Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

[Mordyk]

Let me spell it out for you. I'm 99% confident Biden will win. That leaves 1% for an off-the-charts Trump base turnout and win. I would say I'm about 50% convinced Biden will get 380+ electoral seats. 20% he gets 410+ electoral seats. 30% he wins but tighter.

why are you so convinced? you didnt learn anything from 2016?

[PlatinumGuy]

why are you so convinced? you didnt learn anything from 2016?

I answered that above. The polls weren’t wrong in 2016.

[Lamppost]

Why dont we all just wait a day and find out instead of hashing this out forever. Nobody will agree to anyone elses opinion

[good sam]

Why dont we all just wait a day and find out instead of hashing this out forever. Nobody will agree to anyone elses opinion

If only

[YitzyS]

According to Nate Silver's model, if you give Trump Texas and Florida, his chances of winning rise from 10 percent to 34 percent. If you add Ohio and Iowa, his prospects go up to 44 percent. Add Georgia and North Carolina, it's at 55 percent. Add Arizona, it's at 65 percent.

Just saying.

[CountValentine]

According to Nate Silver's model, if you give Trump Texas and Florida, his chances of winning rise from 10 percent to 34 percent. If you add Ohio and Iowa, his prospects go up to 44 percent. Add Georgia and North Carolina, it's at 55 percent. Add Arizona, it's at 65 percent.

Just saying.

What about adding CA and NY?

[YitzyS]

What about adding CA and NY?

The map doesn't have that option (serious! There are some states that you cannot change on the projection map)

[CountValentine]

The map doesn't have that option (serious! There are some states that you cannot change on the projection map)

Only D's or R's to?

[YitzyS]

Only D's or R's to?

"Candidates can't be selected if they start off with less than a 1.5% chance of winning that state."

[yelped]

What about adding CA and NY?

You don't think there's a big chance he'll win those states again?

[CountValentine]

You don't think there's a big chance he'll win those states again?

He was making so many "what ifs" I figured to throw them in. 

[yelped]

He was making so many "what ifs" I figured to throw them in. 

I got that, but those states are very close. NY and CA are not. Though with the amount of hate directed at Trump supporters, with people losing their jobs over mouthing support for Trump, I'm surprised he even has 30% in those states.

[PlatinumGuy]

I got that, but those states are very close. NY and CA are not. Though with the amount of hate directed at Trump supporters, with people losing their jobs over mouthing support for Trump, I'm surprised he even has 30% in those states.

I get plenty of hate for being a Biden supporter. The divisiveness goes both ways but Trump is the one stoking it.

[yelped]

I get plenty of hate for being a Biden supporter. The divisiveness goes both ways but Trump is the one stoking it.

You feel like you are being silenced and at danger of losing your job? Or just jeered at from some idiots? I think that's it's crazy that America got to this, but I think this moral equivalency between the jeers of the rednecks and the authoritarian clampdown and silencing from the left is wrong.

[CountValentine]

You feel like you are being silenced and at danger of losing your job? Or just jeered at from some idiots? I think that's it's crazy that America got to this, but I think this moral equivalency between the jeers of the rednecks and the authoritarian clampdown and silencing from the left is wrong.

How about a 17 year old kid that goes to a BLM protest and ends up shooting/murdering someone. Is that jeers from a redneck?
We can go back and forth for the next year. It takes two to fight but when you have someone egging them on it doesn't take much.

[yelped]

How about a 17 year old kid that goes to a BLM protest and ends up shooting/murdering someone. Is that jeers from a redneck?
We can go back and forth for the next year. It takes two to fight but when you have someone egging them on it doesn't take much.

Ok. I agree that Trump is not the greatest moral paragon. Now that that is out of the way, can we discuss the overarching silencing of the left, as opposed to individual cases of incited rednecks?

[CountValentine]

Ok. I agree that Trump is not the greatest moral paragon. Now that that is out of the way, can we discuss the overarching silencing of the left, as opposed to individual cases of incited rednecks?

It is not his morals that is the issue here. It is him pouring fuel on the fire. As far as the left goes do you see me disagreeing?

[yelped]

It is not his morals that is the issue here. It is him pouring fuel on the fire. As far as the left goes do you see me disagreeing?

Agreed. Trump is an issue, but more importantly, he exposes the issue. We see how dangerous the left is now. Trump will be gone in a few years, but what he exposed is much more dangerous.

[yosefsv]

According the RCP average now:

Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, and NC
He is lagging with 1% or less in: GA, AZ, FL

In PA he is lagging by 2.9% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 5.1% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)

@PlatinumGuy do you already give him more then a 1% chance?

Update:
Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, NC and GA
He is lagging with 0.5% in AZ
He is lagging with 1.7% in FL

In PA he is lagging by 2.5% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 4.8% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)

[CountValentine]

Agreed. Trump is an issue, but more importantly, he exposes the issue. We see how dangerous the left is now. Trump will be gone in a few years, but what he exposed is much more dangerous.

We had a short run there. 
Not sure how dangerous the left is. I am sure you would agree the left feels SCOTUS is now dangerous.