According the RCP average now:
Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, and NC
He is lagging with 1% or less in: GA, AZ, FL
In PA he is lagging by 2.9% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 5.1% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)
@PlatinumGuy do you already give him more then a 1% chance?
No
In 2016 the PA RCP average was 46.8-44.7 leaving 8.5% undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose.
Clinton did better than her 46.8 polling average. In 2020 the PA RCP average is 49.2-46.3 leaving 4.5%. undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.
In 2016 the WI RCP average was 46.8-40.3 leaving 12.9% undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose.
Clinton was under her polling average by only 0.3% In 2020 the WI RCP average is 50.7-44.1 leaving 5.2% undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.
In 2016 the MI RCP average was 45.4-42.0 leaving 12.6% 3rd party/undecideds. The polls never actually said Trump will lose.
Clinton did better by 1.6% than her 45.4 polling average. In 2020 the MI RCP average is 49.8-44.7 leaving 5.5%. undecided. The poll says unequivocally Trump will lose.
That's before you address the fact RCP gives equal weight to the R partisan hacks, county level data, and the fact that 2020 polls are giving Trump's base a 3% turnout advantage.