Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 81740 times)

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #700 on: January 26, 2021, 02:45:09 PM »
This looks like just bottling the vaccine. Actual production would be amazing, but it's a giant leap from this.

100m starting in July? This is too little too late IMHO. Yes it’s good news, but not enough to really change the game. I saw talk of Australia producing AZN’s vaccine domestically at CSL, what I think we need is more initiatives like that so that production can somehow be franchised out.

ETA: By July Sanofi could already have or be close to EUA for their own protein-based COVID vaccine...
« Last Edit: January 26, 2021, 02:48:49 PM by AsherO »
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Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #701 on: January 26, 2021, 02:47:26 PM »
10m from July? This is too little too late IMHO. Yes it’s good news, but not enough to really change the game. I saw talk of Australia producing AZN’s vaccine domestically at CSL, what I think we need is more initiatives like that so that production can somehow be franchised out.

Right.  And then even after production is ramped up (however they do it) they also need to get their act together to get the shot into people's arms.  That has been excessively slow as well in the USA.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #702 on: January 26, 2021, 02:51:56 PM »
Right.  And then even after production is ramped up (however they do it) they also need to get their act together to get the shot into people's arms.  That has been excessively slow as well in the USA.

A vaccine like J&J’s that’s shelf stable is less of a logistical challenge to distribute, combined with supply that exceeds demand, will make for less of an imperative to strictly regulate distribution to healthcare workers, the elderly, and other at-risk populations.

Any word on how much of a difference invoking the Defense Production Act will have on vaccine production?
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #703 on: January 26, 2021, 02:59:30 PM »
This looks like just bottling the vaccine. Actual production would be amazing, but it's a giant leap from this.
Aargh, the devil is in the details.

I saw talk of Australia producing AZN’s vaccine domestically at CSL, what I think we need is more initiatives like that so that production can somehow be franchised out.
AZN vaccine is pro-bono so a different ballgame. India is producing it as well.

Any word on how much of a difference invoking the Defense Production Act will have on vaccine production?
The Trump admin used the DPA as well, the question is what can be done. I think Pfizer production isn't in the US (likely for this reason), but they can stop Moderna from exporting from the US plant (if they are).

I'll repeat my opinion the government should be buying the IP and publicizing the recipe. Pfizer is a $200b chokehold on humanity now.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Ergel

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #704 on: January 26, 2021, 03:03:48 PM »
Aargh, the devil is in the details.
AZN vaccine is pro-bono so a different ballgame. India is producing it as well.
The Trump admin used the DPA as well, the question is what can be done. I think Pfizer production isn't in the US (likely for this reason), but they can stop Moderna from exporting from the US plant (if they are).

I'll repeat my opinion the government should be buying the IP and publicizing the recipe. Pfizer is a $200b chokehold on humanity now.
Only problem is, we don't really know if AZN vaccine works
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #705 on: January 26, 2021, 03:05:13 PM »
Only problem is, we don't really know if AZN vaccine works
Yup, I considered adding in - AZN is pro-bono and hence a giant snafu. Pfizer and Moderna deserve to be rewarded fairly but not infinitely.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2021, 03:11:24 PM by PlatinumGuy »
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Offline yitzgar

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #706 on: January 26, 2021, 03:09:05 PM »
If that means what it sounds like, I protest strongly against use of profanity

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #707 on: January 26, 2021, 03:11:46 PM »
If that means what it sounds like, I protest strongly against use of profanity
I don't think it was a profanity but I updated it nevertheless
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #708 on: January 26, 2021, 04:26:34 PM »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #709 on: January 26, 2021, 04:48:04 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-26/pfizer-to-deliver-u-s-vaccine-doses-faster-than-expected-ceo

200m/2 doses to be delivered to the US by May. The end is near

1. I’ll believe it when I see it.
2. They still have to figure out distribution, too many doses are sitting in storage.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #710 on: January 26, 2021, 04:53:20 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-26/pfizer-to-deliver-u-s-vaccine-doses-faster-than-expected-ceo

200m/2 doses to be delivered to the US by May. The end is near

Another worrisome thing here is this quote from that article:

Quote
While Bourla does not anticipate the coronavirus will be eradicated, he said the pharmaceutical industry has the tools necessary to make the virus like the flu.
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #711 on: January 26, 2021, 04:55:33 PM »
Another worrisome thing here is this quote from that article:
Does anybody really think it will be completely non existent in 5 years? We have to be more specific when we say Covid will still be around.

Also, that statement is tailored for the stock market. The problem will continue for many years, but we have the medicine.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #712 on: January 26, 2021, 04:59:30 PM »
Does anybody really think it will be completely non existent in 5 years? We have to be more specific when we say Covid will still be around.

Also, that statement is tailored for the stock market. The problem will continue for many years, but we have the medicine.

Hundreds of millions of COVID boosters annually is a massive boon for Pfizer, massive!!!
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #713 on: January 26, 2021, 05:02:18 PM »
Hundreds of millions of COVID boosters annually is a massive boon for Pfizer, massive!!!
That's his dream, and the more people dream like that, the thicker his wallet is.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #714 on: January 26, 2021, 06:56:49 PM »
100m starting in July? This is too little too late IMHO. Yes it’s good news, but not enough to really change the game. I saw talk of Australia producing AZN’s vaccine domestically at CSL, what I think we need is more initiatives like that so that production can somehow be franchised out.

ETA: By July Sanofi could already have or be close to EUA for their own protein-based COVID vaccine...
So far all of Bidens "major" COVID announcements have been very underwhelming, starting with his announcement of 100m doses administered in 100 days, we're currently at a 7 day average of 1.25m doses per day. The Trump admin had the option to buy these doses too and they declined because they're not being delivered in a timely manner. What are the odds these doses never end up being used (at least in the US)?
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #715 on: January 26, 2021, 07:27:09 PM »
So far all of Bidens "major" COVID announcements have been very underwhelming, starting with his announcement of 100m doses administered in 100 days, we're currently at a 7 day average of 1.25m doses per day. The Trump admin had the option to buy these doses too and they declined because they're not being delivered in a timely manner. What are the odds these doses never end up being used (at least in the US)?

I don’t understand what you’re asking. What are you suggesting will happen with those doses and if not those doses then what (if anything) are you suggesting will vaccinate the US population?
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Offline yitzgar

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #716 on: January 26, 2021, 07:37:44 PM »
I don't think it was a profanity but I updated it nevertheless
Thank you

Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #717 on: January 27, 2021, 09:20:38 AM »
I don’t understand what you’re asking. What are you suggesting will happen with those doses and if not those doses then what (if anything) are you suggesting will vaccinate the US population?
The previous contracts and other vaccines including J&J.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #718 on: January 27, 2021, 09:29:44 AM »
The previous contracts and other vaccines including J&J.

Lots of variables, my guess is it will be a combination of:
1. Who delivers doses first
2. Efficacy of J&J vaccine
3. Point-of-service availability of J&J vaccine vs. mRNA vaccine
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Offline Dan

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #719 on: January 29, 2021, 09:21:13 AM »
Lots of variables, my guess is it will be a combination of:
1. Who delivers doses first
2. Efficacy of J&J vaccine
3. Point-of-service availability of J&J vaccine vs. mRNA vaccine
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

Ouch.
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