Second Wave length

[4yourinfo]

Fauci says US is still in its first wave of coronavirus infections

[Lurker]

Fauci says US is still in its first wave of coronavirus infections

It's a matter of semantics. He says it's still part of an elongated first wave because we weren't able to get our cases down low enough to ever end the first wave. Call it what you want, but 6 figure daily case counts are coming.

[justaregularguy]

Well really it makes a little difference bc 1st wave was defined as something that came as a surprise and we slowly beat it back but not fully yet. A second wave would mean it’s coming from the people who are being lax with social distancing measures so the blame can go around. So it kind of makes a difference if we’re still in the not our fault wave or the it’s-our-fault-it’s-back 2nd wave (or third wave some media say it is)

[Lurker]

Well really it makes a little difference bc 1st wave was defined as something that came as a surprise and we slowly beat it back but not fully yet. A second wave would mean it’s coming from the people who are being lax with social distancing measures so the blame can go around. So it kind of makes a difference if we’re still in the not our fault wave or the it’s-our-fault-it’s-back 2nd wave (or third wave some media say it is)

Ultimately, we were expecting a wave right about now, and we were expecting it to be worse than what we had previously dealt with. We can blame it on whatever we want and call it whatever we want, but it is what it is, and it's here.

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/naomiohreally/status/1320797836699701249?s=24

[S209]

I’m guessing it is peaking now. Most places don’t have sustained peaks for long, behavior change or not. You can’t do the same thing over and over and infect that many new people. Most people who are destined to be exposed in this wave will have by now and numbers should start to drop off.

While it may still be too early to tell, it’s looking more like behavior change (no weddings and school, more precautions by more people) was what caused the subsequent drop.. which is why it’s ticking back up (now confirmed by 3 doctors). There is a doctor’s meeting this morning about the uptick. Let’s see what happens.


How many lives will we risk on a gamble? Last one cost us 17 (and counting).

[S209]

Now just a handful of people in the hospital. A few serious, mostly from a few weeks ago. Indeed the wave peaked sharply and quickly dropped off by succos despite few changes in behavior. The one thing absent was weddings so with those resuming let’s see if there is any impact.

Looks like you were wrong- the difference *was* the behavior changing. Now that weddings and schools have resumed, the tents around town have been packed up, and masks have been all but put away, cases are shooting up around town.

A thousand cases in the last 3 weeks. A couple of recent hospitalizations. I’m personally aware of 5 families with active COVID.

Do you agree that your assessment was wrong?

[aygart]

Looks like you were wrong- the difference *was* the behavior changing. Now that weddings and schools have resumed, the tents around town have been packed up, and masks have been all but put away, cases are shooting up around town.

A thousand cases in the last 3 weeks. A couple of recent hospitalizations. I’m personally aware of 5 families with active COVID.

Do you agree that your assessment was wrong?

LOL
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=121714.0

[S209]

LOL
https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=121714.0

[yzj]

Looks like you were wrong- the difference *was* the behavior changing. Now that weddings and schools have resumed, the tents around town have been packed up, and masks have been all but put away, cases are shooting up around town.

A thousand cases in the last 3 weeks. A couple of recent hospitalizations. I’m personally aware of 5 families with active COVID.

Do you agree that your assessment was wrong?

The last wave ended 2 months ago. It’s entirely possible that a 3rd is beginning. The point was that is was going to peak regardless. As it has in the chareidi sector in Israel. As it will shortly do in Newark’s East Ward where it is currently raging and the residents there have no interest in taking any health precautions. The second wave in Lakewood peaked before Yom Kippur. The vast majority of Lakewood residents were not taking any significant precautions. Thousands of kids in school. Thousands of guys crammed into BMG. hundreds packed in the shuls. Kiddushim galore. And the virus peaked nonetheless.The assessment was on target.

[S209]

The last wave ended 2 months ago. It’s entirely possible that a 3rd is beginning. The point was that is was going to peak regardless. As it has in the chareidi sector in Israel. As it will shortly do in Newark’s East Ward where it is currently raging and the residents there have no interest in taking any health precautions. The assessment was on target.

Sorry? You claimed that it was despite no behavioral changes, yet also have said that weddings are the single largest problem. The wave started a few weeks after wedding season started, ended a few weeks after they ended, and now started again a few weeks after they’ve restarted.

Explain how you reached your conclusion?

[yzj]

Sorry? You claimed that it was despite no behavioral changes, yet also have said that weddings are the single largest problem. The wave started a few weeks after wedding season started, ended a few weeks after they ended, and now started again a few weeks after they’ve restarted.

Explain how you reached your conclusion?

Weddings are what appeared to initiate the second wave but it progressed to community spread in shuls, schools etc. I think we can all agree that it progressed to the point that there was widespread community spread outside of weddings. Stopping the weddings did not bring the wave to a halt. The wave peaking is what did. It appears that weddings are once again initiating spread and the risk of a more widespread transmission is increasing.

