Chochom Einov B'Roishoi

[cmey]

+1.
Saying that shortages or lockdowns can never happen again is sheer arrogance.
1. There are still hard to find items.
2. Just look at Israel.

OP was referring to a March and April type of situation. Can anything happen? Of course. I know at least three guys who have obtained or are in the process of obtaining weapons and survival gear (one has a high tech drone for surveillance) because they are convinced there is a significant chance of anarchy post Election Day. Is it impossible? No. But I’m not going to plan for it.

The dynamic has shifted dramatically since March and April. Just a couple of examples. Almost everyone was avoiding in person shopping back then, which overwhelmed the supermarkets delivery system. Right now you would have many many people who have antibodies and are comfortable going shopping even during a wave. Many shortages were simply caused by stockpiling. Charmin manufactured more toilet paper than ever but couldn’t keep up with the hoarding. Those supplies are still in peoples basements right now so it’s unlikely to be replicated. People are no longer irrationally afraid of going to outdoor venues like walking paths trails and parks. Outdoor minyanim are considered safe.

These are just a few of the things that have changed since then. Then there is the mentality. People were willing to go all out for what they were short was a 14 day lockdown. There would hardly be that level of compliance now. Can there be specific shortages and closures? Sure. But March and April? Not happening.

[SayWhat]

Not a chance that things will lockdown like March and April. There is no appetite among the general population. Ditto for major shortages. (There’s actually a flood of meat and other staples on the non kosher market and prices have plummeted.) We do need to plan for the possibility of remote schooling and shul restrictions coming our way. A call in phone system for 2 hours a day does not cut it.

Your obstinance is exactly the reason why it will happen again.

[ExGingi]

Maybe it's time to put the HURRY back in the clorox deals.

*ducks*

I've missed EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. OF. THEM. and I'm on the Telegram channel, I just don't have it on my desktop and do work sometimes. By the time I see them they're not only dead, but six feet under!!! 

[Yo ssi]

I've missed EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. OF. THEM. and I'm on the Telegram channel, I just don't have it on my desktop and do work sometimes. By the time I see them they're not only dead, but six feet under!!! 

Just hire @YitzyS to be on top of it. He is currently overstocked with basketballs

[Yoel F]

Question, mainly focused on New York

I know that there is a significant increase in the heimisha yiddisha communities (Williamsburg, Boro Park, Flatbush, Rockland County, Orange County, etc.) where many people are currently infected.

However, looking at the big picture, looking at New York State as a whole. Do we see any serious increase? I don’t see it. New York has had an infection rate of about 1% for quite a while. In the months of June, July, August it was mainly in other communities and now unfortunately it has hit home for the Yiddish community.

I can’t imagine the state moving into a shut down situation unless the entire state goes in the wrong direction, which i don’t see happening now.

Am i missing something?

[Dan]

Question, mainly focused on New York

I know that there is a significant increase in the heimisha yiddisha communities (Williamsburg, Boro Park, Flatbush, Rockland County, Orange County, etc.) where many people are currently infected.

However, looking at the big picture, looking at New York State as a whole. Do we see any serious increase? I don’t see it. New York has had an infection rate of about 1% for quite a while. In the months of June, July, August it was mainly in other communities and now unfortunately it has hit home for the Yiddish community.

I can’t imagine the state moving into a shut down situation unless the entire state goes in the wrong direction, which i don’t see happening now.

Am i missing something?

Jews were the canary in the coalmine in March. Why not again now?

[etech0]

I've missed EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. OF. THEM. and I'm on the Telegram channel, I just don't have it on my desktop and do work sometimes. By the time I see them they're not only dead, but six feet under!!! 

Chrome Notifications

[SayWhat]

Question, mainly focused on New York

I know that there is a significant increase in the heimisha yiddisha communities (Williamsburg, Boro Park, Flatbush, Rockland County, Orange County, etc.) where many people are currently infected.

However, looking at the big picture, looking at New York State as a whole. Do we see any serious increase? I don’t see it. New York has had an infection rate of about 1% for quite a while. In the months of June, July, August it was mainly in other communities and now unfortunately it has hit home for the Yiddish community.

I can’t imagine the state moving into a shut down situation unless the entire state goes in the wrong direction, which i don’t see happening now.

Am i missing something?

NYC can shutdown specific neighborhoods that they deem hotspots.

 https://nypost.com/2020/09/24/nyc-threatens-to-shut-non-essential-businesses-if-covid-cases-rise/

[Yo ssi]

Chrome Notifications

Your kidding?! For the famed Clorox nothing short of Telegram will do!

[S209]

Question, mainly focused on New York

I know that there is a significant increase in the heimisha yiddisha communities (Williamsburg, Boro Park, Flatbush, Rockland County, Orange County, etc.) where many people are currently infected.

