Peace In The Middle East Master Thread

[tavster]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-set-to-visit-china-next-month-in-trip-seen-likely-to-annoy-biden/

[tavster]

Netanyahu Announces China Invite While Awaiting White House Call
Tuesday, June 27, 2023 06:06 PM
By Ethan Bronner

Israel PM told US lawmakers the Biden administration is aware
Netanyahu has been in office six months without US visit

(Bloomberg) --Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he’s been formally invited to visit China, a move commentators warned could have political ramifications given he’s not yet been to the US six months after taking office.

Netanyahu told a visiting delegation of US congressional representatives about the offer, adding that he informed the Biden administration a month ago, the Israeli government said in a statement on Tuesday. While not specifying whether he had accepted the offer, the release said the projected visit would be the prime minister’s fourth to Beijing over a number of stints in power.

Israel and the US have long had close relations, and Netanyahu stressed the security and intelligence cooperation between the two countries “is at an all-time peak,” and the US remains an “irreplaceable ally,” according to the statement.

Word of the China invitation had spread through the Israeli media before the announcement and became a topic of controversy as commentators said the government is using it to pressure Washington.

Tamir Hayman, director of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, a nonpartisan but liberal-leaning think tank, criticized the implication the offer would be accepted.

“China is an important country for Israel but, as always, the context makes the difference and the context is the American refusal to invite the prime minister for a visit in Washington,” said Hayman, who spent 34 years in the Israeli military, many in its intelligence branch. “Because of this refusal and the escalating crisis with the US, a visit at this time is a serious mistake.”

Chinese Inroads
Netanyahu’s potential visit would come at a time when China is starting to make inroads into the Middle East while the region becomes less of a priority for the US. Beijing this year brokered the restoration of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Hayman argued that appearing to side with China will not expedite an invitation to Washington and will irritate Biden officials.

The US and Israeli administrations clashed in March over Netanyahu’s controversial plan to reduce the power of the courts, with US President Joe Biden warning against the policy and saying there would be no invitation to the White House “in the near term.”

Aides to Netanyahu expressed outrage, saying it’s none of the US’s business how Israel picks its judges or balances its branches of government. But Biden, along with allies in London, Paris and Berlin, emphasized his support for those who worry a judicial overhaul will damage Israeli democracy.

Israeli’s currency and stocks have also been hit, as investors expressed concern that too much power in the hands of the executive will harm the nation’s business-friendly environment. Netanyahu returned to office six months ago as the head of the most right-wing and religious coalition in Israel’s history.

The judicial plan was put on pause in late March, but negotiations with the opposition collapsed and the government this week began the legislative process of making at least one change to the judicial system. That prompted 300 reservist doctors in the military to threaten a refusal to serve if the bill moves forward

[Ver hut gazugt]

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/373408

2023 looks on track to be the deadliest year in Israel since 2015, under Obama, and the bloodshed is an eightfold increase in Israeli deaths since Trump’s last year in office.

The Biden administration restored Obama’s old policies and doubled down on them. And the death toll in Israel looks the way that it did under Obama. Under Biden, Israelis are dying at similar rates to the way that they did under Obama, but not at all as they did under Trump.

The foreign policy establishment claims that the Trump administration’s foreign policy toward Israel was a failure. And yet during Trump’s last year in office, when all the pro-Israel policies had been implemented, the fewest Israelis were killed in at least a generation.

In one of the least reported events in the region, the violence had all but ended with only three Israeli deaths in 2020. By contrast under Biden, 7 Israelis were killed in just January 2023.

Twice as many Israelis died in one month of Biden than in one year of Trump.

What was the secret to peace that had eluded every previous administration? Simple.

The Trump administration stopped funding terrorists.

And the terrorists stopped killing people.

This is not speculation. All anyone has to do is look at the death toll year by year.

The killings in Israel mostly held steady from Obama’s final year in office to Trump’s first year in office, but fell 18% in 2018 as the Trump administration began to pull away from the old failed policies of the Democrats and the Bush Republicans.

