Author Topic: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear  (Read 11318 times)

Offline AJK

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2020, 05:34:18 PM »
I’ll gladly be in the minority on this one, as I thought the article makes some very good points.

A few comments:

1. Current science demonstrates that most children who become infected with the COVID-19 virus have no symptoms, or they have milder symptoms such as low-grade fever, fatigue, and cough.  More specifically, children were between 0.5% and 3.7% of total reported hospitalizations, and hospitalization only resulted in between 0.2%-7.9% of all child COVID-19 cases. Further, analyzing data from 42 states, children were between 0% 0.26% of all COVID-19 deaths (17 states reported zero child deaths), and in states reporting, between 0% and 0.16% of all child COVID-19 cases resulted in death.  Given these figures, you'd be hard-pressed to argue COVID is dangerous to children.

2. The present implementation and enforcement of COVID guidelines have put us in a place from which it'll be hard to dig out.  First the lockdowns were to flatten the curve -- something that, aside from individual liberty concerns, seems to have been an appropriate response, particularly if judged by the results: we flattened the curve and we saved our hospital system from being overwhelmed. (I'll leave for the future sociologists and epidemiologists the question of correlation vs. causation.)  Now, however, we're seven or so months into the pandemic, and the lockdowns appear now aimed to eradicating the virus. Never before has this been tried, let alone been successful, and to ignore the countervailing concerns (e.g. substance abuse, child abuse, etc.) is to either play ostrich or to have some ulterior motive.  And I found the age-old comparison to speeding laws to be directly on point.  We as a society accept certain levels of risk because the costs in eliminating that risk far outweigh benefits -- and yes, for those keeping score at home, that means we make societal choices that value things more highly than life, in this case 35,000 people a year.  So the question he asks, that remains, and that will remain, is this: Given the controlling view on the pandemic, e.g. lockdowns, quarantines, isolations, mask wearing, social distancing, etc., how do we return to normal? What has to happen for the controlling view to revert to the way it was not in Oct 2020, but Oct 2019? Short of a bunch of hypocrisy, convenience, complete change of opinion, or a miracle, I don't see it.

3. He is correct that it seems schools, at least in NJ, are going above and beyond DOH requirements. For example, (i) quarantining entire classes as a result of a single positive infection and (ii) banning Yom Tov guests in an outdoor sukkah, is substantially stricter than NJ DOH guidelines. That said, he does not address what I (charitably) believe to be the reason underlying that approach.  Preliminarily, NJ DOH guidelines contain no middle ground between “Schools open” and “Schools closed.” As a result, the approach taken by the schools is, I believe, to craft their own middle ground so as to avoid the latter consequence. Reasonable minds, of course, can argue where to draw the line in this quest for a middle ground (perhaps a non-mandatory 14-day quarantine is too long, perhaps a quarantine AND mask wearing is too burdensome, perhaps we get rid of plexiglass, perhaps we allow guests on YT), but there does appear to be a method to the madness. Further, the apparent dichotomy he notes between the approach we have taken with respect to our children and school vs. the approach that we have taken with respect to adults can be explained, too, by the schools underlying motive: avoiding school closure.

4. The mesirah and loshon hara is rampant, inappropriate, and egregious. The end.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2020, 05:59:30 PM »
Well said.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline EliJelly

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2020, 06:02:23 PM »
I’ll gladly be in the minority   silent majority on this one, as I thought the article makes some very good points.
FTFY :)

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #23 on: October 01, 2020, 06:09:12 PM »
I’ll gladly be in the minority on this one, as I thought the article makes some very good points.

A few comments:

1. Current science demonstrates that most children who become infected with the COVID-19 virus have no symptoms, or they have milder symptoms such as low-grade fever, fatigue, and cough.  More specifically, children were between 0.5% and 3.7% of total reported hospitalizations, and hospitalization only resulted in between 0.2%-7.9% of all child COVID-19 cases. Further, analyzing data from 42 states, children were between 0% 0.26% of all COVID-19 deaths (17 states reported zero child deaths), and in states reporting, between 0% and 0.16% of all child COVID-19 cases resulted in death.  Given these figures, you'd be hard-pressed to argue COVID is dangerous to children.

2. The present implementation and enforcement of COVID guidelines have put us in a place from which it'll be hard to dig out.  First the lockdowns were to flatten the curve -- something that, aside from individual liberty concerns, seems to have been an appropriate response, particularly if judged by the results: we flattened the curve and we saved our hospital system from being overwhelmed. (I'll leave for the future sociologists and epidemiologists the question of correlation vs. causation.)  Now, however, we're seven or so months into the pandemic, and the lockdowns appear now aimed to eradicating the virus. Never before has this been tried, let alone been successful, and to ignore the countervailing concerns (e.g. substance abuse, child abuse, etc.) is to either play ostrich or to have some ulterior motive.  And I found the age-old comparison to speeding laws to be directly on point.  We as a society accept certain levels of risk because the costs in eliminating that risk far outweigh benefits -- and yes, for those keeping score at home, that means we make societal choices that value things more highly than life, in this case 35,000 people a year.  So the question he asks, that remains, and that will remain, is this: Given the controlling view on the pandemic, e.g. lockdowns, quarantines, isolations, mask wearing, social distancing, etc., how do we return to normal? What has to happen for the controlling view to revert to the way it was not in Oct 2020, but Oct 2019? Short of a bunch of hypocrisy, convenience, complete change of opinion, or a miracle, I don't see it.

