Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear

[yungermanchik]

Just a DP. (I know you won't approve of the actual story, just take the DP from it.)

Three kids from my community knocked on my door together collecting for their respective yeshivos. I went and got 3 fives from my drawer to give them. Two of them took the proffered bill eagerly but the third one said he's not collecting, he's just going along with them. I then asked him, "why not take the $5 for your yeshiva." and he responded "I'm not collecting for that place, it's a jail." His was the one that had the strict Covid rules, obviously.

[yuneeq]

Somehow the 200k+ covid deaths are confirmed but the 35k flu deaths are a made up number. We need some intellectual honesty (on both sides)

COVID deaths are confirmed exactly same way the 3-15k confirmed flu deaths are confirmed. Yet excess mortality is at 265k so 200k+ is not at all a stretch. Remind me again of your point about intellectual honesty?

[yuneeq]

The flu comparisons are beyond dumb. Last I checked -

200k>>>>35k

Theres never been a flu shutdown
We didn't wear masks or observe distancing as a result.

I would imagine if we did those things, flu deaths would also go down tremendously.

In fact the flu numbers are down tremendously due to COVID measures.

[shaulyaakov]

False. I know multiple young children who have been in the hospital for COVID, including 2 on my block. IINM there was a child in the ICU in Lakewood last week for COVID.

Don't bring evidence into this. When presented new information, many people here just move the goal posts.

[AJK]

Don't bring evidence into this. When presented new information, many people here just move the goal posts.

I don't know to whom you are referring, but OPs personal anecdote regarding children in the ICU is neither evidence nor contrary to the statistics I quoted.

Goal posts exactly where they've always been.

[ari3]

Why do you feel that this is not honest

200k is an actual count. 35k is a random estimate.

I was assuming the covid deaths and the flu deaths are counted the same way. If I am wrong than I stand corrected and apologize for accusing anyone of intellectual dishonesty.

[ari3]

False. I know multiple young children who have been in the hospital for COVID, including 2 on my block. IINM there was a child in the ICU in Lakewood last week for COVID.

I wrote AROUND zero. You know 2 children on your block in the last month?

[PlatinumGuy]

I was assuming the covid deaths and the flu deaths are counted the same way. If I am wrong than I stand corrected and apologize for accusing anyone of intellectual dishonesty.

Apology accepted. Covid deaths are counted. Granted, there are faults in the count. Flu deaths are a wild estimate.

I haven't ever heard of somebody dying from the flu. There is a big difference between people on their deathbed being knocked out by the flu, and otherwise functioning people with an underlying illness or old age dying from Covid.

[ari3]

Don't bring evidence into this. When presented new information, many people here just move the goal posts.

You were the one who quoted baseless facts (a 4% pediatric hospitalization rate) to promote your agenda and I am questioning that. If you have evidence of that fine otherwise....

[S209]

I wrote AROUND zero. You know 2 children on your block in the last month?

They were sick in March/April.

I believe there was a child in the ICU last week. There were also several children from Lakewood hospitalized with the Kawasaki-like illness.

I was assuming the covid deaths and the flu deaths are counted the same way. If I am wrong than I stand corrected and apologize for accusing anyone of intellectual dishonesty.

Thank you for your honesty.

[S209]

I wrote AROUND zero.

How many hospitalized children is OK? The number of hospitalized is certainly far from 0.

[ari3]

How many hospitalized children is OK?

The answer to that is above my pay grade although I doubt we are near that point currently. Additionally the emotional and psychological impact of the measures required to keep it at 0 must be factored into the equation. My point was that fear mongering with inflated numbers is wrong.

The number of hospitalized is certainly far from 0.

So what is it? How many kids do you think had it in Lakewood over the last month? How many landed in the hospital?

[aygart]

The answer to that is above my pay grade

But to say that it is near zero isn't?

[avromie7]

But to say that it is near zero isn't?

Those are unrelated, anyone can comment on what was, he gave his understanding of what was. To say what should be you need a big set of shoulders.

[AJK]

1. Is a strawman argument which consumes much of the article. You'd be hard pressed to find reasonable people that believe otherwise. Certainly not the prevailing majority.

2. a) Lockdowns now are not the same as they were in the beginning, and a child wearing a mask is not locking down a school. Sure if a school does not have good measures they will probably have an outbreak and may get shutdown, but school can resume when things are under control again. If you don't believe in children being able to spread COVID then you have nothing to worry about, school will never have an outbreak. Unfortunately research and experience shows otherwise.
b) 35,000 deaths a year for cars is nothing compared to 200k+ in 7 months with most of that time spent trying to get it under control. Imagine people only used cars to go to grocery stores and still managed to kill 350k people annually, 10x your number. What would the death rate in cars be if people drove everywhere - likely over a million. Is that a number which will make you consider the risk of driving? Or do we accept any risk no matter how high because that's life. 35k deaths for the flu is a made up number. The confirmed death rate is 3-15k annually, which is why you rarely heard of people dying from the flu but you know more that died from COVID in a single week.

1. Glad we agree.

2. Nothing in that entire response addressed the main question: How do we get back to normal given where we are, the moving goal posts, and where we need to be?

[shaulyaakov]

1. Glad we agree.

2. Nothing in that entire response addressed the main question: How do we get back to normal given where we are, the moving goal posts, and where we need to be?

What makes you think that if we go back to normal when the US has 40k identified cases a day and 800-1000 deaths a day that we won't end up right back where we're were in April?

[avromie7]

Let's assume your median number of 4% of pediatric covid cases end up hospitalized (frankly, I've never seen this number, so forgive me if this number isn't right - I'm just using your given facts).

NYC alone has over 1 million school children. If we assume with zero precautions 25% get it, that's 10k hospitalizations per year, jsut in NYC. Add in surrounding areas, and you see how this could be a problem.

I just looked back at the source data, the 2 locations where children represent the lowest percentage of total cases by far (NYC & NJ), also have the highest hospitalization rates. The reason the hospitalization rate is so high is because very few children got tested.

[yuneeq]

1. Glad we agree.

2. Nothing in that entire response addressed the main question: How do we get back to normal given where we are, the moving goal posts, and where we need to be?

It's a loaded question. Who is the "we"? There are government orgs, mayors, governors, school districts, andschool administrators that are behind the decisions, and these decisions greatly vary by location and situation. And then you have us parents, and "we" don't really have any deciding say at all.

If you want my opinion on what schools should be doing I can offer that but it will be just as meaningless as his.

Re: goalposts, they shouldn't be moved, but we must accept that guidelines can and should be changed based on new information.

[koshergourmetmart]

https://medium.com/@keith_54251/of-covid-fear-and-our-children-da3e9d895b0  A response