That was also the year that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo replaced Rex Tillerson and a Republican congress cut foreign aid to the PLO terrorists and the effects were obvious.

In 2018, Congress passed the Taylor Force Act: named after an Iraq War veteran studying in Israel who was stabbed to death by a terrorist in Jerusalem. The Taylor Force Act cut off a good deal of foreign aid to the Palestinian Authority which limited its ability to fund terrorist attacks.

In 2019, President Trump went even further with a nearly total cutoff of aid to the Palestinian Authority. And the number of terror victims in Israel declined by nearly a quarter.

Not only Israeli deaths were sharply reduced, but casualties among the ‘Palestinian’ Arab terrorists and their human shields fell by more than half from 2018 to 2019.

In 2020, the first year that the cutoff was truly felt, only 3 Israelis (each an entire world...) were killed.

And only 30 casualties were experienced by the terrorists and their populations.

The Trump and congressional Republican cuts to foreign aid to the PLO terrorists and their political entity had sharply reduced the violence and saved lives on both sides.

Fewer Israelis and Arab Muslims living under Palestinian Authority rule were killed in 2020 than at any time since Obama took office. It wasn’t peace, but it was the closest thing to it.

What should have become a model for moving forward was instead ridiculed and discarded.

When Biden took office, he violated the Taylor Force Act and massively ramped up foreign aid and political support for the terrorists occupying parts of the 'West Bank' and Gaza. And the number of deaths shot up from 3 to 17. Since then deaths from terrorist attacks have increased every year under Biden: nearly doubling by some accounts from 2021 to 2022.

As many Israelis were killed in the first two months of 2023 as in all of 2018. By April, as many Israelis had been killed as in all of 2017: the deadliest year under the Trump administration. As of now, more Israelis have been killed in 2023 than in all of 2018 and 2019 combined.

These numbers show what happens when you fund terrorists and when you stop funding them.

Beyond the raw casualty figures, the number of significant terrorist attacks increased 59% from 2021 to 2022. The number of shooting attacks shot up fourfold by over 200% (while stabbing attacks declined) indicating terrorists who were better armed and prepared.

But even as the bodies piled up, the Biden administration has doubled down on death.

In 2022, Biden met with PLO leader Mahmoud Abbas and boasted that, “when I came to office, I reserved the policy — I reversed the policies of my predecessor and resumed aid to the Palestinians — more than a half a billion dollars in 2021.” And promised over $300 billion more.

Money is the engine behind the violence and the Biden administration is providing the cash.

The PLO’s ‘Pay-to-Slay’ or ‘Martyrs Fund’ program rewards terrorists, regardless of their formal affiliation, including ISIS and Hamas members, with salaries and payments for their families.

Terrorists are paid based on the length of their prison sentence. That means successful killers can earn $2,000 to $3,000 a month in a part of the world where the average salary is around $700 a month. It’s five times more profitable to be a terrorist than a teacher.

“We will neither reduce nor prevent [payment] of allowances to the families of martyrs, prisoners and released prisoners, as some seek, and if we had only a single penny left, we would pay it to families of the martyrs and prisoners,” PLO leader Mahmoud Abbas had insisted.

“You sent a report to Congress that officially certified that the Palestinian Authority and the PLO… have not met the legal requirements for ‘terminating payments for acts of terrorism against Israeli and US citizens,’” Senator Ted Cruz challenged a State Department official.

“They are paying for terrorists to murder Americans and to murder Israelis. And nonetheless, this administration is bringing those terrorist leaders to Washington, is bringing them to cocktail parties to wine and dine political leaders.”

“We are working to bring pay-to-slay to an end,” Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf insisted.

The way to end pay-to-slay is to stop sending money to terrorists. Any foreign aid sent into areas controlled by terrorists, whether in Afghanistan or the 'West Bank' or Gaza, finances terrorism. And if you doubt that, just count the money and then count the bodies.

