Is Covid Spiking in Boro Park?

[yaakov35]

I think I'm misunderstanding you. Are you saying that the Jews of NY and NJ no longer care if anyone gets the virus?

In the communities that are having these stories for the most part yes. Obviously in a perfect world we'd hope for no cases. But if the news is up in arms about 16 cases then they're doing quite alright for themselves.

[Lurker]

We'll do anything to prevent the spread, unless it would prevent someone from Florida being able to eat their quarter chicken at a Simcha.

I just find the irony... well, ironic. Just these past 3 weeks, I've been invited to 4 weddings, a few lchaims, and a bunch of brissim in FL. All of the invitations were Zoom invites, because each simcha had close family and a few friends only, and always less than 40 or 50 people. If we in FL don't invite people from FL to our Simchas, why would anyone in NY/NJ invite them???

[Lurker]

In the communities that are having these stories for the most part yes. Obviously in a perfect world we'd hope for no cases. But if the news is up in arms about 16 cases then they're doing quite alright for themselves.

And in your opinion, at what amount of cases would they not be doing quite alright for themselves?

[yaakov35]

And in your opinion, at what amount of cases would they not be doing quite alright for themselves?

There's no magic number. But after 4 months of having been back to life being 100%normal, I think we can say they are just fine.

[Lurker]

There's no magic number. But after 4 months of having been back to life being 100%normal, I think we can say they are just fine.

That wasn't anything close to an answer to what I asked. There doesn't need to be an exact number. Which of the following numbers would you say should make people uncomfortable? 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 5000, 10000?

[yaakov35]

That wasn't anything close to an answer to what I asked. There doesn't need to be an exact number. Which of the following numbers would you say should make people uncomfortable? 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 5000, 10000?

I think if there was 20+ new cases on a weekly basis after a bit people would start caring a drop. Less than that definitely not.

[Lurker]

I think if there was 20+ new cases on a weekly basis after a bit people would start caring a drop. Less than that definitely not.

So 16 isn't something to sneeze at, it's something to keep an eye on. Nothing to freak out about, but take notice, right?

[aygart]

I think if there was 20+ new cases on a weekly basis after a bit people would start caring a drop. Less than that definitely not.

If there were 16 cases from one wedding then how far off can that be? There are already numerous wedding that have been behind the vast majority of new cases. In the end these weddings will be what causes another lockdown.

[yitzgar]

In the end these weddings will be what causes another lockdown.

This. In addition, if there is chas veshalom another outbreak with people hospitalized, these weddings can again become an impetus for lack of care in hospitals which led to many deaths last time Rachmana litzlan

[shaulyaakov]

If there were 16 cases from one wedding then how far off can that be? There are already numerous wedding that have been behind the vast majority of new cases. In the end these weddings will be what causes another lockdown.

We need Rabanim to collectively put a stop to this. New rule - you don't get a mesadar Kiddushin if your wedding has more than 50 or out of town guests who didn't quarantine.

[yitzgar]

We need Rabanim to collectively put a stop to this. New rule - you don't get a mesadar Kiddushin if your wedding has more than 50 or out of town guests who didn't quarantine.

יותר ממה שהתינוק רוצה לינק, האם רוצה להניק....

[ckmk47]

Although a large gathering that includes a covid infected person has the potential to spread the disease to more people than a small wedding, I think the size of the wedding is not what we should concentrate on.
In the NY/NJ area, many have had it, perhaps most.  If we confine our guest list to locals, we're unlikely to have anyone with covid at the wedding. So noone is spreading it.
A good friend is making a wedding very soon.  I talked to her about relatives coming in from out of town.  She's thinking about politely disinviting them.

[Lurker]

She's thinking about politely disinviting them.

This needs to start happening wholesale. We need to wake up to the fact that things like this can have much larger implications for our local communities.

[shaulyaakov]

This needs to start happening wholesale. We need to wake up to the fact that things like this can have much larger implications for our local communities.

Considering this for the most part is the law, it's not so crazy to expect.

[Lurker]

Considering this for the most part is the law, it's not so crazy to expect.

Right or wrong, I don't think the legal argument is going to be what gets people to change the way things are being done.

[avromie7]

That wasn't anything close to an answer to what I asked. There doesn't need to be an exact number. Which of the following numbers would you say should make people uncomfortable? 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 5000, 10000?

IMO it's not a number of cases that would be cause for concern, I would be concerned if there is significant community spread. The fact that every small cluster is traced back to a source (generally a simcha) and is contained fairly quickly means we're doing just fine.

[aygart]

IMO it's not a number of cases that would be cause for concern, I would be concerned if there is significant community spread. The fact that every small cluster is traced back to a source (generally a simcha) and is contained fairly quickly means we're doing just fine.

+.75 There is still the potential that there are more out there than we know about and each cluster raises the potential for that exponentially.

Either way, having the Out of towners at the weddings and them passing it to locals, even if it is only those at the wedding, is not at all okay.

[shaulyaakov]

+.75 There is still the potential that there are more out there than we know about and each cluster raises the potential for that exponentially.

Either way, having the Out of towners at the weddings and them passing it to locals, even if it is only those at the wedding, is not at all okay.

The question about spread is obviously how quickly and reliably people are getting tested, quarantining, and contact tracing.

If someone is going to an indoor minyan without masks and distancing days after a wedding, this could get bad very fast.

[yaakov35]

The question about spread is obviously how quickly and reliably people are getting tested, quarantining, and contact tracing.

If someone is going to an indoor minyan without masks and distancing days after a wedding, this could get bad very fast.

Not really, enough people had it that none of these things spread.

[shaulyaakov]

Not really, enough people had it that none of these things spread.

That's debatable. Let's say 40% had it. What that means is introducing community spread is harder, but once it's there, it's not as big of a factor if 1 spreader goes to shul where half didn't get it.