Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 81685 times)

Online AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #600 on: January 18, 2021, 12:55:46 PM »
It would make sense to study it, but who has the financial incentive to do so?

Clinical trials are expensive and are usually paid for by pharmaceutical companies for the potential financial gain. Pfizer prefers you stay in doubt about immunity from the infection and take their vaccine.

All that tells us about is their bias, it doesn’t change the facts.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #601 on: January 18, 2021, 01:03:37 PM »
Clinical trials are expensive and are usually paid for by pharmaceutical companies for the potential financial gain. Pfizer prefers you stay in doubt about immunity from the infection and take their vaccine.

All that tells us about is their bias, it doesn’t change the facts.
Correct, but in that case will will be left with maybes and therefore this may be the best we will get.
So if you had Covid, you should be vaccinated to help retain the immune response.  Do you really need two doses, or is one enough? The answer is that hasn’t been studied, so we really can’t answer that.  Perhaps taking only one dose would make sense, as a way to save doses for others.  But what we do know is that two doses work.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #603 on: January 18, 2021, 02:38:10 PM »
The situation continues to remain a national embarrassment - why are we still not doing vaccines 24/7?

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Offline Traveler718

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #605 on: January 18, 2021, 04:03:35 PM »
The situation continues to remain a national embarrassment - why are we still not doing vaccines 24/7?

NYC's designated 24/7 vaccination site closed after running out of vaccines - you can't make this stuff up!

https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus-updates-247-brooklyn-vaccination-site-closes-due-lack-doses

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #606 on: January 18, 2021, 06:40:50 PM »
Cuomo wants to buy vaccine for NY directly from Pfizer to bypass federal bottlenecks:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cuomo-wants-new-york-buy-covid-vaccine-directly-pfizer-n1254605

Offline how

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #607 on: January 18, 2021, 06:55:26 PM »
Cuomo wants to buy vaccine for NY directly from Pfizer to bypass federal bottlenecks:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cuomo-wants-new-york-buy-covid-vaccine-directly-pfizer-n1254605
Finally. What took so long

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #608 on: January 18, 2021, 07:55:01 PM »
Finally. What took so long
The last thing we need is states bidding against each other for vaccine deliveries
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #609 on: January 18, 2021, 08:39:20 PM »
Cuomo wants to buy vaccine for NY directly from Pfizer to bypass federal bottlenecks:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cuomo-wants-new-york-buy-covid-vaccine-directly-pfizer-n1254605

Wouldn’t this be good for Pfizer? They already have a commitment from the federal government, and now they can sell more domestically?

Or are Pfizer’s constraints all supply-side and they can’t produce more anyhow.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #610 on: January 18, 2021, 09:12:36 PM »
Wouldn’t this be good for Pfizer? They already have a commitment from the federal government, and now they can sell more domestically?

Or are Pfizer’s constraints all supply-side and they can’t produce more anyhow.
can they deliver?

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #611 on: January 18, 2021, 09:14:05 PM »
The last thing we need is states bidding against each other for vaccine deliveries
This is an emergency situation and all options should be on the table. I would also like to buy direct. If Amazon or Walmart were running the vaccination program we would be way ahead - instead it is running like the USPS.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #612 on: January 18, 2021, 10:49:04 PM »
This is an emergency situation and all options should be on the table. I would also like to buy direct. If Amazon or Walmart were running the vaccination program we would be way ahead - instead it is running like the USPS.

The issue is that these are politicians who are fighting, and for their honor, not for your safety and well-being. In the private sector competition leads to efficiency, within government it could just lead to a power struggle further delays.
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Offline Ergel

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #613 on: January 19, 2021, 08:16:22 AM »
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/virus-czar-says-1st-dose-less-effective-than-pfizer-suggested-report/
I hope this doesn't prove true about the vaccine as a whole :(

And - really bad idea to skip the second dose
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline biobook

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #614 on: January 19, 2021, 09:20:39 AM »
I was taken by his attitude more than his knowledge.
+1,000,000
His humility and שם שמים שגור בפיו is what makes him so convincing
Agree.  And that comes across in the video much more than in my shorter summary, which is why I recommend that everyone watch the video.

I heard (and read) that. Yet all he is saying is ....

But he's ignoring the issue of ...
Please don't draw any conclusions about Dr. B based on my summary!  It isn't a word-for-word transcript.  I tried to extract and condense and explain, but in the process of selecting what seemed to me to be most important, I may have misrepresented something that was most important to you.  I'll go back and look at this point.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #615 on: January 19, 2021, 09:45:30 AM »
Thank you very much for writing this out
I am looking for more info on this. Does a positive antibody test after the vaccine prove that you immune or is just picking up the vaccine?
Antibody can be produced in two cases: when you are infected with the virus, and when you get the vaccine. Antibody looks the same in both cases.  The antibody test just picks up antibody, and the test doesn't "know" whether the antibody had been made in response to the virus or to the vaccine. 

