Second Wave length

[PlatinumGuy]

Sorry to have annoyed you - that wasn't my goal. But I won't argue that point either way as not to make further annoying arguments.

Let's ignore that everyone from shul goes home to sometimes rather large immediate family seudos with couples and children and grandchildren many of them who came from different local towns or cities and drive home thereafter taking contagion with them if its happening.

I didn't say its exactly the same as weddings and its not necessary to compare and contrast each technical detail, but the potential for spreading on a smaller scale is definitely there.

And it's been spreading on a smaller scale...

[S209]

So basically, you believe this wave will last 13-14 weeks total? Random number. Where did you get it from?

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1324303335105744896?s=21

Obviously this doesn't mean weddings and shuls aren't an even larger problem.

[Euclid]

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1324303335105744896?s=21

Obviously this doesn't mean weddings and shuls aren't an even larger problem.

Major correlation there. Kids going back to school happens the same time as lifting the other restrictions.

[S209]

Major correlation there. Kids going back to school happens the same time as lifting the other restrictions.

Exactly

[PlatinumGuy]

Major correlation there. Kids going back to school happens the same time as lifting the other restrictions.

The Lancet study only used data from times when school opening/closing was the only intervention. You have that privilege when evaluating 131 countries.

Second, we presented the effect of individual NPIs by only including phases in which just one NPI was changed.

[Euclid]

The Lancet study only used data from times when school opening/closing was the only intervention. You have that privilege when evaluating 131 countries.

Fair; I didn't read the study, just the tweet.
Does it consider that parents were able to go back to work since their kids went to school?

[aygart]

Fair; I didn't read the study, just the tweet.
Does it consider that parents were able to go back to work since their kids went to school?

Does anyone really think that there is no spread in schools?

[S209]

Does anyone really think that there is no spread in schools?

YES. MANY.


(No opinions/beliefs should surprise anyone at this point, especially vis a vis COVID).

[Euclid]

Does anyone really think that there is no spread in schools?

Not "no spread", rather "very minimal spread". Fauci seemed to intimate that today too.

I do think a distinction in these studies need to be made between kids < 10 and older than 10. (Yes, I know you have an anecdote of a first grader spreading it to his parents, but this seems overwhelmingly rare.)

[aygart]

YES. MANY.


(No opinions/beliefs should surprise anyone at this point, especially vis a vis COVID).

I mean really believe it

[aygart]

Not "no spread", rather "very minimal spread". Fauci seemed to intimate that today too.

I do think a distinction in these studies need to be made between kids < 10 and older than 10. (Yes, I know you have an anecdote of a first grader spreading it to his parents, but this seems overwhelmingly rare.)

Hire do you define minimal?

[PlatinumGuy]

Does anyone really think that there is no spread in schools?

Think is a strong word, but many definitely seem to believe so.

[Euclid]

Hire do you define minimal?

Dunno - but enough that they think schools shouldn't be closed.

https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1333054354077716480

[S209]

Dunno - but enough that they think schools shouldn't be closed.

https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1333054354077716480

Cost/benefit may play a large role in that advice. Schools seem to be smaller spreaders than other places and the value is certainly very high.

Not "no spread", rather "very minimal spread". Fauci seemed to intimate that today too.

I do think a distinction in these studies need to be made between kids < 10 and older than 10. (Yes, I know you have an anecdote of a first grader spreading it to his parents, but this seems overwhelmingly rare.)

My 9 year old brother caught it from a 9 year old and passed it along to another friend his age.

[Euclid]

Cost/benefit may play a large role in that advice. Schools seem to be smaller spreaders than other places and the value is certainly very high.

Fair.

My 9 year old brother caught it from a 9 year old and passed it along to another friend his age.

Lakewood kids have always been a bit precocious.

[aygart]

Cost/benefit may play a large role in that advice. Schools seem to be smaller spreaders than other places and the value is certainly very high.My 9 year old brother caught it from a 9 year old and passed it along to another friend his age.

This