Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 38386 times)

Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #640 on: January 20, 2021, 07:54:12 PM »

Online zh cohen

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #641 on: January 20, 2021, 08:51:42 PM »
It looks like the goal of 100m is like a participation trophy.


Will it be possible to keep up this pace after those most eager to get it are done?

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #642 on: January 20, 2021, 08:55:11 PM »
Will it be possible to keep up this pace after those most eager to get it are done?
Second doses will clog the system too.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #643 on: January 20, 2021, 09:09:00 PM »
Second doses will clog the system too.

Itíll be a nightmare because of the logistics. I simply donít trust ďthe systemĒ to get it right.

Which is part of why I think the litmus test for Biden should be 100m vaccinated people (at least the first dose), not 100m doses administered (which could include 40m or more 2nd doses).

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #644 on: January 20, 2021, 09:11:31 PM »
Itíll be a nightmare because of the logistics. I simply donít trust ďthe systemĒ to get it right.

Which is part of why I think the litmus test for Biden should be 100m vaccinated people (at least the first dose), not 100m doses administered (which could include 40m or more 2nd doses).
I agree but I don't know if 100m first doses is feasible from a production standpoint. The current 900k/day is before states are running out of doses, as they are this week.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #645 on: January 20, 2021, 09:19:37 PM »
I agree but I don't know if 100m first doses is feasible from a production standpoint. The current 900k/day is before states are running out of doses, as they are this week.

Biden will hit 100 days by the end of April. By then itís very likely heíll have a month or two of J&Jís vaccine EUA, and that vaccine is less of a logistical nightmare and requires only a single dose. Thereís also the Defense Production Act that could increase production output. Lastly, do we know if Moderna has fully scaled-up their domestic production capacity?

Offline how

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #646 on: January 20, 2021, 09:26:27 PM »
Biden will hit 100 days by the end of April. By then itís very likely heíll have a month or two of J&Jís vaccine EUA, and that vaccine is less of a logistical nightmare and requires only a single dose. Thereís also the Defense Production Act that could increase production output. Lastly, do we know if Moderna has fully scaled-up their domestic production capacity?
didnt Johnson announce a production delay that pushed them to June

Online AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #647 on: January 20, 2021, 11:18:56 PM »
didnt Johnson announce a production delay that pushed them to June

I donít recall seeing. That. J&J has been making vaccines since forever and was talking about 1-1.3b doses distributed in 2021.

Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #648 on: January 21, 2021, 07:19:18 AM »
Why are so many people catching covid from the vaccines, if these are MRNA vaccines not containing live or even dead virus, from which is was said to be (and in theory should be) impossible to contract covid from?

I haven't seen anything good online explaining this phenomenon.

(The numbers submitted to the FDA proving the efficacy of the vaccine seem to be hogwash. Well over 1 in 10,000 people seem to be contracting covid from the vaccination.)

Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #649 on: January 21, 2021, 07:32:53 AM »
Why are so many people catching covid from the vaccines, if these are MRNA vaccines not containing live or even dead virus, from which is was said to be (and in theory should be) impossible to contract covid from?

I haven't seen anything good online explaining this phenomenon.

(The numbers submitted to the FDA proving the efficacy of the vaccine seem to be hogwash. Well over 1 in 10,000 people seem to be contracting covid from the vaccination.)

Where did you see people are catching Covid from the vaccine? What is happening is that you do not develop antibodies until 14+ days from first dose, and you are not completely protected until a week after the second dose. Hence people who took the first dose can still catch from someone else. It seems from data from Israel that one dose is less protective than they claimed but after 2 doses it is working well.

Offline how

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #650 on: January 21, 2021, 08:37:47 AM »
I donít recall seeing. That. J&J has been making vaccines since forever and was talking about 1-1.3b doses distributed in 2021.
I didnít read this article but itís the first result of a Google search https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine-updates%3A-efficacy-figures-production-delays-2021-01-20
They announce a production delay last Wednesday

Online AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #651 on: January 21, 2021, 08:47:21 AM »
I donít recall seeing. That. J&J has been making vaccines since forever and was talking about 1-1.3b doses distributed in 2021.

Iím seeing this now:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/health/covid-vaccine-johnson-johnson.html

Looks like they expect to have some doses in March or April. June was the original target date for delivery of 100m doses.

Offline biobook

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #652 on: January 21, 2021, 09:50:56 AM »
Why are so many people catching covid from the vaccines, if these are MRNA vaccines not containing live or even dead virus, from which is was said to be (and in theory should be) impossible to contract covid from?

You're hearing about people catching covid after vaccination, but there's no way they can catch it from the vaccine itself.  Here are a few possibilities:

1. They caught covid BEFORE they got the vaccine.  It takes an average of 5 days for symptoms to appear, but can be as much as 2-3 weeks later.  During that interval they got the vaccine, and mistakenly thought that the vaccine caused covid, but they really were already infected before they got the vaccine.

