Poll

Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

Biden
41 (26.5%)
Trump
79 (51%)
Tied up in court/decided by Supreme Court
32 (20.6%)
Electoral Tie
3 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 154

Author Topic: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?  (Read 138764 times)

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #140 on: November 01, 2020, 01:53:13 PM »
Anyone who thinks only one candidate has a chance is an idiot.
The notion of being an idiot has not stopped people here before.

Online shapsam

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #141 on: November 01, 2020, 01:54:58 PM »
The two are not contradictory.
Your prediction is worthless If you say Biden will win 400 electorals but Trump still has a chance.

Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #142 on: November 01, 2020, 01:56:17 PM »
Your prediction is worthless If you say Biden will win 400 electorals but Trump still has a chance.
I guess you deserve a refund then
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Online shapsam

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #143 on: November 01, 2020, 02:01:43 PM »

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #144 on: November 01, 2020, 02:05:43 PM »
It seems some don't understand that polls and odds change daily if not hourly.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #145 on: November 01, 2020, 02:06:18 PM »
The notion of being an idiot has not stopped people here before.
No but makes them easier to spot.  :)
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #146 on: November 01, 2020, 02:10:52 PM »
You're like Nate Silver.
Let me spell it out for you. I'm 99% confident Biden will win. That leaves 1% for an off-the-charts Trump base turnout and win. I would say I'm about 50% convinced Biden will get 380+ electoral seats. 20% he gets 410+ electoral seats. 30% he wins but tighter.

« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 02:19:52 PM by PlatinumGuy »
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Online aygart

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #147 on: November 01, 2020, 02:25:11 PM »
Only 1 poll since May, and it's a known partisan hack.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html#polls

But if Trump supporters call other polls partisan hacks.....
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline good sam

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #148 on: November 02, 2020, 12:23:00 PM »
If you don't care why would you comment?
HT: DMYD

Online Kobe Bryant

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #149 on: November 02, 2020, 12:24:35 PM »



Online Kobe Bryant

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #150 on: November 02, 2020, 12:24:54 PM »



Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #151 on: November 02, 2020, 12:26:10 PM »
Is this real?
What do you mean by real? That is what they have.

The real odds are:
Biden -190
Trump +165
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline yosefsv

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #152 on: November 02, 2020, 02:13:21 PM »
According the RCP average now:

Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, and NC
He is lagging with 1% or less in: GA, AZ, FL

In PA he is lagging by 2.9% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 5.1% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)

@PlatinumGuy do you already give him more then a 1% chance?
If it benefits even just one fellow DDFer, its worth posting it.

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #153 on: November 02, 2020, 02:21:34 PM »
According the RCP average now:

Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, and NC
He is lagging with 1% or less in: GA, AZ, FL

In PA he is lagging by 2.9% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 5.1% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)

@PlatinumGuy do you already give him more then a 1% chance?
No


In 2016 the PA RCP average was 46.8-44.7 leaving 8.5% undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose. Clinton did better than her 46.8 polling average.
In 2020 the PA RCP average is 49.2-46.3 leaving 4.5%. undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.

In 2016 the WI RCP average was 46.8-40.3 leaving 12.9% undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose. Clinton was under her polling average by only 0.3%
In 2020 the WI RCP average is 50.7-44.1 leaving 5.2% undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.

In 2016 the MI RCP average was 45.4-42.0 leaving 12.6% 3rd party/undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose. Clinton did better by 1.6% than her 45.4 polling average.
In 2020 the MI RCP average is 49.8-44.7 leaving 5.5%. undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.


That's before you address the fact RCP gives equal weight to the R partisan hacks, county level data, and the fact that 2020 polls are giving Trump's base a 3% turnout advantage.




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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #154 on: November 02, 2020, 03:22:01 PM »


That's before you address the fact RCP gives equal weight to the R partisan hacks, county level data, and the fact that 2020 polls are giving Trump's base a 3% turnout advantage.





What about D partisan hacks? Do they give equal weight to them?
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #155 on: November 02, 2020, 03:28:22 PM »

First of all, yes. The RCP counts partisan pollsters on both side. But I’m unaware of any D pollster that’s a hack like Traflgar, whose data is not a poll in the traditional sense of a percentage of people who say they will vote for Trump but a secret form of analyzing the data that he won’t disclose. He always errs on the Republican side and has been wrong many times when Democrats won in 2018. It all makes sense when you see him speak on Fox News, he’s a clown RCP won’t take off because they’re in trauma from 2016 & the republicans are clinging on so their voters don’t lose hope and to stoke Trumps ego.

Could the phenomenon happen the other way? Sure. If the Republicans were on the lead, I’m sure democrats would be clinging on to the less honest partisan outliers.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline yosefsv

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #156 on: November 02, 2020, 03:33:31 PM »
But I’m unaware of any D pollster that’s as good as Traflgar, whose data is not a poll in the traditional sense and therefore was the only one to have 2016 correct!
FTFY
If it benefits even just one fellow DDFer, its worth posting it.

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #157 on: November 02, 2020, 03:37:30 PM »
It was a guess, not data. The proof is their data never errs pro Democrat and has been wrong many times in 2018
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Offline BP16

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #158 on: November 02, 2020, 03:50:32 PM »

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #159 on: November 02, 2020, 04:00:41 PM »
R's lose two court battles trying to suppress votes!!!
Count all votes!!!
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half