Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 81842 times)

Offline Ergel

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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #721 on: January 29, 2021, 09:30:23 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

Ouch.

I was concerned this might happen:

Lots of variables, my guess is it will be a combination of:
1. Who delivers doses first
2. Efficacy of J&J vaccine
3. Point-of-service availability of J&J vaccine vs. mRNA vaccine

With only 66% efficacy this vaccine barely hits the threshold for mitigating spread/herd immunity. Indeed, it’s a cheap vaccine for the 3rd world.

I wonder how JNJ’s vaccine performs against variants compared to mRNA vaccines. In the unlikely event it performs better (and mRNA boosters for variants take too long to bring to market) that might be a game changer.

ETA: The vaccine efficacy was 72% in the US and 66% globally, which implies an even lower efficacy than 66% outside the US. Tells me:
1. It’s likely less effective against variants
2. It might not be “vaccine for the 3rd world”
« Last Edit: January 29, 2021, 09:36:19 AM by AsherO »
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #722 on: January 29, 2021, 09:32:15 AM »
:(
Not worth it for them to test a 2 dose regimen?

I think I read they were testing this but don’t expect data until the summer.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #723 on: January 29, 2021, 09:37:51 AM »
Stupid question, but if JNJ vaccine is readily available and Moderna/Pfizer require a wait, can I get JNJ now and mRNA later? How risky/foolish is that?
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Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #724 on: January 29, 2021, 09:53:18 AM »
ETA: The vaccine efficacy was 72% in the US and 66% globally, which implies an even lower efficacy than 66% outside the US. Tells me:
1. It’s likely less effective against variants
2. It might not be “vaccine for the 3rd world”

Correct. The article says it was only 57% effective in South Africa due to the "variant known as B.1.351, which is known to be more contagious and carries mutations that may make the virus less susceptible to the antibody immune response -- including antibodies prompted by vaccination."

Not such great news at all :(.

Online yelped

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #725 on: January 29, 2021, 10:05:52 AM »

Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #726 on: January 29, 2021, 11:33:15 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

Ouch.
Quote
Janssen is already testing a two-dose regimen of the vaccine and that could increase the efficacy, Fauci said.
"Let's see what that shows. It could possibly bring it up to 90%," he said. "Heck if you got 72 with a single dose, you would think you would do pretty good with a boost."
:(
Not worth it for them to test a 2 dose regimen?
I think I read they were testing this but don’t expect data until the summer.
Halfway through the trial they started a 2 dose trial with 30k participants, I assume they saw the writing on the wall when there were more cases among the vaccine group than they had hoped for. Considering the efficacy of 1 dose of Pfizer and Moderna are also significantly lower I think there is a good chance the 2 dose has better results.

My guess is they work on EUA and maybe even start administering 1 dose, and when the trial comes back with good news for 2 doses they can immediately start administering second doses.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #727 on: January 29, 2021, 11:34:57 AM »
Halfway through the trial they started a 2 dose trial with 30k participants, I assume they saw the writing on the wall when there were more cases among the vaccine group than they had hoped for. Considering the efficacy of 1 dose of Pfizer and Moderna are also significantly lower I think there is a good chance the 2 dose has better results.

My guess is they work on EUA and maybe even start administering 1 dose, and when the trial comes back with good news for 2 doses they can immediately start administering second doses.

I thought I read 2-dose data won't be available until summer.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #728 on: January 29, 2021, 11:37:49 AM »
Can't say this was unexpected. Clearly, mRNA vaccines are the future.

Only if the claim that they can quickly adapt to add/make-a-booster-for variants holds up, including whatever testing/regulatory stuff needs to happen. Also, the mRNA trials were on populations where these variants weren't prevalent, my guess is if they trialed (large phase III trial)  the current mRNA vaccinates in the UK/Brazil/SA they'd get lower efficacy. But they have no incentive to do this, and every incentive not to.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #729 on: January 29, 2021, 11:45:01 AM »
Only if the claim that they can quickly adapt to add/make-a-booster-for variants holds up, including whatever testing/regulatory stuff needs to happen. Also, the mRNA trials were on populations where these variants weren't prevalent, my guess is if they trialed (large phase III trial)  the current mRNA vaccinates in the UK/Brazil/SA they'd get lower efficacy. But they have no incentive to do this, and every incentive not to.
It seems to have full efficacy in Israel where they do have the other variants now.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #730 on: January 29, 2021, 11:54:09 AM »
It seems to have full efficacy in Israel where they do have the other variants now.

How prevalent are those other variants in Israel? If they aren't very prevalent then the data from Israel isn't a strong indication of efficacy against variants.

What's interesting is that AZN's vaccine efficacy is >70% and it was tested in the UK, SA, and Brazil, all locations with variants (not sure on timing or how many clinical trial infections were of those variants). Can't wait to see AZN data from US clinical trial.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #731 on: January 29, 2021, 01:33:51 PM »
How prevalent are those other variants in Israel? If they aren't very prevalent then the data from Israel isn't a strong indication of efficacy against variants.

What's interesting is that AZN's vaccine efficacy is >70% and it was tested in the UK, SA, and Brazil, all locations with variants (not sure on timing or how many clinical trial infections were of those variants). Can't wait to see AZN data from US clinical trial.

Israel has about 70% prevalence of the UK variant. Only a handful of SA variant (attempting to contact trace and track them carefully), and none of P.1 Brazil variant.

AZN trials may have been before the variants emerged widely.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #732 on: January 29, 2021, 01:34:42 PM »
AZN trials may have been before the variants emerged widely.

Correct. Would be interesting if they could somehow retroactively ascertain this.
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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #733 on: January 29, 2021, 01:40:29 PM »
Correct. Would be interesting if they could somehow retroactively ascertain this.
I would imagine they saved the samples from covid events, and in the UK some of them were probably sequenced already. With AZN it all comes back to the same problem - it's pro-bono and unprofessional.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #734 on: January 29, 2021, 02:05:15 PM »
With AZN it all comes back to the same problem - it's pro-bono and unprofessional.

If it'll stand up to regulatory scrutiny it has to be professional, it can't be a high school science project. Granted they might not have the budget, expertise, or manpower of Pfizer, but I wouldn't call that unprofessional.
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Offline grodnoking

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #735 on: January 29, 2021, 04:17:59 PM »
I'm not who you think I am.

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #736 on: January 29, 2021, 04:20:34 PM »
Any data on if it reduces severity of cases after the vaccine?
Yes around 85% effective against severe disease IINM.
The 60% figures don’t do it justice
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Offline Moshe123

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #737 on: January 29, 2021, 04:31:23 PM »
Why is there no mention from J&J on the efficacy in regards to preventing infection?

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #738 on: January 29, 2021, 04:33:39 PM »
Why is there no mention from J&J on the efficacy in regards to preventing infection?

What do you think the 66% (global) and 72% (US) numbers are?
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Offline Moshe123

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #739 on: January 29, 2021, 04:46:06 PM »
What do you think the 66% (global) and 72% (US) numbers are?

Moderate to severe illness. What about the tier below that?