Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 81852 times)

Offline S209

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #540 on: January 12, 2021, 11:01:06 AM »
Was "global herd immunity" really your intent behind the OP??
No.
True but there are still a lot of hurdles.
https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/merck-ceo-ken-frazier-speaks-about-a-covid-cure-racism-and-why-leaders-need-to-walk-the-talk
 “I think when people tell the public that there's going to be a vaccine by the end of 2020, for example, I think they do a grave disservice to the public.”

Some are saying mid 2021 but that’s still the better part of a year.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24U0WN
It does appear that as OP began to realize his prediction was way off he started shifting arguments to global immunity. But the subject under dispute early was clearly whether or not there would be a mass produced vaccine.

In other news, how’s the second wave length prediction doing?
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #541 on: January 12, 2021, 12:14:44 PM »
Cuomo says NY eligibility to expand to 65+ but he expects demand to exceed supply (which means you might be eligible but you'll have to wait for a vaccine to be available to you:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/cuomo-says-new-york-will-accept-new-federal-guidance-opening-covid-vaccine-eligibility-to-65.html
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Offline av83

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #542 on: January 12, 2021, 02:33:53 PM »
Where can a 70+ (NY Resident) get a vaccine in NY or NJ Asap?

Offline biobook

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #543 on: January 12, 2021, 02:47:55 PM »
Where can a 70+ (NY Resident) get a vaccine in NY or NJ Asap?
Ask your health care provider. 
Maybe this will help:
https://vaccinefinder.nyc.gov/

Offline yungermanchik

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #544 on: January 12, 2021, 02:54:10 PM »
Where can a 70+ (NY Resident) get a vaccine in NY or NJ Asap?
go to each of the various websites and reload every so often until a cancelation causes a slot to open up and quickly sign up.
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Offline Tobias129

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #545 on: January 12, 2021, 03:40:27 PM »
Looking to get my parents in their 70's vaccinated in MD area any ideas?

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #546 on: January 12, 2021, 07:55:53 PM »
Johnson & Johnson’s phase III data should be out shortly, can’t wait to see the results:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine-could-alter-the-course-of-the-pandemic-investors-will-soon-know-if-it-works-51610459381

Anyone read anything recent about this vaccine that isn’t stated in this article?
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Offline Traveler718

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #547 on: January 12, 2021, 08:20:51 PM »
The fact that they're planning to submit to the FDA on 1/21 - day after the inauguration when all problems will go away - makes me optimistic.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #548 on: January 13, 2021, 12:19:14 AM »
The fact that they're planning to submit to the FDA on 1/21 - day after the inauguration when all problems will go away - makes me optimistic.

I don’t think that was the plan, that’s when this article states they expect to have enough data, but it could take a bit longer and they’ll submit to FDA in February.
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Offline yzj

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #549 on: January 13, 2021, 10:43:21 AM »
No.It does appear that as OP began to realize his prediction was way off he started shifting arguments to global immunity. But the subject under dispute early was clearly whether or not there would be a mass produced vaccine.

In other news, how’s the second wave length prediction doing?

https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/07/29/johns-hopkins-press-conference-coronavirus-pandemic-latest/

Can any places other than China keep up social distancing protocols for another 15 months? Or are we going to continue to see increasing flare-up and waves as countries throw in the towel?

I don’t think I could have been clearer.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #550 on: January 13, 2021, 11:42:10 AM »
I don’t think that was the plan, that’s when this article states they expect to have enough data, but it could take a bit longer and they’ll submit to FDA in February.

From the article you cited:

Bloomberg also reported on Monday that the study would be ready to submit to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorization on Jan. 21, citing a report in a South African newspaper.

I read that as saying they'll be actually submitting for approval it at that time. But even if they'll only have the data to release then but won't apply to the FDA until later (why wait?), I would assume they'll still want the headlines on "Isru Chag" to be positive and upbeat.

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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #552 on: January 13, 2021, 12:43:04 PM »
https://twitter.com/dr_dmorgan/status/1349361547638837249?s=21

Yes, though the data will lag by months due to time it takes to build immunity and the lag of death data. Also, this assumes case counts outside nursing homes remain level, of those keep rising...

