Second wave in (secular) NY and NJ

[S209]

It’s virtually guaranteed that this explosion in our communities will trigger a second wave across NY/NJ, although it will hopefully be sharply mitigated by the fairly strict measures still in place. Anybody who thinks that we can completely self contain this is fooling themselves. Some new outbreaks in other Jewish communities around NJ have already been linked to people from Lakewood.

How bad will the outbreak be for everyone else? Will the measures in place in tandem with some population immunity effectively keep the numbers much lower than what they’d been, or will they not be enough to ward off a major wave?

How drastic will the ensuing government actions be? If the past (and present) is any indication they will not hesitate to impose a full blown lockdown once again, even if the scope of the outbreak does not warrant it (as it did last time).

Will this be the cause of further anti-Semitism, with the outbreak being blamed (rightly or wrongly) on the Jews, or will it distract and cause people to forget where the initial spread came from?

[S209]

Source

[PlatinumGuy]

I think it will likely take 4-6 weeks until NJ introduces significant measures, but who knows.

[S209]

I think it will likely take 4-6 weeks until NJ introduces significant measures, but who knows.

From now, or from when it becomes widespread?

[PlatinumGuy]

From now, or from when it becomes widespread?

Now.

[Pupashtetl]

I see you're taking for granted that we're responsible for the outbreak. How about this?
Yesterday, the New York City Commission of Health and Mental Hygiene imposed a series of new restrictions on eight of these zip codes in Brooklyn and Queens. I will list the positivity rate in each zip code, as well as the number of positive tests.

Borough Park neighborhood of Brooklyn: 11219 (5%, 12) and 11204 (6%, 13).
Midwood neighborhood of Brooklyn: 11210 (4%, 7) and 11230 (8%, 29).
Gravesend neighborhood of Brooklyn: 11223 (4%, 11).
Sheepshead Bay neighborhood of Brooklyn: 11229 (4%, 11)
Kew Gardens neighborhood of Queens: 11415 (this zip code is not listed on Governor Cuomo's tweet)
Far Rockaway neighborhood of Queens: 11691 (3%, 7)
All of these zip codes are in predominantly Jewish neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens.

The Commissioner did not impose restrictions on six neighborhoods in New York that had comparable positivity rates and positive tests:

The Marine Basin neighborhood in Brooklyn: 11234 (4%, 10).
Two neighborhoods in the Bronx: 10465 (4%, 5) and 10462 (3%, 7).
The Inwood neighborhood of Manhattan: 10040 (4%, 7).
Two neighborhoods in Staten Island: 10306 (3%, 5) and 10304 (3%, 6). (I grew up very close to these zip codes).
These neighborhoods are not predominantly Jewish

[Lurker]

Those positivity rates and cases are from when? The previous day? Do you have 7 or 14 day numbers?

[S209]

I see you're taking for granted that we're responsible for the outbreak. How about this?
Yesterday, the New York City Commission of Health and Mental Hygiene imposed a series of new restrictions on eight of these zip codes in Brooklyn and Queens. I will list the positivity rate in each zip code, as well as the number of positive tests.

Borough Park neighborhood of Brooklyn: 11219 (5%, 12) and 11204 (6%, 13).
Midwood neighborhood of Brooklyn: 11210 (4%, 7) and 11230 (8%, 29).
Gravesend neighborhood of Brooklyn: 11223 (4%, 11).
Sheepshead Bay neighborhood of Brooklyn: 11229 (4%, 11)
Kew Gardens neighborhood of Queens: 11415 (this zip code is not listed on Governor Cuomo's tweet)
Far Rockaway neighborhood of Queens: 11691 (3%, 7)
All of these zip codes are in predominantly Jewish neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens.

The Commissioner did not impose restrictions on six neighborhoods in New York that had comparable positivity rates and positive tests:

The Marine Basin neighborhood in Brooklyn: 11234 (4%, 10).
Two neighborhoods in the Bronx: 10465 (4%, 5) and 10462 (3%, 7).
The Inwood neighborhood of Manhattan: 10040 (4%, 7).
Two neighborhoods in Staten Island: 10306 (3%, 5) and 10304 (3%, 6). (I grew up very close to these zip codes).
These neighborhoods are not predominantly Jewish

Yeah, that means nothing to me. I don’t live under a rock.

[yuneeq]

Those positivity rates and cases are from when? The previous day? Do you have 7 or 14 day numbers?

Those numbers are for a single day. Quite meaningless when the metrics they’ve repeatedly stated they are using is 7/14 day positivity rates. It’s kinda interesting to see the deceptive stats people are sharing so we can pretend that Jews aren’t consistently from the hardest hit areas. Another cute one I saw yesterday showed a map of case rates by zip code, showing other areas with high case rates. What they didn’t mention is case rates is a historical cumulative number dating back to March and continuously until today. Somehow the cases in March are relevant to an outbreak in October.