The Trump administration proved that cutting off money to the terrorists ends the violence and the Biden administration demonstrated that restoring the money also brings back the violence.

Peace in the Middle East is not a dream. Just stop funding terrorists and it might even be a reality.

Daniel Greenfield is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center.

[mevinyavin]

Another nauseating op-ed from the NY Times. This is what they are feeding everyone. No mention is made of the possibility that maybe, just maybe, there might be another side to the story. There's lots of right-wingers out there who say (and do!) things that are not nice, but they are NOT the majority. This article makes it sound like there is no other viewpoint than them...




Contrast this with a rather neutral-sounding article regarding an investigation for incitement from two prominent leftists, in FT today.

[mevinyavin]

Lots of negative coverage on Jenin is to be expected, but some are worse than others.
Made the front page of the Washington Post today. Makes it sound like Ukraine. At least they used some words to describe Israel's point of view...

[tavster]

https://m.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/article-753235

[mevinyavin]

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/375199
Differences between Abbas's actual speech and the way it was translated into English

[tavster]

Netanyahu Says Bet on Israel Deepening Ties With Saudi Arabia
3 minute video interview with Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-07/netanyahu-says-bet-on-israel-deepening-ties-with-saudi-arabia#xj4y7vzkg

[tavster]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-saudi-arabia-agree-to-broad-terms-for-israel-normalization-ac6d549c?mod=world_major_2_pos1

[tavster]

[ExGingi]

https://twitter.com/hahussain/status/1690406296095236096

[tavster]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-11/us-push-for-a-saudi-israel-deal-can-stop-china-in-the-middle-east

[tavster]

A Saudi-Israeli Peace Deal? Who Wants What

(Bloomberg) --A deal is being negotiated that, if completed, would result in Saudi Arabia, for the first time, establishing warm relations with Israel. The main thing the Saudis would get in exchange — security guarantees — wouldn’t come from Israel but from its closest ally — the US. Israel, a high-tech power, would play a major role in ambitious Saudi plans to move its economy beyond oil. It would also be expected to make concessions to the Palestinian self-ruling authority in the West Bank. The US would regain some of its influence over Saudi Arabia, stemming efforts by China to expand its sway in the Middle East. The deal offers significant rewards to all four governments, not least of them additional ways of dealing with Iranian military activity in the region. But the prospect of the pact stirs populist forces among all of their constituencies, posing risks to those in power.

1. Who’s talking?
Although they have had secret contacts in the past, the Israelis and Saudis aren’t speaking to one another directly but rather through the Americans. According to sources familiar with the talks, they involve, on the US side, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and his deputies Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein. For the Saudis, it’s Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, who is the brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as National Security Adviser Musaed Al-Aiban. For the Israelis, it’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a former ambassador to the US and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s most trusted aide. The Palestinians haven’t been invited in so far but have been in touch with the Saudis. Officials of the three negotiating governments say that the complexities are such that a deal will be very difficult to pull off – yet very much worth trying.

2. What does Saudi Arabia want from the deal?
First and foremost, the Saudis want protection from Iran. Crown Prince Mohammed, the kingdom’s de facto leader, is said to have been traumatized by devastating attacks on Saudi oil production facilities in 2019 that his government says Iran was behind. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been at odds for decades. Though China in early 2023 helped broker a restoration of diplomatic relations between the two after a seven-year break, they remain rivals for power in the Mideast. Saudi authorities worry about Iran’s large missile arsenal; its proxy militias in nearby Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon; and its nuclear program, which outsiders have long suspected Iran is using to develop nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia wants an agreement with the US that would be as close as possible to a mutual defense pact — in which any attack on the kingdom would be seen by Washington as an attack on the US. One possible model is the US-Japan treaty in which Japan grants the US the right to base military forces in the country in exchange for the promise that America will defend it if it’s ever attacked.
Israel also has defense capabilities that could prove useful for defending Saudi oil fields.
As spelled out in his Vision 2030 plan for the kingdom, MBS, as the crown prince is known, has made economic and social advancement his goal. To move the economy of the country past its dependence on crude oil, of which it is the world’s largest exporter, he wants to focus on innovation. For this, US officials say, he believes it’s vital to integrate economically with Israel, which has become a powerhouse in the technology industry.
Anticipating the day its oil runs out, Saudi Arabia is making plans to rely more on nuclear energy to power its own economy and is seeking US help with that.
Publicly, Saudi Arabia has said that a precondition to recognizing Israel as an ally is an independent Palestinian state. The deal being discussed would not come close to achieving that. But it would need to contain sweeteners of some kind for the Palestinians so that Saudi authorities could say to their own people — and the entire Muslim world — that they are still fighting for the Palestinian cause.

