Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?

[AsherO]

Because of supply, lack of interest, or kids?

Supply shouldn't be an issue. The rate they're sustaining is just mRNA vaccines, and both J&J and AZN expect EUA soon. Logistics shouldn't be an issue either, the non mRNA vaccines are stable and can be administered at local doctors offices, pharmacies, etc.

Demand from young people is a big concern of mine, vaccination for children, and yes, possibly mutations as well. Add to that a false sense of security that vaccinated people have that'll potentially keep spreading the virus to unvaccinated people. Less transmission is not no transmission.

[PlatinumGuy]

Vaccine hesitancy is a major issue, but can be tackled with carrot and stick. Israel is starting to legislate around that. 

The mRNA vaccines are likely to be approved in kids before November

Mutations are mainly a fear mongering hypothetical, so far none of them come remotely close to evading vaccine immunology, at least not for severe illness.

The biggest concern IMHO is that vaccines aren't 100% effective at preventing transmission. That means IMHO we'll never have real herd immunity and outbreaks will continue to happen endemically

[Ver hut gazugt]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/vaccine-reduces-spread-risk-even-before-2nd-shot-israeli-study-suggests/

[AsherO]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/vaccine-reduces-spread-risk-even-before-2nd-shot-israeli-study-suggests/

What does it mean that they “crunched data from Maccabi”? Since when does the Kupat Cholim measure/have viral load data?

[PlatinumGuy]

What does it mean that they “crunched data from Maccabi”? Since when does the Kupat Cholim measure/have viral load data?

I think it's based on Cycle threshold data on positive tests processed at the MyHeritage lab

[AsherO]

I think it's based on Cycle threshold data on positive tests processed at the MyHeritage lab

Nice. I already saw this on Twitter, they had a nice chart with Ct numbers. Wondering why they don't tell you your Ct when you test positive.

[PlatinumGuy]

Nice. I already saw this on Twitter, they had a nice chart with Ct numbers. Wondering why they don't tell you your Ct when you test positive.

They do in some places, the issue is the CT benchmark varies a lot between labs, and much of it is random based on the quality of the given sample. If you have the same lab and a large amount of data you can filter out those effects on a community basis even if you can't for an individual.

[PlatinumGuy]

Vaccine hesitancy is a major issue, but can be tackled with carrot and stick. Israel is starting to legislate around that. 

Israeli ex Supreme Court justice says if somebody who isn’t vaccinated infects others there’s grounds for a civil damages lawsuit

https://twitter.com/almog_tamar/status/1359783507048939522

אבנו סכינו ומשאו שנפלו מראש גגו...

[yitzgar]

Israeli ex Supreme Court justice says if somebody who isn’t vaccinated infects others there’s grounds for a civil damages lawsuit

https://twitter.com/almog_tamar/status/1359783507048939522

אבנו סכינו ומשאו שנפלו מראש גגו...

probably more like regular aish
More likely hezeik sheaino nikar

[PlatinumGuy]

probably more like regular aish

The Chiddush of אבנו סכינו is that Aish isn't only fire but encompasses similar damages done by a combination of negligence and natural causes.

"אי בהדי דקא אזלי קא מזקי, היינו אש! מאי שנא אש – דכח אחר מעורב בו וממונך ושמירתו עליך, הני נמי כח אחר מעורב בהן וממונך ושמירתו עליך!"

More likely hezeik sheaino nikar

Which is גרמי which we pasken is חייב.

But Hezek Sheaino Nikar is when the damage isn't visible, like making wine unkosher while it remains visibly identical. Covid damages are very visible.

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/amy_siskind/status/1359994953074638850

(I didn’t fact-check)

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/balazslab/status/1361038393015209985

Some data on vaccines vs variants

[Jerseysteve]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/how-to-beat-the-pandemic-by-summer/ar-BB1dEcc7?ocid=uxbndlbing

[Lurker]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/how-to-beat-the-pandemic-by-summer/ar-BB1dEcc7?ocid=uxbndlbing

Big fan of point #2, especially if we focus on the younger adults. The example given about headlights on cars was interesting, and I'd take it one step further. I'd rather have one headlight on every car on the road (or even half the cars on the road), than working headlights on parked cars.

The biggest mistake in this article, IMO, is the first paragraph:

After nearly a year of social isolation and sacrifice in the long war on COVID-19, the end stage of the pandemic is finally in sight. Millions of Americans are being vaccinated each week, and the number of coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the United States has plunged by more than 40 percent in the past month.

Correlating the numbers going down from the second wave with the vaccine rollout may ultimately cause serious harm when the third wave hits.

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/stjbs/status/1361388354978385926

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1364226817662480394

[AsherO]

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1364226817662480394

J&J doesn’t have data from US clinical trials like AZN has? Idk why I conflated the two and thought that’s what was holding up JNJ’s data from getting sent to the FDA

[Ergel]

Did J&J test on kids?
Does Israel have outstanding order with J&J?

[AsherO]

Did J&J test on kids?
Does Israel have outstanding order with J&J?

I think the answer to both questions is no:

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-j-j-idUSKBN27F2MP

[Moshe123]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/moderna-says-covid-19-vaccine-for-south-africa-strain-is-ready-for-human-testing-11614201000?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/QMY1X0LDJs