Second Wave length

[Euclid]

How long do you think the second wave in the frum community will last? The first wave seemed to die down after about 6 weeks, but that may have been due to the lockdown which forced infected people to stay home by default. In this wave, it looks like there's a sizable portion of "Covidiots" who mingle with the public even while infected; additionally, the public places (offices, shuls, schools) are open (still with little precautions) this wave, as opposed (generally) to during the first wave/lockdown.


A lockdown this time will likely be ineffective, as the community will quite probably just find loopholes to circumvent (or just completely ignore it).

[S209]

How long do you think the second wave in the frum community will last? The first wave seemed to die down after about 6 weeks, but that may have been due to the lockdown which forced infected people to stay home by default. In this wave, it looks like there's a sizable portion of "Covidiots" who mingle with the public even while infected; additionally, the public places (offices, shuls, schools) are open (still with little precautions) this wave, as opposed (generally) to during the first wave/lockdown.


A lockdown this time will likely be ineffective, as the community will quite probably just find loopholes to circumvent (or just completely ignore it).

Shuls are starting to be makpid about COVID+/exposed people attending, and I imagine schools will as well. Stores and other places are much more makpid on masks and distancing, and a sizable percentage of the population is being more cautious. Factor in increased population immunity and the fact that we’re deeper in than the numbers have told us (we’re probably in week 3 of this full outbreak) and the 6 weeks Dr.s Cohen/Lempel suggested before Yom Kippur make sense. I can see this starting to subside in another few weeks with increased adherence.

[Lurker]

The bulk of the wave will be over within the next 6 weeks. We will most likely still see cases through the winter and into the third wave in spring. The rest of the surrounding areas will get hit through the winter, and people's immunity from the first wave will run out over that same time.

[yzj]

I’m guessing it is peaking now. Most places don’t have sustained peaks for long, behavior change or not. You can’t do the same thing over and over and infect that many new people. Most people who are destined to be exposed in this wave will have by now and numbers should start to drop off.

[S209]

I’m guessing it is peaking now. Most places don’t have sustained peaks for long, behavior change or not. You can’t do the same thing over and over and infect that many new people. Most people who are destined to be exposed in this wave will have by now and numbers should start to drop off.

Then again, you said one month ago

Here’s a question for all of those out there saying that there is community spread. Let’s say for example you have an area that has herd immunity. Multiple weddings each week expose those who are still susceptible (remember, herd immunity doesn’t mean everyone is immune) to outsiders, resulting in lets say, 60 new cases. Let’s say herd immunity means the R factor is now .8.

Those 50 cases will infect 40 new people on average in the community who will go on to infect 32 who will go on to infect approximately 26 etc. until that line of transmission dies out when it hits 5.

That means after a few such weeks the numbers will increase (remember it takes time for each generation to affect the next) we will see a couple hundred “community acquired” cases each week. If the wedding numbers go up, we will have a proportionately larger number of cases. Is that evidence of community spread and a massive coming wave, or of herd immunity? Hint- read up on herd immunity.

Is this prediction better or worse than that one?

[yzj]

Then again, you said one month agoIs this prediction better or worse than that one?

The numbers were not evidence of community spread. Subsequent numbers obviously were. What does that have to do with charts from multiple locations all over the world most of which show a sharp peak and then quick drop off even absent any evidence of behavior change?

[S209]

The numbers were not evidence of community spread. Subsequent numbers obviously were. What does that have to do with charts from multiple locations all over the world most of which show a sharp peak and then quick drop off even absent any evidence of behavior change?

I’m sure you can find reason to be mechalek between your two predictions but the numbers certainly did not point to herd immunity. Caution would have been in order, unlike what you were proposing.

Please point to any location in the world that has had no behavior change. In Sweden, the first wave took months, and there most definitely were some behavior changes as well.

[good sam]

I’m guessing it is peaking now. Most places don’t have sustained peaks for long, behavior change or not. You can’t do the same thing over and over and infect that many new people. Most people who are destined to be exposed in this wave will have by now and numbers should start to drop off.

Wishful thinking

[yzj]

I’m sure you can find reason to be mechalek between your two predictions but the numbers certainly did not point to herd immunity. Caution would have been in order, unlike what you were proposing.

Please point to any location in the world that has had no behavior change. In Sweden, the first wave took months, and there most definitely were some behavior changes as well.

Most charts are quick peaks and drops. Do most countries charts track neatly with mobility data? I seem to remember articles that showed otherwise but don’t have time to look.

[S209]

Most charts are quick peaks and drops. Do most countries charts track neatly with mobility data? I seem to remember articles that showed otherwise but don’t have time to look.

That’s ok, I’ll wait for you to provide the source for your assertion that behavioral changes had no impact on the size and length of the wave

[shaulyaakov]

The billion dollar question is whether the rate of reinfection of people who had it will climb, or will it continue to be rare (and thus explained away by false positives in many cases).

[S209]

Most charts are quick peaks and drops. Do most countries charts track neatly with mobility data? I seem to remember articles that showed otherwise but don’t have time to look.

In the meantime, while we wait on your source, here’s this for some food for thought on behavioral changes and impacting waves

[Lurker]

Most charts are quick peaks and drops. Do most countries charts track neatly with mobility data? I seem to remember articles that showed otherwise but don’t have time to look.

Just a DP: FL peaked on July 16. Over the next 30 days, they still recorded 265k new cases.

(ETA: Also since that peak... over 10k deaths. But who's counting?)

[yzj]

I’m guessing it is peaking now. Most places don’t have sustained peaks for long, behavior change or not. You can’t do the same thing over and over and infect that many new people. Most people who are destined to be exposed in this wave will have by now and numbers should start to drop off.

The sense from those on the ground is that at least for the time being the hospital situation is decidedly taking a turn for the better. Much of the activity is now treating discharged patients at home as they recuperate. Admissions are slowing. Things can certainly fluctuate but for the moment things are improved.

[S209]

The sense from those on the ground is that at least for the time being the hospital situation is decidedly taking a turn for the better. Much of the activity is now treating discharged patients at home as they recuperate. Admissions are slowing. Things can certainly fluctuate but for the moment things are improved.

I really really want to believe this. Do you have a source?

[yzj]

At least two sources, but I really would not read any more into it than an at the moment snapshot. I’d like to read more into it but that really wouldn’t be prudent.

[S209]

At least two sources, but I really would not read any more into it than an at the moment snapshot. I’d like to read more into it but that really wouldn’t be prudent.

Smart, when some of us have a history of posts like this

Come on guys. Lakewood shuls have been open for the better part of a month with thousands of those mispalelim practicing no social distancing whatsoever. Thousands of Lakewood kids are back in school- many of them indoors. Walk around the neighborhood and kids  are all playing with each other in and out of houses. Girls are getting together in houses- dozens at a time. Clothing and other retail stores are open (back door etc.) and many shoppers are without masks.All over town one sees people practically all over each other, and all we have to show for it are 2 positive cases in all of last week.

Where is the huge scary second wave you guys keep telling us is coming to Lakewood because there can’t possibly be herd immunity . I’d like to have bitachon that it’s still coming but I must say it sure ain’t easy.

[aygart]

Smart, when some of us have a history of posts like this

Stop it

[S209]

Stop it

OK 

[yzj]

It is now clear that the absence of sources of spread that was shielding Lakewood rather than herd immunity. This does not rule out herd immunity going forward. It simply shows that it is not as simple to achieve as was believed.