Poll

Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

Biden
41 (26.5%)
Trump
79 (51%)
Tied up in court/decided by Supreme Court
32 (20.6%)
Electoral Tie
3 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 154

Author Topic: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?  (Read 138767 times)

Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #80 on: October 29, 2020, 12:03:14 AM »
Is Biden in Michigan for a senate seat? I’m not following it closely enough, but I think the D campaign considers the presidential vote in their pocket & focusing mainly on the senate now
Republican John James is close to unseating Democrat Gary Peters. That’s why Biden was in Michigan
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #81 on: October 29, 2020, 12:08:15 AM »
With minor adjustments 2016 couldn't have been contended? The margins were pretty slim with the popular vote...
No, I believe you would have to change the deciding state votes by more than 1,000,000
The popular vote is irrelevant
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Mordyk

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #82 on: October 29, 2020, 12:18:24 AM »
No, I believe you would have to change the deciding state votes by more than 1,000,000
The popular vote is irrelevant
Aha. I understand. I was thinking about this but didn't research.   Basically the deciding states would have to be vastly off,  its irrelevant her popular vote lead in California example...
#TYH

Offline skyguy918

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #83 on: October 29, 2020, 10:14:16 AM »
No, I believe you would have to change the deciding state votes by more than 1,000,000
Not sure what you mean, but combined margin of victory in MI (~11k), WI (~23k), and PA (~44k) was less than 80k. That's 46 EV, enough to swing it.

Offline zh cohen

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #84 on: October 29, 2020, 10:54:25 AM »
Not sure what you mean, but combined margin of victory in MI (~11k), WI (~23k), and PA (~44k) was less than 80k. That's 46 EV, enough to swing it.

I think his point is that he thinks this time around the margin will be a lot bigger.

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #85 on: October 29, 2020, 12:07:53 PM »
I would like to throw all my predictions in the garbage. Trump will win by a landslide! The Yated just endorsed Trump, and this changes all the metrics of the race.

https://matzav.com/decision-time-yated-endorses-trump-for-president/

Offline Euclid

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #86 on: October 29, 2020, 12:15:10 PM »
I would like to throw all my predictions in the garbage. Trump will win by a landslide! The Yated just endorsed Trump, and this changes all the metrics of the race.

https://matzav.com/decision-time-yated-endorses-trump-for-president/
The Yated endorsed him?!? Scrape me up from the floor!

Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #87 on: October 29, 2020, 12:24:54 PM »
Not sure what you mean, but combined margin of victory in MI (~11k), WI (~23k), and PA (~44k) was less than 80k. That's 46 EV, enough to swing it.
I did not know that. I was wrong then.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #88 on: October 29, 2020, 01:29:45 PM »
It's getting easier for me to see a Trump win. FL/NC/GA/TX/IA/OH all have decent polls that show Trump leading. PA/AZ/WI/MI have a relatively small lead for Biden of under 4%, and all but MI have oddball pollsters showing a small Trump win.

What's going against Trump is mainly the much larger gap in the national polls suggesting the pro Biden trend will be stronger in the swing states, the swing state polling average being way worse for Trump that the 2016 polls (PA -3.9% vs -2.1%, AZ -1.3% vs +4%) , and  the  Biden polls have him at 50%+, which is more than HRC had and less likely to be wrong.

The real unknown is the turnout numbers. If Election Day turnout underwhelms, there is no doubt Biden will win, as EV, especially in Texas, is clearly biased D. I don't think there is a consensus on how to interpret a large overall turnout if it includes ED.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Lamppost

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #89 on: October 29, 2020, 01:59:29 PM »
It's getting easier for me to see a Trump win. FL/NC/GA/TX/IA/OH all have decent polls that show Trump leading. PA/AZ/WI/MI have a relatively small lead for Biden of under 4%, and all but MI have oddball pollsters showing a small Trump win.

What's going against Trump is mainly the much larger gap in the national polls suggesting the pro Biden trend will be stronger in the swing states, the swing state polling average being way worse for Trump that the 2016 polls (PA -3.9% vs -2.1%, AZ -1.3% vs +4%) , and  the  Biden polls have him at 50%+, which is more than HRC had and less likely to be wrong.

The real unknown is the turnout numbers. If Election Day turnout underwhelms, there is no doubt Biden will win, as EV, especially in Texas, is clearly biased D. I don't think there is a consensus on how to interpret a large overall turnout if it includes ED.

I see youre starting to hedge.  :D so that when youre wrong and Trump wins you can say that you really did say that it could happen

Offline Lamppost

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #90 on: October 29, 2020, 02:00:47 PM »
I do believe that MI will go for Biden though. I am from Detroit and was there for Sukkos. There are so many Biden signs there

Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #91 on: October 29, 2020, 02:06:42 PM »
I do believe that MI will go for Biden though. I am from Detroit and was there for Sukkos. There are so many Biden signs there
MI is probably the bluest of the swing states. It doesn't have a single poll that shows Trump winning, although in 2016 it only had 2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html#polls

Biden does have an average 8% lead compared to 3.6% for HRC, and the polls are giving him higher than 50% which is very unlikely to be wrong

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html#polls

I see youre starting to hedge.  :D so that when youre wrong and Trump wins you can say that you really did say that it could happen
Then you can quote this post where I give it about 1% chance of happening.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #92 on: October 29, 2020, 02:07:00 PM »
First this:

The Yated just endorsed Trump, and this changes all the metrics of the race.

Then this:

It's getting easier for me to see a Trump win.


Coincidence? I think not!

Offline Yo ssi

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #93 on: October 29, 2020, 07:42:09 PM »
Going around;)

I know people on this group are very pro Trump, I have also been. But after reading this I have a whole new perspective on Biden, I suggest you all take a look, there are some very good points here.
https://reasonstovotebiden.com
_    ,
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Online yelped

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #94 on: October 29, 2020, 11:28:29 PM »

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #95 on: October 29, 2020, 11:41:16 PM »
JB  -180
DT +150
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline Lurker

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #96 on: October 29, 2020, 11:43:53 PM »
JB  -180
DT +150

That's closer than they were a week ago, no?
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #97 on: October 29, 2020, 11:46:30 PM »
That's closer than they were a week ago, no?
10/21
JB -165
DT +125

10/16
JB -190
DT +155
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline Lurker

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #98 on: October 29, 2020, 11:52:18 PM »
10/21
JB -165
DT +125

10/16
JB -190
DT +155
For the record the official line is Biden -200.

ETA: not trying to contradict you here. I know the lines fluctuate all the time. I just remembered that post, and that's why I asked
That's closer than they were a week ago, no?
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 11:58:27 PM by Lurker »
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #99 on: October 30, 2020, 12:05:15 AM »
ETA: not trying to contradict you here. I know the lines fluctuate all the time. I just remembered that post, and that's why I asked
Depends on the site.
https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures

-200 was from an European site.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half