Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 81675 times)

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #660 on: January 21, 2021, 10:56:16 AM »
Could you explain a little better how  you conclude that it's scientifically impossible?
1. What number of cases would make it statistically plausible? 
2. For the people you know who contracted covid around the time of vaccination, can you ask them about their experiences at the three times I mentioned?  That is, do they recall any instances of being near other possibly-infected people in the days before or after vaccination?  Do they recall being seated near other people in a small room just before, during, or after the injection?

At first I thought the 10k number sounded high, but crunching the numbers now it doesn’t sound that high after all.

10k/2.7m is 1:270. With 8-10k positives daily in Israel (including those vaccinated), that’s 1:1000 every day, which over the past month would mean 200-300k Israelis (including the 10k you cite who were vaccinated) tested posifivd.

10k/200k would be exactly 95% efficacy. Obviously we didn’t consider that of those 2.7m already vaccinated, more of those can get infected, but we also didn’t consider that it takes time for antibodies to build up.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #661 on: January 21, 2021, 10:57:32 AM »
5g chips, seizures, Communism, and autism

All of those cause pregnancy (and COVID) as well.
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Offline aygart

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #662 on: January 21, 2021, 03:08:39 PM »
Well that clinches it. I was worried about the 5g chips, seizures, Communism, and autism, but was still planning on getting vaccinated. But pregnancy? זאת לא.
Don't worry-Obamacare covers your pregnancy.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #663 on: January 21, 2021, 03:51:23 PM »
Well that clinches it. I was worried about the 5g chips, seizures, Communism, and autism, but was still planning on getting vaccinated. But pregnancy? זאת לא.

It would give new meaning to the poll in this thread.
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #664 on: January 21, 2021, 03:52:37 PM »
Don't worry-Obamacare covers your pregnancy.

I'm not certain about that. Case in point, on the New York State exchange, any female over the age of 12 is asked whether she is pregnant, there's no such question for males, even if they select female as their gender identity.
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Offline aygart

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #665 on: January 21, 2021, 06:04:41 PM »
I'm not certain about that. Case in point, on the New York State exchange, any female over the age of 12 is asked whether she is pregnant, there's no such question for males, even if they select female as their gender identity.
What about females who select male?

I think the requirement is federal, but they don't need to ask if they know the answer.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Traveler718

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #666 on: January 22, 2021, 02:04:19 PM »
A frum woman who participated in the Moderna trial and received the vaccine and had confirmed antibodies in September has now reported a severe case of COVID that she caught from her husband 2 days after Moderna released preliminary results of 94.5% effectiveness - not good news!

https://www.imamother.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=399108

Update: She got the placebo. So much for that. Still interesting that she somehow tested for high antibodies mid-trial after receiving the placebo and not getting sick until much later.

https://www.imamother.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=399108&start=100

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #667 on: January 22, 2021, 02:21:16 PM »
Update: She got the placebo. So much for that. Still interesting that she somehow tested for high antibodies mid-trial after receiving the placebo and not getting sick until much later.

https://www.imamother.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=399108&start=100

So she’s a confirmed case of reinfection with high antibodies (with the first infection presumably with little or no symptoms). I guess her antibodies faded and/or she was infected with another strain. Things we don’t have enough data on.

Uncommon, but it does happen.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #668 on: January 22, 2021, 03:19:55 PM »
So she’s a confirmed case of reinfection with high antibodies (with the first infection presumably with little or no symptoms). I guess her antibodies faded and/or she was infected with another strain. Things we don’t have enough data on.

Uncommon, but it does happen.
Or antibodies were a false positive.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #669 on: January 22, 2021, 03:59:49 PM »
Or antibodies were a false positive.

On a quantitative test? Does that make any sense?
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #670 on: January 23, 2021, 07:49:59 PM »
On a quantitative test? Does that make any sense?
There have been people who got PCR results for the wrong person, they may have gotten someone elses results.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #671 on: January 23, 2021, 08:07:41 PM »
There have been people who got PCR results for the wrong person, they may have gotten someone elses results.

Much less likely to happen if the antibody tests were part of clinical trial data (not sure whether that’s the case here or not). I would assume they’re much more careful with that.
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Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #672 on: January 23, 2021, 10:23:28 PM »
It bears noting that if 99.5% of people will not get Covid twice, still statistically 5 out of 1000 (even 99.9 will get 1 in a 1000) will get reinfected - meaning in Lakewood where many thousands were infected you will hear cases of being infected twice. That should not change the fact that one who got it is very very unlikely to get it twice.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2021, 10:30:03 PM by Jerseysteve »

Offline Jerseysteve

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Offline incendia

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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #675 on: January 23, 2021, 10:55:20 PM »
It bears noting that if 99.5% of people will not get Covid twice, still statistically 5 out of 1000 (even 99.9 will get 1 in a 1000) will get reinfected - meaning in Lakewood where many thousands were infected you will hear cases of being infected twice. That should not change the fact that one who got it is very very unlikely to get it twice.

Your source for .5% reinfection rate?
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #676 on: January 23, 2021, 10:57:54 PM »
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/22/health/pfizer-vaccine.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Health

Why is this just coming to light now? It's a 20% increase in available doses and if the 6th dose wasn't drawn and injected 1/6 doses have been tossed (for vials already administered and discarded).
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Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #677 on: January 23, 2021, 11:01:26 PM »
Your source for .5% reinfection rate?
The point I was trying to make is even if the reinfection rate is very very low still with such a large community we are going to hear some cases and no one should get nervous every time they hear about one.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #678 on: January 23, 2021, 11:03:23 PM »
The point I was trying to make is even if the reinfection rate is very very low still with such a large community we are going to hear some cases and no one should get nervous every time they hear about one.

I agree that it's much less common than a 1st infection, but without real data we don't know exactly how risky it and under which circumstances it might be more common (e.g. maybe research will discover that reinfection is more common in older people or in people whose first infection was asymptomatic).
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Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #679 on: January 23, 2021, 11:04:09 PM »
Why is this just coming to light now? It's a 20% increase in available doses and if the 6th dose wasn't drawn and injected 1/6 doses have been tossed (for vials already administered and discarded).
This was reported several weeks ago https://www.wltz.com/2020/12/29/fda-okay-to-use-extra-dose-from-pfizer-vaccine-vials/