Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 81712 times)

Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #380 on: December 23, 2020, 06:49:18 PM »
US finally ordered the 100m Pfizer doses they declined a few months ago. Expecting 170m/2 by June

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/23/pfizer-biontech-supply-coronavirus-vaccine-450216


Interesting. Did they explain why? Did Moderna make a similar condition?
Can't find information.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #381 on: December 23, 2020, 08:19:39 PM »
US finally ordered the 100m Pfizer doses they declined a few months ago. Expecting 170m/2 by June

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/23/pfizer-biontech-supply-coronavirus-vaccine-450216

Can't find information.

They’re suggesting they can vaccinate any American who wants one by June. With 200m vaccinations does this mean they’re expecting 100m+ Americans to decline/reject vaccinating?
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #382 on: December 23, 2020, 08:24:19 PM »
They’re suggesting they can vaccinate any American who wants one by June. With 200m vaccinations does this mean they’re expecting 100m+ Americans to decline/reject vaccinating?
1) At least as of now it's only approved for ages 16+
2) Just because some people didn't run to get it doesn't mean they're declining to get it.
3) There will be other vaccines available between now and June to fill some of the shortfall.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #383 on: December 23, 2020, 08:25:42 PM »
1) At least as of now it's only approved for ages 16+
2) Just because some people didn't run to get it doesn't mean they're declining to get it.
3) There will be other vaccines available between now and June to fill some of the shortfall.

All valid points, especially 1 and 3 which I hadn’t considered.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #384 on: December 23, 2020, 08:27:33 PM »
At least 1,008,025 Americans had received their first dose of the vaccine as of 9 a.m. Wednesday, according to a tally from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

There have been 9,465,725 doses distributed across the country thus far, as production of the vaccines pick up pace.

@Kobe Bryant I feel like your post belongs in this thread so I’m continuing the discussion here.

Where are these numbers from? Is there an international leaderboard for vaccine doses distributed and administered, would be nice to see such data, especially alongside a population count to show % vaccinated.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #385 on: December 23, 2020, 08:31:09 PM »
@Kobe Bryant I feel like your post belongs in this thread so I’m continuing the discussion here.

Where are these numbers from? Is there an international leaderboard for vaccine doses distributed and administered, would be nice to see such data, especially alongside a population count to show % vaccinated.
Bloomberg has a comprehensive tracker https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #386 on: December 23, 2020, 08:41:50 PM »
Bloomberg has a comprehensive tracker https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
I have been watching this the last few days and am horrified by the slow pace of vaccinations. Ohio has over 370k available yet only vaccinated 11k - Gov. Devine what is up with this?? Call in the National Guard do whatever it takes - there was plenty of time to prepare. Israel did 65k today - Illinois did a lot this is unconsiousable.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #387 on: December 23, 2020, 08:43:07 PM »
North Dakota already vaccinated 1.1% of its population Ohio 0.1% At this pace we will be dealing with covid for a decade.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #388 on: December 23, 2020, 08:45:40 PM »
I have been watching this the last few days and am horrified by the slow pace of vaccinations. Ohio has over 370k available yet only vaccinated 11k - Gov. Devine what is up with this?? Call in the National Guard do whatever it takes - there was plenty of time to prepare. Israel did 65k today - Illinois did a lot this is unconsiousable.
The way I understood it (I may be wrong), they didn't receive all 370k doses yet, they were allocated from the first PO.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #389 on: December 23, 2020, 08:52:02 PM »
The way I understood it (I may be wrong), they didn't receive all 370k doses yet, they were allocated from the first PO.
As of Dec. 15 th there were already 100k delivered to Ohio and by now there should be the 370k available. https://governor.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/governor/media/news-and-media/covid19-update-12152020

Now for the the ones started https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/vaccination-dashboard

Its a disgrace

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #390 on: December 23, 2020, 09:06:57 PM »
@Kobe Bryant I feel like your post belongs in this thread so I’m continuing the discussion here.

Where are these numbers from? Is there an international leaderboard for vaccine doses distributed and administered, would be nice to see such data, especially alongside a population count to show % vaccinated.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Israel has since doubled to 1.5%
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #392 on: December 23, 2020, 09:20:28 PM »
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Israel has since doubled to 1.5%

Nice, so proud of Israel. How soon will they be getting enough vaccines for the entire population?
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #393 on: December 23, 2020, 09:23:28 PM »

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #396 on: December 23, 2020, 09:41:39 PM »
Nice, so proud of Israel. How soon will they be getting enough vaccines for the entire population?
They don't reveal the amount of vaccines delivered, but they are ramping up vaccination for all populations so there doesn't seem to be any constraint from that side.

Israel did 65k today, by next week they are starting to vaccinate at old age homes, general population at hospital clinics, and splitting shipments to smaller vaccination points. It should hit 80-120k/day if not more.

Israel has 300k 80+ (54% of deaths), around 1.4m 60+. If you assume 60% of the vaccines are going to the correct priority groups, you need around 3m ppl to be vaccinated, which is around 30 days for dose 1 and 60 days for dose 2.

Expect Covid to be all but over by Purim once the hospitals are empty and a few consecutive days with zero deaths.

I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to get closer to 200k/day with the military setting up a few mass vaccination sites, that would mean ~6m people can get a first dose by the end of Janurary, so everybody who wants a vaccine will get it by Purim, and borders wide open for tourists from all over the world by Pesach.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #397 on: December 23, 2020, 11:48:36 PM »
They don't reveal the amount of vaccines delivered, but they are ramping up vaccination for all populations so there doesn't seem to be any constraint from that side.

Israel did 65k today, by next week they are starting to vaccinate at old age homes, general population at hospital clinics, and splitting shipments to smaller vaccination points. It should hit 80-120k/day if not more.

Israel has 300k 80+ (54% of deaths), around 1.4m 60+. If you assume 60% of the vaccines are going to the correct priority groups, you need around 3m ppl to be vaccinated, which is around 30 days for dose 1 and 60 days for dose 2.

Expect Covid to be all but over by Purim once the hospitals are empty and a few consecutive days with zero deaths.

I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to get closer to 200k/day with the military setting up a few mass vaccination sites, that would mean ~6m people can get a first dose by the end of Janurary, so everybody who wants a vaccine will get it by Purim, and borders wide open for tourists from all over the world by Pesach.

Hopefully they have access to enough doses to sustain this scenario. “Few consecutive days with zero deaths” isn’t going to happen immediately because R”L deaths lag and there can be people already on a vent who won’t recover.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #398 on: December 24, 2020, 12:16:42 AM »
Hopefully they have access to enough doses to sustain this scenario. “Few consecutive days with zero deaths” isn’t going to happen immediately because R”L deaths lag and there can be people already on a vent who won’t recover.
Hopefully before Pesach.

They still didn't even start using Moderna's vaccines, which they were getting the first batch of the Swiss production. I really don't think there will be a lack of doses in Israel. They wouldn't be going full throttle if they feared that.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline justaregularguy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #399 on: December 24, 2020, 12:29:01 AM »
Which country will let me get it the earliest? Looks like isreal no?
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