it. That's all that really matters.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #310 on: December 06, 2020, 12:48:10 PM »
At least half the country is ready to get the shot today. By the time we work through the ones who want it, at least half of the remaining people will be ok with getting it. That's all that really matters.
Don’t forget there will have been at least tens of millions already infected, skewed to the non-vaccinating group.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #311 on: December 06, 2020, 12:50:37 PM »
Don’t forget there will have been at least tens of millions already infected, skewed to the non-vaccinating group.

Yea, but that math gets fuzzy when you try to figure out who still has antibodies. You can only really count people who have been infected within 3-6 months, which eliminates the spring and (most of the) summer waves.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #312 on: December 06, 2020, 12:54:36 PM »
Yea, but that math gets fuzzy when you try to figure out who still has antibodies. You can only really count people who have been infected within 3-6 months, which eliminates the spring and (most of the) summer waves.
I’m not sure about that. Thus far most people who’ve checked antibody levels or been re-exposed (anecdotally, but a large amount of people) have remained immune(?) even 8-9 months later.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #313 on: December 06, 2020, 12:59:32 PM »
I’m not sure about that. Thus far most people who’ve checked antibody levels or been re-exposed (anecdotally, but a large amount of people) have remained immune(?) even 8-9 months later.

Anecdotally, I've made family who were infected in March test for antibodies before even thinking of visiting me, and we're sitting at 50% with antibodies right now. Confirmed Covid positives. I'm not willing to bet on anything more than 4 months without a test. Could they last for 12 months in most people? Very possibly. Maybe even longer. But for the purposes of adding them into the immunity calculations, I'd rather underestimate than overestimate.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #314 on: December 06, 2020, 01:06:25 PM »
Anecdotally, I've made family who were infected in March test for antibodies before even thinking of visiting me, and we're sitting at 50% with antibodies right now. Confirmed Covid positives.
Ouch.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #316 on: December 06, 2020, 02:37:16 PM »
Cuomo two days ago:
“Bad news, we have another mountain - I know how much you like mountains. I've heard many of your comments about the mountains. I may make another mountain to symbolize the mountain because I know you like it. That's the bad news we have another mountain to climb. The good news is the goal line is in sight. And the goal line is a vaccine that we administer that people accept. That could happen as early as June, could happen as late as September“

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #317 on: December 06, 2020, 09:11:48 PM »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #319 on: December 07, 2020, 05:44:34 PM »
https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyle/2020_q4/Article-3ea889368d5f571026.htm

Pfizer will deliver 200-500k of the 40m doses produced this year to Israel. No word yet on how many are going to the US. Make America Great Again
https://twitter.com/amy_siskind/status/1336067333752819712?s=21
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