However, looking at the big picture, looking at New York State as a whole. Do we see any serious increase? I don’t see it. New York has had an infection rate of about 1% for quite a while. In the months of June, July, August it was mainly in other communities and now unfortunately it has hit home for the Yiddish community.

I can’t imagine the state moving into a shut down situation unless the entire state goes in the wrong direction, which i don’t see happening now.

Am i missing something?

A) The frum communities, hit earlier and harder than surrounding areas last time, are an early indicator (potential spreader?) and a sign of how bad it can/will get elsewhere

B) The State in NJ and the State and City in NY and especially NYC would be willing to lock down specific areas, have threatened as much, and according to recent reports, are actively planning to do so

[Joeymc]

Chrome Notifications

+1MM

[Yoel F]

NYC can shutdown specific neighborhoods that they deem hotspots.

 https://nypost.com/2020/09/24/nyc-threatens-to-shut-non-essential-businesses-if-covid-cases-rise/

They definitely can threaten to do it (typical from de Blasio). In the past Cuomo has effectively blocked all local municipalities from treating one area different than others. So, that remains to be seen how he will handle it this time.

[ExGingi]

Chrome Notifications

I think those would be too disruptive. After all, there's not that many DDMS deals I care about. Clorox wipes were just always my quick way of cleaning up certain areas in my office, without getting full-blown cleaning help.

[Yoel F]

Jews were the canary in the coalmine in March. Why not again now?

In March the positive rate in NY was 40%. Currently its at about 1% since June and has not increased in the last few weeks, even when infection in our hometowns grew a lot.

It seems to me, that we are overreacting based on what’s going on in our own communities, what we don’t realize is, that the State as a whole remains at a very stable level.

[S209]

In March the positive rate in NY was 40%. Currently its at about 1% since June and has not increased in the last few weeks, even when infection in our hometowns grew a lot.

It seems to me, that we are overreacting based on what’s going on in our own communities, what we don’t realize is, that the State as a whole remains at a very stable level.

Can you explain the discrepancy between our communities and the rest of the State? Also, would you have said that recently to the people on these forums who correctly predicted a couple of weeks ago based off of the discernible uptick that there would soon be an explosion?

[Lurker]

OP was referring to a March and April type of situation.

First of all, I didn't say anything about it being a copy of March and April. I said closures and lockdowns are coming. Whether it's to schools and shuls, or to local businesses and restaurants, or to government offices and public areas, they are going to happen. They will be disruptive to our daily lives. Unfortunately, we got to experience those disruptions (and then some) back in the spring, and we should learn from then in order to prepare for the fall and winter.

Second, just because certain things are different doesn't mean it will be easier. We're ok with outdoor minyanim now, and in the spring and summer that worked. Even now, it's still very doable. How feasible is it during weeks when the temps are in the 30's and 40's? Having kids home during the spring was tough. Winter may be tougher. Winter always brings a slew of complications, and even partial closures will exacerbate them.

Being prepared doesn't mean building a bunker and readying for the apocalypse. It means making sure you're not running low on essentials. It means you're thinking of ways to manage your kids being in school remotely. It means making sure your business has was it needs and isn't too under/over-stocked or under/over-staffed, or whatever a potential lockdown means to your business. It means making sure older people who rely on you are set up with extra supplies or an emergency plan or resources to make sure they are taken care of and safe. It means a ton of things I'm not writing or haven't even thought of.

[Lurker]

It seems to me, that we are overreacting based on what’s going on in our own communities, what we don’t realize is, that the State as a whole remains at a very stable level.

Florida was stable until it wasn't. Europe was stable and is now seeing higher numbers than at the peak of the first wave. There are signs that tell you when something is coming. If you wait until it's here, it's too late.

[Dan]

In March the positive rate in NY was 40%. Currently its at about 1% since June and has not increased in the last few weeks, even when infection in our hometowns grew a lot.

It seems to me, that we are overreacting based on what’s going on in our own communities, what we don’t realize is, that the State as a whole remains at a very stable level.

C'mon, don't bring me March numbers from when it was nearly impossible to get tested.

There's a 2nd wave in many countries right now. Downright foolish to assume it won't happen here as well. Just as foolish as thinking the COVID plague in the NYC frum community was over.

[ExGingi]

C'mon, don't bring me March numbers from when it was nearly impossible to get tested.

There's a 2nd wave in many countries right now. Downright foolish to assume it won't happen here as well. Just as foolish as thinking the COVID plague in the NYC frum community was over.

Is there a 2nd wave in Northern Italy?

[PlatinumGuy]

The NY 1% positivity rate is only PCR tests. Most frum people are probably getting rapid antigen tests. The governments incompetence screams to the high heavens