3. What does Israel want from the deal?
Netanyahu has repeatedly said that after gaining ties with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco in 2020 in the US-brokered Abraham Accords, the big prize for Israel is a deep relationship with Saudi Arabia. It is the richest and most powerful Arab state. Equally important is the kingdom’s status as the birthplace of Islam and the site of the religion’s holiest places. For Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel would counter the view among many Middle Easterners that the presence of a Jewish state in the mostly-Muslim region is illegitimate. It would also likely open doors in other large Muslim nations such as Malaysia and Indonesia.
Netanyahu has his own reasons for making at least some concessions to the Palestinian Authority, the body charged with limited self-rule under early peace agreements with Israel. It governs in the West Bank, having lost power in the Gaza Strip to the militant Islamist group Hamas. (Israel forces and settlers left Gaza in 2005, though Israel maintains control of Gaza’s airspace and maritime territory.) Netanyahu announced in July that his government will do more to support the Palestinian Authority out of concern that Hamas, which is backed by Iran, is meddling in the West Bank. For now, that mostly means helping with industrial development and allowing more of the tax revenue Israel collects on behalf of the authority to flow into its coffers.
Netanyahu is also facing deep internal divisions over his far-right governing coalition’s policies and indictments against him for fraud and bribery. A deal with Saudi Arabia would shift the focus to a source of national pride and unity.

4. What’s in it for the US?
For the US, the deal represents an opportunity to push back against China’s rising profile in the Mideast. It would help Israel, a key ally, integrate with its neighbors and strengthen an anti-Iran alliance, with the US in a central role. If the Saudis get the kind of security guarantees they want from the US, relations between the two countries, which have been strained, would vastly improve. That could give the US more influence over the level of Saudi oil production, which largely determines the price of oil and thus gasoline. For US President Joe Biden, a completed deal would be a major foreign policy accomplishment for his 2024 reelection campaign. Officials involved in the talks say that an agreement would have to come together by next spring. After that, the November election will dominate the attention of both Biden and Congress, whose Republican members will be reluctant to support any deal brokered by the president, out of concern it would benefit him politically.

5. What’s in it for the Palestinian Authority?
For Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, the deal would fall well short of advancing the dream of an independent Palestinian state. But it would offer a chance to slow or stall Israeli measures that make that dream improbable. Specifically, Palestinian negotiators will want Netanyahu’s government to limit building of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and to put off plans to annex the existing settlements to Israel. A deal could also weaken Iran’s creeping influence in the West Bank, and, most likely, would result in substantial financial assistance from Saudi Arabia.

