Second Wave length

[S209]

It is now clear that the absence of sources of spread that was shielding Lakewood rather than herd immunity. This does not rule out herd immunity going forward. It simply shows that it is not as simple to achieve as was believed.

Believed by who? That is exactly what anyone with a clear head said it could be. There was never any proof of herd immunity, though it was a nice *theory* at the time.

[aygart]

Believed by who? That is exactly what anyone with a clear head said it could be. There was never any proof of herd immunity, though it was a nice *theory* at the time.

Stop it

[S209]

That too?

[aygart]

That too?

He was honest enough to own up that it was an incorrect assumption. Give him credit and don't rub it in.

[S209]

He was honest enough to own up that it was an incorrect assumption. Give him credit and don't rub it in.

But is he making a similar mistake now in assuming certain things in the same vein as he has previously? It’s pretty tough to stick with the herd immunity assumption right now..

But yes, he deserves credit for that. Agreed.

[aygart]

But is he making a similar mistake now in assuming certain things in the same vein as he has previously? It’s pretty tough to stick with the herd immunity assumption right now..

But yes, he deserves credit for that. Agreed.

How so?

[S209]

How so?

Seems the assumption that behavior has no impact on the virus is persisting

I’m guessing it is peaking now. Most places don’t have sustained peaks for long, behavior change or not. You can’t do the same thing over and over and infect that many new people. Most people who are destined to be exposed in this wave will have by now and numbers should start to drop off.

Most charts are quick peaks and drops. Do most countries charts track neatly with mobility data? I seem to remember articles that showed otherwise but don’t have time to look.

Wow. Maybe there’s a message here to live life normally with reasonable precautions. I know many people who holed up in their apartments with toddlers for months and months with no socializing for them or their kids, only to finally throw in the towel and emerge just when the virus is on the upswing, emotionally exhausted, toddlers suffering socially, with so little to show for it.

[yzj]

There are some nice seforim on inyanei Hoshana Rabbah you could look at instead of this. Was just looking at one. I recommend it.

[Lurker]

It is now clear that the absence of sources of spread that was shielding Lakewood rather than herd immunity. This does not rule out herd immunity going forward. It simply shows that it is not as simple to achieve as was believed.

I think reinfections rule out herd immunity.

[yzj]

I think reinfections rule out herd immunity.

Not necessarily. Y TU hat would really depend on the R0 omong those reinfected.

[Lurker]

Not necessarily. Y TU hat would really depend on the R0 omong those reinfected.

I should rephrase that. Based in how quickly this virus spreads, I think reinfections make any possible herd immunity temporary, at best.

[yzj]

The sense from those on the ground is that at least for the time being the hospital situation is decidedly taking a turn for the better. Much of the activity is now treating discharged patients at home as they recuperate. Admissions are slowing. Things can certainly fluctuate but for the moment things are improved.

It sounds like transports we’re down over y”t and discharges were up. Still looking better for the time being.

[yzj]

I’m guessing it is peaking now. Most places don’t have sustained peaks for long, behavior change or not. You can’t do the same thing over and over and infect that many new people. Most people who are destined to be exposed in this wave will have by now and numbers should start to drop off.

Last I heard it sounded like a total of around 130 were hospitalized and around 100 of those have returned home.

[yzj]

I’m guessing it is peaking now. Most places don’t have sustained peaks for long, behavior change or not. You can’t do the same thing over and over and infect that many new people. Most people who are destined to be exposed in this wave will have by now and numbers should start to drop off.

The sense from those on the ground is that at least for the time being the hospital situation is decidedly taking a turn for the better. Much of the activity is now treating discharged patients at home as they recuperate. Admissions are slowing. Things can certainly fluctuate but for the moment things are improved.

Last I heard it sounded like a total of around 130 were hospitalized and around 100 of those have returned home.

Now just a handful of people in the hospital. A few serious, mostly from a few weeks ago. Indeed the wave peaked sharply and quickly dropped off by succos despite few changes in behavior. The one thing absent was weddings so with those resuming let’s see if there is any impact.

[S209]

Now just a handful of people in the hospital. A few serious, mostly from a few weeks ago. Indeed the wave peaked sharply and quickly dropped off by succos despite few changes in behavior. The one thing absent was weddings so with those resuming let’s see if there is any impact.

You’re only talking about Lakewood, correct? According to this your numbers seem to be about right.

Since September 12: 130 hospitalized, 112 discharged, 5 niftar, 15 still hospitalized, 6 critical.

[yzj]

You’re only talking about Lakewood, correct? According to this your numbers seem to be about right.

Since September 12: 130 hospitalized, 112 discharged, 5 niftar, 15 still hospitalized, 6 critical.

Yes.

[yuneeq]

3rd wave?



Misleading because US is a huge place and all states don't have simultaneous outbreaks, but interesting regardless. Deaths on the other hand are looking much better, despite hospitalizations in 2nd peak being equal to the first, deaths were around half. 3rd peak will hopefull be even lower.

[mrteethcentury21]

Shuls are starting to be makpid about COVID+/exposed people attending, and I imagine schools will as well. Stores and other places are much more makpid on masks and distancing, and a sizable percentage of the population is being more cautious. Factor in increased population immunity and the fact that we’re deeper in than the numbers have told us (we’re probably in week 3 of this full outbreak) and the 6 weeks Dr.s Cohen/Lempel suggested before Yom Kippur make sense. I can see this starting to subside in another few weeks with increased adherence.

I laughed a lot when I saw the term Covidiots, and you re totally right. In my neighborhood, there are bunches of them. People who still don t believe in Covid and you see them walking around no masks, no sunglasses. The kind of people who realize about the virus when someone close to them is about to die because of it.

[iwlw2]

The kind of people who realize about the virus when someone close to them is about to die because of it.

The saddest and most inexplicable thing to me, is that I know several people who actually had a family member die and/or others hospitalized, and they STILL don't take it seriously at all, to the point that one of them (father dies of COVID, brother and sister were hospitalized at the time) was actually hassling me about wearing a mask in shul.... There are none so blind as those who do not wish to see......

[yzj]

Then again, you said one month ago

Is this prediction better or worse than that one?

A doctor I spoke with last night told me he has not seen any positives since Yom Tov, and said he’s picked up the same sentiment from other providers around town. While there may be symptomatic people not testing, he said he’s conducted plenty of test on people both symptomatic and feeling fine, just as he was through through YT. Through Yom Tov, he was seeing many positives daily, and now he hasn’t seen once since.

Chasdei Hashem!

I guess you have your answer.