Trump did much better last night than in the first debate. If he debated the way Pence did, he could have landed a knockout Blow to Biden. Alas, Trump is Trump, and he did surprisingly well for who he is.
It’s really difficult to say who is in the lead right now. If we go only by polls, it’s clearly Biden.
However, there is zero enthusiasm behind Biden. There aren’t really any “Biden voters”, only “Democrat voters” and “anti-Trump“ voters. They don’t like Biden, they just hate Trump. Trump on the other hand has tremendous enthusiasm among his base.
The question is, how much is left of Trump’s 2016 coalition, and is there enough Trump- hate to drive out high turnout on the Democratic side?