It's getting easier for me to see a Trump win. FL/NC/GA/TX/IA/OH all have decent polls that show Trump leading. PA/AZ/WI/MI have a relatively small lead for Biden of under 4%, and all but MI have oddball pollsters showing a small Trump win.
What's going against Trump is mainly the much larger gap in the national polls suggesting the pro Biden trend will be stronger in the swing states, the swing state polling average being way worse for Trump that the 2016 polls (PA -3.9% vs -2.1%, AZ -1.3% vs +4%) , and the Biden polls have him at 50%+, which is more than HRC had and less likely to be wrong.
The real unknown is the turnout numbers. If Election Day turnout underwhelms, there is no doubt Biden will win, as EV, especially in Texas, is clearly biased D. I don't think there is a consensus on how to interpret a large overall turnout if it includes ED.