Also, off the cuff the 45% number sounds high, is it accurate?
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #553 on: January 13, 2021, 12:52:08 PM »
Yes, though the data will lag by months due to time it takes to build immunity and the lag of death data. Also, this assumes case counts outside nursing homes remain level, of those keep rising...

Also, off the cuff the 45% number sounds high, is it accurate?
The NYT has it at 36% (136,000), however it notes some states don't provide data on NH deaths, so those would be additional. There are 30,000 facilities that had a Covid case, so an average of 5-6 deaths doesn't sound that high. Either way, 75% is a actually a pretty impressive number. At most a week or two behind Israel where logistics are far easier.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #554 on: January 13, 2021, 12:57:57 PM »
Yes, though the data will lag by months due to time it takes to build immunity and the lag of death data. Also, this assumes case counts outside nursing homes remain level, of those keep rising...

Also, off the cuff the 45% number sounds high, is it accurate?
Deaths will definitely lag, but new hospitalizations should drop very significantly.

The NYT has it at 36% (136,000), however it notes some states don't provide data on NH deaths, so those would be additional. There are 30,000 facilities that had a Covid case, so an average of 5-6 deaths doesn't sound that high. Either way, 75% is a actually a pretty impressive number. At most a week or two behind Israel where logistics are far easier.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html
Add the shenanagins that Cuomo played and the real number of NH deaths is much higher.


According to that NYT link, there were over 1.1 million cases in NHs, and according to your tweet there are currently 1.3 million NH residents. It sounds like nearly every NH resident around the country already got COVID.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #555 on: January 13, 2021, 12:59:58 PM »
The NYT has it at 36% (136,000), however it notes some states don't provide data on NH deaths, so those would be additional. There are 30,000 facilities that had a Covid case, so an average of 5-6 deaths doesn't sound that high. Either way, 75% is a actually a pretty impressive number. At most a week or two behind Israel where logistics are far easier.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html

Nursing home logistics are the easiest piece here.

Predictable/known number of residents, fixed locations, they have all the time in the world and can be found in their rooms, staffing on site to administer vaccines, management has every incentive to vaccinate their residents so they’ll put in the effort to do what needs to be done. Basically all it takes is coordinating when and where to deliver the doses to.

Also, the 75% means first dose, no? Israelis are already administering the 2nd dose.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #556 on: January 13, 2021, 01:01:19 PM »
Deaths will definitely lag, but new hospitalizations should drop very significantly.
Add the shenanagins that Cuomo played and the real number of NH deaths is much higher.


According to that NYT link, there were over 1.1 million cases in NHs, and according to your tweet there are currently 1.3 million NH residents. It sounds like nearly every NH resident around the country already got COVID.
1.1m is over a year, 1.3m is current. I don't know if my tweet is accurate or not, but it's possible there were twice as many residents over the year or more, I'm sure there is some turnover and many left or died.
Also, the 75% means first dose, no? Israelis are already administering the 2nd dose.
They're not up to the second dose yet for NHs, that should be next week. But a week or two here or there isn't critical, the US government has checks and balances, it can't operate like the souk Israel is
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Offline S209

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #557 on: January 14, 2021, 12:51:03 AM »
I don’t think I could have been clearer.
Agreed.
True but there are still a lot of hurdles.
https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/merck-ceo-ken-frazier-speaks-about-a-covid-cure-racism-and-why-leaders-need-to-walk-the-talk
 “I think when people tell the public that there's going to be a vaccine by the end of 2020, for example, I think they do a grave disservice to the public.”

Some are saying mid 2021 but that’s still the better part of a year.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24U0WN
If anything, thinking that lots of money = vaccine in a few months when it’s never been done in less than four years is a boich sevara. Here what some who have been in the vaccine industry for decades have to say about it:
https://www.cgdev.org/blog/vaccine-preliminary-results-here-why-we-need-exercise-caution

https://theconversation.com/fast-covid-19-vaccine-timelines-are-unrealistic-and-put-the-integrity-of-scientists-at-risk-139824

This NYT article is older but it gives some insight into the process:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html
Considering both of my living grandparents have already been vaccinated as of early January, I think this discussion is pretty much over. Again.
In other news, how’s the second wave length prediction doing?
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #558 on: January 14, 2021, 01:00:31 AM »
Agreed.Considering both of my living grandparents have already been vaccinated as of early January, I think this discussion is pretty much over. Again.
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Offline Jerseysteve

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