3. He is correct that it seems schools, at least in NJ, are going above and beyond DOH requirements. For example, (i) quarantining entire classes as a result of a single positive infection and (ii) banning Yom Tov guests in an outdoor sukkah, is substantially stricter than NJ DOH guidelines. That said, he does not address what I (charitably) believe to be the reason underlying that approach.  Preliminarily, NJ DOH guidelines contain no middle ground between “Schools open” and “Schools closed.” As a result, the approach taken by the schools is, I believe, to craft their own middle ground so as to avoid the latter consequence. Reasonable minds, of course, can argue where to draw the line in this quest for a middle ground (perhaps a non-mandatory 14-day quarantine is too long, perhaps a quarantine AND mask wearing is too burdensome, perhaps we get rid of plexiglass, perhaps we allow guests on YT), but there does appear to be a method to the madness. Further, the apparent dichotomy he notes between the approach we have taken with respect to our children and school vs. the approach that we have taken with respect to adults can be explained, too, by the schools underlying motive: avoiding school closure.

4. The mesirah and loshon hara is rampant, inappropriate, and egregious. The end.

1. Is a strawman argument which consumes much of the article. You'd be hard pressed to find reasonable people that believe otherwise. Certainly not the prevailing majority.

2. a) Lockdowns now are not the same as they were in the beginning, and a child wearing a mask is not locking down a school. Sure if a school does not have good measures they will probably have an outbreak and may get shutdown, but school can resume when things are under control again. If you don't believe in children being able to spread COVID then you have nothing to worry about, school will never have an outbreak. Unfortunately research and experience shows otherwise.
b) 35,000 deaths a year for cars is nothing compared to 200k+ in 7 months with most of that time spent trying to get it under control. Imagine people only used cars to go to grocery stores and still managed to kill 350k people annually, 10x your number. What would the death rate in cars be if people drove everywhere - likely over a million. Is that a number which will make you consider the risk of driving? Or do we accept any risk no matter how high because that's life. 35k deaths for the flu is a made up number. The confirmed death rate is 3-15k annually, which is why you rarely heard of people dying from the flu but you know more that died from COVID in a single week.
Visibly Jewish

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2020, 06:27:34 PM »
1. Is a strawman argument which consumes much of the article. You'd be hard pressed to find reasonable people that believe otherwise. Certainly not the prevailing majority.

2. a) Lockdowns now are not the same as they were in the beginning, and a child wearing a mask is not locking down a school. Sure if a school does not have good measures they will probably have an outbreak and may get shutdown, but school can resume when things are under control again. If you don't believe in children being able to spread COVID then you have nothing to worry about, school will never have an outbreak. Unfortunately research and experience shows otherwise.
b) 35,000 deaths a year for cars is nothing compared to 200k+ in 7 months with most of that time spent trying to get it under control. Imagine people only used cars to go to grocery stores and still managed to kill 350k people annually, 10x your number. What would the death rate in cars be if people drove everywhere - likely over a million. Is that a number which will make you consider the risk of driving? Or do we accept any risk no matter how high because that's life. 35k deaths for the flu is a made up number. The confirmed death rate is 3-15k annually, which is why you rarely heard of people dying from the flu but you know more that died from COVID in a single week.
The other strawman is eggagerating the negative effects of masking and distancing.

If you beleive kids are safe, kids can't spread it to adults, and masks cause severe depression, you will come to a different conclusion than if you don't beleive those things.

Offline etech0

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #25 on: October 01, 2020, 06:28:07 PM »
If a school has a large number of cases, how do we know if the school "has an outbreak" and should be shut down (or further restrictions taken), or if it simply an indicator of an outbreak in the community?
Workflowy. You won't know what you're missing until you try it.

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #26 on: October 01, 2020, 06:32:13 PM »
Also, if you have a school of 1000 kids and 40 of them got hospitalized each year and you knew the school could have prevented it... You'd probably send your kids to a different school.

Offline AJK

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #27 on: October 01, 2020, 06:34:45 PM »
Also, if you have a school of 1000 kids and 40 of them got hospitalized each year and you knew the school could have prevented it... You'd probably send your kids to a different school.

You know who else would probably send their kids to a diff school?

The parents of the other 960 kids in response to the school shutting down as a result or otherwise onerously catering to the needs of the 40.
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Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #28 on: October 01, 2020, 06:37:10 PM »
You know who else would probably send their kids to a diff school?