2. They caught covid DURING the time they went for the vaccine.  The most vulnerable people have been isolating at home, and when they go for the vaccine they may come in contact with people who are infected - for example, during the ride in a car or bus on the way to the vaccination place, or while sitting with other people who are waiting for the injection, or who are resting briefly after getting it.

3. They caught covid in the days AFTER the vaccine.  The vaccine is not immediately effective.  It takes a couple of weeks to start building up immunity, and only after the second injection does it become very strong.  Even then, it's not 100%, so people need to continue to take precautions. 

Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #653 on: January 21, 2021, 10:09:25 AM »
You're hearing about people catching covid after vaccination, but there's no way they can catch it from the vaccine itself.  Here are a few possibilities:

1. They caught covid BEFORE they got the vaccine.  It takes an average of 5 days for symptoms to appear, but can be as much as 2-3 weeks later.  During that interval they got the vaccine, and mistakenly thought that the vaccine caused covid, but they really were already infected before they got the vaccine.

2. They caught covid DURING the time they went for the vaccine.  The most vulnerable people have been isolating at home, and when they go for the vaccine they may come in contact with people who are infected - for example, during the ride in a car or bus on the way to the vaccination place, or while sitting with other people who are waiting for the injection, or who are resting briefly after getting it.

3. They caught covid in the days AFTER the vaccine.  The vaccine is not immediately effective.  It takes a couple of weeks to start building up immunity, and only after the second injection does it become very strong.  Even then, it's not 100%, so people need to continue to take precautions.

A few cases could be explained like this, but there seem to be too many cases for it to be statistically plausible for these explanations to suffice in explaining away the infections as unrelated to the vaccine. I personally know multiple people that seemingly contracted covid from the vaccine; I have family members in healthcare and vaccination administration that have numerous patients that seem to have caught it from the vaccine. Scientifically, this should be impossible, unless there is something but being disclosed about the vaccine contents.

Offline how

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #654 on: January 21, 2021, 10:10:51 AM »
You're hearing about people catching covid after vaccination, but there's no way they can catch it from the vaccine itself.  Here are a few possibilities:

1. They caught covid BEFORE they got the vaccine.  It takes an average of 5 days for symptoms to appear, but can be as much as 2-3 weeks later.  During that interval they got the vaccine, and mistakenly thought that the vaccine caused covid, but they really were already infected before they got the vaccine.

2. They caught covid DURING the time they went for the vaccine.  The most vulnerable people have been isolating at home, and when they go for the vaccine they may come in contact with people who are infected - for example, during the ride in a car or bus on the way to the vaccination place, or while sitting with other people who are waiting for the injection, or who are resting briefly after getting it.

3. They caught covid in the days AFTER the vaccine.  The vaccine is not immediately effective.  It takes a couple of weeks to start building up immunity, and only after the second injection does it become very strong.  Even then, it's not 100%, so people need to continue to take precautions.
All good points. One more thing is that after getting back vaccinated people loosen up and are not as careful. Especially in areas where the virus is spiking this can lead to exposure

Offline biobook

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #655 on: January 21, 2021, 10:24:57 AM »
A few cases could be explained like this, but there seem to be too many cases for it to be statistically plausible for these explanations to suffice in explaining away the infections as unrelated to the vaccine. I personally know multiple people that seemingly contracted covid from the vaccine; I have family members in healthcare and vaccination administration that have numerous patients that seem to have caught it from the vaccine. Scientifically, this should be impossible, unless there is something but being disclosed about the vaccine contents.

Could you explain a little better how  you conclude that it's scientifically impossible?
1. What number of cases would make it statistically plausible? 
2. For the people you know who contracted covid around the time of vaccination, can you ask them about their experiences at the three times I mentioned?  That is, do they recall any instances of being near other possibly-infected people in the days before or after vaccination?  Do they recall being seated near other people in a small room just before, during, or after the injection?

Online Ergel

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #656 on: January 21, 2021, 10:26:35 AM »
You are as likely to get pregnant from getting the vaccine as you are to get COVID
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Online Yehuda57

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #657 on: January 21, 2021, 10:27:03 AM »
All good points. One more thing is that after getting back vaccinated people loosen up and are not as careful. Especially in areas where the virus is spiking this can lead to exposure

Yup, seen this first hand.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #658 on: January 21, 2021, 10:38:44 AM »
You are as likely to get pregnant from getting the vaccine as you are to get COVID
So that's how it works!  They skipped that in my high school biology class.

Online Yehuda57

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #659 on: January 21, 2021, 10:43:08 AM »
You are as likely to get pregnant from getting the vaccine as you are to get COVID

Well that clinches it. I was worried about the 5g chips, seizures, Communism, and autism, but was still planning on getting vaccinated. But pregnancy? זאת לא.
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