Fortunately, we have every other country in the world to compare ourselves to. While there are certainly key differences in the makeup and circumstances of each country, we can use the available data and metrics to see what succeeded and what failed.
Comparing to other countries is not the same as a clinical trial where all other factors would be identical except the one variable that you're looking to see if it would cause another outcome.
For that matter you don't have to compare to other countries. You can just compare responses between states. Probably already discussed many many times - FL and NY which have similar population size but FL likely has many more elderly. FL by now has 50% more reported cases than NY but almost half the amount of deaths. The data says it all for those who like to harp on data.
But again, I reiterate that short of having all the same factors in place and then implementing 2 different plans its really not possible to know.
In the meantime, mask wearing, hand washing, SD (and online shopping
) it is.