The parents of the other 960 kids in response to the school shutting down as a result or otherwise onerously catering to the needs of the 40.
The problem is when you work with an exponentially increasing number, you're small rate of cases starts to really add up.

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #29 on: October 01, 2020, 06:39:27 PM »
Let's assume your median number of 4% of pediatric covid cases end up hospitalized (frankly, I've never seen this number, so forgive me if this number isn't right - I'm just using your given facts).

NYC alone has over 1 million school children. If we assume with zero precautions 25% get it, that's 10k hospitalizations per year, jsut in NYC. Add in surrounding areas, and you see how this could be a problem.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #30 on: October 01, 2020, 07:29:08 PM »
Let's assume your median number of 4% of pediatric covid cases end up hospitalized (frankly, I've never seen this number, so forgive me if this number isn't right - I'm just using your given facts).

NYC alone has over 1 million school children. If we assume with zero precautions 25% get it, that's 10k hospitalizations per year, jsut in NYC. Add in surrounding areas, and you see how this could be a problem.
I'm not sure where you get 4% from, but even if true it's 4% of confirmed cases. Since most children are asymptomatic, there are likely 10x or more infections than confirmed cases.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline ari3

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #31 on: October 01, 2020, 07:36:06 PM »
b) 35,000 deaths a year for cars is nothing compared to 200k+ in 7 months

 35k deaths for the flu is a made up number. The confirmed death rate is 3-15k annually.
Somehow the 200k+ covid deaths are confirmed but the 35k flu deaths are a made up number. We need some intellectual honesty (on both sides)

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #32 on: October 01, 2020, 07:37:37 PM »
I'm not sure where you get 4% from, but even if true it's 4% of confirmed cases. Since most children are asymptomatic, there are likely 10x or more infections than confirmed cases.
The exact numbers don't matter (I took it from @AJK by taking the midpoint of the study he quoted.

My point is that if schools have an R(t) that is materially above 1, the exact rate of hospitalizations and deaths don't matter since everyone will get it.

Imagine a world where each car accident caused another 2 car accidents. You'd probably be a lot more concerned about stopping car accidents.

Offline ari3

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #33 on: October 01, 2020, 07:45:45 PM »
Let's assume your median number of 4% of pediatric covid cases end up hospitalized (frankly, I've never seen this number, so forgive me if this number isn't right - I'm just using your given facts).

NYC alone has over 1 million school children. If we assume with zero precautions 25% get it, that's 10k hospitalizations per year, jsut in NYC. Add in surrounding areas, and you see how this could be a problem.
Your numbers don't add up. There are tens of thousands of children in the tristate area in school for the last month with little to no precautions. How many pediatric hospitalizations has that resulted in? Somewhere around zero.

In our communities how many children had covid in march? thousands. How many hospitalizations? IDK but not many

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #34 on: October 01, 2020, 07:51:58 PM »
Somehow the 200k+ covid deaths are confirmed but the 35k flu deaths are a made up number. We need some intellectual honesty (on both sides)
Why do you feel that this is not honest
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #35 on: October 01, 2020, 07:56:31 PM »
Somehow the 200k+ covid deaths are confirmed but the 35k flu deaths are a made up number. We need some intellectual honesty (on both sides)
200k is an actual count. 35k is a random estimate.
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Offline S209

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #36 on: October 01, 2020, 08:01:04 PM »
Somehow the 200k+ covid deaths are confirmed but the 35k flu deaths are a made up number. We need some intellectual honesty (on both sides)
There have been over 200K *confirmed* COVID deaths. That means it says that on the death certificate as the primary/tertiary cause of death.

There are not 35K *confirmed* flu deaths a year. The number is an estimate. The number of confirmed flu deaths each year are 3K-15K.

How is that not intellectually honest?
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Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #37 on: October 01, 2020, 08:01:57 PM »
The flu comparisons are beyond dumb. Last I checked -

200k>>>>35k

Theres never been a flu shutdown
We didn't wear masks or observe distancing as a result.

I would imagine if we did those things, flu deaths would also go down tremendously.

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #38 on: October 01, 2020, 08:03:17 PM »
Your numbers don't add up. There are tens of thousands of children in the tristate area in school for the last month with little to no precautions. How many pediatric hospitalizations has that resulted in? Somewhere around zero.

In our communities how many children had covid in march? thousands. How many hospitalizations? IDK but not many
False. I know multiple young children who have been in the hospital for COVID, including 2 on my block. IINM there was a child in the ICU in Lakewood last week for COVID.
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Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: Sacrificing Our Children on the Altar of Covid Fear
« Reply #39 on: October 01, 2020, 08:15:36 PM »
You know who else would probably send their kids to a diff school?

The parents of the other 960 kids in response to the school shutting down as a result or otherwise onerously catering to the needs of the 40.
But you don't know who the 40 are.