[S209]

Weddings are what appeared to initiate the second wave but it progressed to community spread in shuls, schools etc. I think we can all agree that it progressed to the point that there was widespread community spread outside of weddings. Stopping the weddings did not bring the wave to a halt. The wave peaking is what did. It appears that weddings are once again initiating spread and the risk of a more widespread transmission is increasing.

So to be clear: you believe that even if weddings would have continued the spread would have stopped regardless, but now that weddings have restarted they are starting a new wave?

Explain.

[S209]

There was definitely community spread outside of weddings, as there is now (see my parents as an example). But weddings were a large driver of infection and the behavioral change of starting/stopping/restarting weddings seems likely to have been a major differentiator. How can you argue that stopping weddings made no difference but starting them again does?

Weddings and large events serve to offset population immunity, because infected people get to be in close contact with many people outside of their regular circles for extended periods of time. Weddings need to be extremely restricted effective immediately if we are to prevent/limit another wave from engulfing Lakewood and possibly losing even more korbanos r”l.

[yzj]

There was definitely community spread outside of weddings, as there is now (see my parents as an example). But weddings were a large driver of infection and the behavioral change of starting/stopping/restarting weddings seems likely to have been a major differentiator. How can you argue that stopping weddings made no difference but starting them again does?

Weddings and large events serve to offset population immunity, because infected people get to be in close contact with many people outside of their regular circles for extended periods of time. Weddings need to be extremely restricted effective immediately if we are to prevent/limit another wave from engulfing Lakewood and possibly losing even more korbanos r”l.

I agree with the need to stop large weddings. Let’s see what happens in the US through Xmas. If it peaks despite the increased travel and family gatherings (and I believe that it will)that would be a good indicator that peaks happen regardless of behavior changes.

[iluv2travel]

Yomim Tovim in shul are not that different than weddings other than food - you have lots of people packed together for hours singing and swaying together. Simchas Torah is obviously the most similar because you add dancing and food. Add families getting together for many Yom Tov seudos.

And then shortly after yom tov was over we went straight into oifrufs followed by actually weddings again.

Also, remember that after Shavuos there were a good few weeks of packed regular weddings with no spike following that (just to throw in a wrench).

[S209]

I agree with the need to stop large weddings. Let’s see what happens in the US through Xmas. If it peaks despite the increased travel and family gatherings (and I believe that it will)that would be a good indicator that peaks happen regardless of behavior changes.

What date do you have it pegged as peaking? It certainly will peak at some point, as all virus waves do eventually. But the 7 day daily average has been on the rise for the last 77 days, crossing the 100K per day threshold 3 weeks ago.

Most epidemiologists (who, you might recall, correctly predicted the timeline and trajectory of the second wave) expect it to continue through Jan/Feb.

[PlatinumGuy]

Also, remember that after Shavuos there were a good few weeks of packed regular weddings with no spike following that (just to throw in a wrench).

The most annoying argument in all of Covid. Nobody ever claimed every gathering will spread Covid. The problem is when covid is spreading, gatherings exacerbate it

Yomim Tovim in shul are not that different than weddings

They are very different because they are a constant bubble. At least 60% of the people in a shul are there regularly and not in any other large gathering other than immediate family. So if everybody in Shul gets covid, it's much more likely to stay contained. People are also going to be more aware about it.

A wedding is 50 people from each of those shuls. If everybody at the wedding gets it, it's going into 50 different shuls. And if everybody in a shul gets it, it's going into 50 different weddings.

Obviously, nothing here is absolute, but the increased odds make a big difference over the long term.

[yzj]

What date do you have it pegged as peaking? It certainly will peak at some point, as all virus waves do eventually. But the 7 day daily average has been on the rise for the last 77 days, crossing the 100K per day threshold 3 weeks ago.

Most epidemiologists (who, you might recall, correctly predicted the timeline and trajectory of the second wave) expect it to continue through Jan/Feb.

My guess is that we will see the US peak and then subside in the next 2-3 weeks long before vaccines have an impact.

[iluv2travel]

The most annoying argument in all of Covid. Nobody ever claimed every gathering will spread Covid. The problem is when covid is spreading, gatherings exacerbate it

 They are very different because they are a constant bubble. At least 60% of the people in a shul are there regularly and not in any other large gathering other than immediate family. So if everybody in Shul gets covid, it's much more likely to stay contained. People are also going to be more aware about it.

A wedding is 50 people from each of those shuls. If everybody at the wedding gets it, it's going into 50 different shuls. And if everybody in a shul gets it, it's going into 50 different weddings.

Obviously, nothing here is absolute, but the increased odds make a big difference over the long term.

Sorry to have annoyed you - that wasn't my goal. But I won't argue that point either way as not to make further annoying arguments.

Let's ignore that everyone from shul goes home to sometimes rather large immediate family seudos with couples and children and grandchildren many of them who came from different local towns or cities and drive home thereafter taking contagion with them if its happening.

I didn't say its exactly the same as weddings and its not necessary to compare and contrast each technical detail, but the potential for spreading on a smaller scale is definitely there.