A positive antibody test doesn't "prove" that you are immune, that is, we don't yet know how much antibody you need to be considered immune.  But whatever that number is, it shouldn't matter whether you got there as a result of getting covid, or as a result of getting the vaccine.   
Quote
I have heard this as speculation that the mono antibodies will fight the vaccine. I didn't realize it was accepted
Monoclonal antibodies are being studied very actively, to see exactly when and how they might fight the virus.   I think the current understanding is that they help some people when given very early in the disease. 

But in any event, Dr B didn't discuss whether the treatment works.  He was only saying that IF you got that treatment, then you have antibodies in your blood that will last about three months, so there's no need to take the vaccine immediately.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #616 on: January 19, 2021, 12:44:44 PM »
But he's ignoring the issue of having the actual infection as the prime, with one dose of the vaccine as the boost.
No, he's not ignoring that issue.  He mentions the prime-boost concept, then asks re: those who've recovered from covid,  "Good question is do I really need two doses, or is one dose enough?  And the answer to that is that I don't know. I don't know the answer to that because that's not been studied. And it's plausible and makes sense that possibly that would be an approach - maybe a way of saving some doses or whatever.  But we just don't know..."

Quote
The people asking whether those with antibodies should take the vaccine aren't concerned that "they would have less immune response, or get more sick, or have more side effects"

Boruch Hashem!  You were saved from worrying about those possibilities!  But the experts working on the vaccine were, in fact, worried about them, based on their experience with other vaccines and based on some observations of Covid.  But what he says is that although we're not dismissing those possibilities out of hand, the available evidence right now suggests that we don't have to be concerned about them. 
Quote
...on the contrary, they are questioning to what extent the vaccine is necessary, and if indeed it would give a boost (in a safer way than re-exposure to the actual virus, that would most likely also give a boost) wouldn't a single dose be enough?
And he answers "...we just don't know."  He thinks it's a reasonable question to ask, but since the study hasn't been done, we have no evidence on which to base a definite answer.  And "What we do know, is that two vaccine doses work..."

Quote
And if "we don't know" why not test it, there are millions of people that recovered and have antibodies? And if we're concerned about the inverted U curve he described as far as the immune system vs the severity of the disease, then why not test it primarily with those that had mild or moderate symptoms yet developed antibodies?
Last summer, there were millions of people who had recovered from Covid, and billions of people who had not gotten it.  The priority was testing a vaccine to protect the billions, and it took about 5 months to do that - recruiting subjects, giving the vaccine, and watching till a significant number developed Covid.  Waiting for a significant number of post-Covid subjects to develop Covid would take that much longer, because they have some degree of immunity, so let's say at least a year or two to get results.

We can't wait for that study to be done, so public health experts need to make a decision in the face of this uncertainty.  But this is always the case.  Doctors always have to treat the patient in front of them today, despite lacking complete certainty about the best treatment. 

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #617 on: January 19, 2021, 05:30:25 PM »
But he's ignoring the issue of having the actual infection as the prime, with one dose of the vaccine as the boost. The people asking whether those with antibodies should take the vaccine aren't concerned that "they would have less immune response, or get more sick, or have more side effects" on the contrary, they are questioning to what extent the vaccine is necessary, and if indeed it would give a boost (in a safer way than re-exposure to the actual virus, that would most likely also give a boost) wouldn't a single dose be enough? And if "we don't know" why not test it, there are millions of people that recovered and have antibodies? And if we're concerned about the inverted U curve he described as far as the immune system vs the severity of the disease, then why not test it primarily with those that had mild or moderate symptoms yet developed antibodies?

I actually emailed him today and was surprised at the fast and detailed response (with a request not to forward, as everyone's situation is different).

In his email response again his wonderful attitude came across.

Oh, how much the world is missing by not having him as the policymaker or at least spokesperson for guidelines.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #618 on: January 19, 2021, 07:02:29 PM »
Oh, how much the world is missing by not having him as the policymaker or at least spokesperson for guidelines.

In today’s world humility isn’t valued and people with that trait don’t often end up in policy-making positions.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #619 on: January 19, 2021, 08:42:22 PM »
I actually emailed him today and was surprised at the fast and detailed response (with a request not to forward, as everyone's situation is different).

In his email response again his wonderful attitude came across.

Oh, how much the world is missing by not having him as the policymaker or at least spokesperson for guidelines.
Fantastic!  Aseh lecha rofeh is not easy, and it's great when you find one you can trust.