6. What are the populist forces against the deal?
All four governments face the potential for backlash domestically.

Although a poll earlier this year found that 40% of Saudis were unopposed to economic ties with Israel, the Saudi public has little appetite for fully embracing the Jewish state, especially one led by a far-right government that opposes Palestinian statehood.
In the US, the left wing of Biden’s Democratic Party is critical of Israel because of its continued occupation of the West Bank and the policies of the government Netanyahu now leads. It’s more reproachful of Saudi Arabia for its violations of human rights, including the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents. The Saudi requests from the US are substantial – for advance fighter jets and air defense systems on top of the defense pact, and for help with a civilian nuclear program that could one day be used to create nuclear weapons. Liberal Democrats will be wary of handing such tools to MBS, a leader with absolute power who US intelligence concluded likely approved the operation to capture or kill Khashoggi. MBS has denied any involvement while accepting symbolic responsibility as the kingdom’s de facto ruler.
Among Palestinians, Abbas — who was elected president in 2005 and has held onto the post though his term expired in 2009 — is already unpopular. In a poll conducted in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in June, 80% of respondents said he should resign. A majority — 52% — favored “armed action” as the best way to end the occupation, suggesting that many Palestinians would consider future diplomatic agreements with Israel a betrayal of their national cause.
In Israel, religious rightists who are part of Netanyahu’s government consider annexing the West Bank a more important mission than gaining acceptance by Saudi Arabia. Their opposition, however, could prove a blessing to the parties negotiating it.

7. How could opposition to the deal prove a blessing to the negotiating parties?
If talks advance and Netanyahu appears willing to make concessions to the Palestinians that are unacceptable to the far-right partners in his ruling coalition, they may threaten to quit. That would give him another shot at forming a more centrist government with more moderate parties. That was his preference when he was invited to form a government after November elections. Those parties refused to sit with him then, because he’s on trial and viewed by many as untrustworthy. The parties would have to reevaluate their position if presented with the historic opportunity of a Saudi peace deal. A more moderate ruling coalition would likely pursue policies in the West Bank more agreeable to the Palestinian Authority, as well as to the Saudis and the Americans. Such a coalition would also likely drop the current government’s initiative to curb the powers of Israel’s judiciary, which has provoked fears in Israel and in the US that the country’s democracy is threatened.

[ExGingi]

It's 30 years since the government session that ended up approving the dreaded Oslo accords, a lot is coming to light now regarding fears that were brought up and all came true.

Here's one twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/MoranT555/status/1696596111153156339?s=20

And a tweet by Amit Segal who was the first journalist to request the information once it was declassified (upon passage of 30 years):

https://twitter.com/amit_segal/status/1696536337455989237?s=20

[ExGingi]

Attempted stabbing attack in Jerusalem.

I like the way it was handled. Seems much better than firearms.

https://twitter.com/yedidya_epstien/status/1698815253478359520

[yelped]

Attempted stabbing attack in Jerusalem.

I like the way it was handled. Seems much better than firearms.

https://twitter.com/yedidya_epstien/status/1698815253478359520

Would much rather a coal to the head. Never heard of a terrorist who became a peace loving person afterwards. They all seek to kill all their lives. That being said, that second kick is something. Would not want to be on the receiving end of that one.

[tavster]

Kushner’s Saudi-Backed Affinity to Acquire Stake in Israeli Firm

Affinity Partners to buy $150 million stake in Shlomo car unit

The agreement marks Affinity’s first investment in Israel

(Bloomberg) -- Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners is acquiring a $150 million minority stake in an Israeli car company, marking the first investment in Israel for the Miami-based private equity firm that is backed by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.

Affinity will buy a 15% stake in the closely held S Shlomo Holdings Ltd’s car and credit division, it said in a filing on Wednesday.

The investment comes as the Biden administration seeks to broker a deal that would see Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic ties with Israel. The two countries have no official relations and direct investment by the kingdom in Israeli-linked companies is rare, though some of their businesses have covertly worked together through intermediaries for years.

Affinity did not seek approval for the deal from any of its limited partners, including the Saudi Public Investment Fund controlled by the country’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to discuss the terms.
Affinity declined to comment, while a spokesperson for PIF did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

[tavster]

Would much rather a coal to the head. Never heard of a terrorist who became a peace loving person afterwards. They all seek to kill all their lives.

100% - I'd much rather use a bullet than having to sponsor that person's life in prison

[yelped]

100% - I'd much rather use a bullet than having to sponsor that person's life in prison

If she would stay in prison would be one thing, but unfortunately they are released to go back to their evil activities after a few years.

[ExGingi]

Would much rather a coal to the head.

I wonder how someone who doesn't speak Yiddish would understand this.