Poll

Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

Biden
41 (26.5%)
Trump
79 (51%)
Tied up in court/decided by Supreme Court
32 (20.6%)
Electoral Tie
3 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 154

Author Topic: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?  (Read 138604 times)

Online CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #180 on: November 02, 2020, 08:37:29 PM »
Update:
Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, NC and GA
He is lagging with 0.5% in AZ
He is lagging with 1.7% in FL

In PA he is lagging by 2.5% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 4.8% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)
So Trump loses?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline yelped

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #181 on: November 02, 2020, 08:40:20 PM »
We had a short run there.  :)
Not sure how dangerous the left is. I am sure you would agree the left feels SCOTUS is now dangerous.
Why? Conservative justices just stick to the plain meaning of the law, and don't legislate from the bench. If the left wants laws passed, let them get the votes to do so in Congress, the way it's supposed to be done. Why should justices bother them? Unless they don't have the votes to get the laws they want, passed, and seek to circumvent the system and legislate from the bench.

Online CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #182 on: November 02, 2020, 08:43:02 PM »
Why? Conservative justices just stick to the plain meaning of the law, and don't legislate from the bench. If the left wants laws passed, let them get the votes to do so in Congress, the way it's supposed to be done. Why should justices bother them? Unless they don't have the votes to get the laws they want, passed, and seek to circumvent the system and legislate from the bench.
You mean like the ACA?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline yosefsv

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #183 on: November 02, 2020, 08:43:25 PM »
So Trump loses?
If the polls are 100% accurate.

But I think its fare to say that the he has more then a 1% chance to win.... and that according to the RCP averages his chances are better now then it showed a few days ago
If it benefits even just one fellow DDFer, its worth posting it.

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #184 on: November 02, 2020, 08:45:11 PM »
If the polls are 100% accurate.

But I think its fare to say that the he has more then a 1% chance to win.... and that according to the RCP averages his chances are better now then it showed a few days ago
I would put his chances at 30-35%.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline yelped

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #185 on: November 02, 2020, 08:50:54 PM »
You mean like the ACA?
You can't go against the constitution. That's what they're here for. You want to go against the constitution, then get an amendment ratified.

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #186 on: November 02, 2020, 09:05:23 PM »
You can't go against the constitution. That's what they're here for. You want to go against the constitution, then get an amendment ratified.
...and that is why the left is scared of SCOTUS. They believe it will be a political vote and not a constitutional vote. Every 5-4 vote will reinforce that belief.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #187 on: November 02, 2020, 09:10:07 PM »
I would put his chances at 30-35%.
I'll agree with you here. But 30% is about 1 out of 3. I am glad you are closer to reality than @PlatinumGuy.

@PlatinumGuy , I don't blame you, you are just repeating what the pundits are saying. I listened a lot to them in the past couple of days. Like saying that Trafalgar is not a poll because they always find Rs winning. Ye, I know nate silver and his friends are saying this. They are also saying that he was correct in 2016 just because he "guessed right". C'mon... They did a lot of polls in 2018 and were spot on! Some were within margin of error and some we spot on! And in some states they did predict that Dems will win.

Its fascinating how they won't question Quinnipiac whos guessing never worked out since 2016 and their polling is alway good for the Dems. Remember when their poll found Gillum in FL winning by 11 points? Again Trafalgars all past polls were spot on.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #188 on: November 02, 2020, 09:11:56 PM »
I would put his chances at 30-35%.
I've told numerous people the last few days that I think Trump has a 33 percent chance of winning.

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #189 on: November 02, 2020, 09:12:33 PM »
I'll agree with you here. But 30% is about 1 out of 3. I am glad you are closer to reality than @PlatinumGuy.
We have massive turnout and approval rating of 45 for Trump. You think this massive turnout is for Trump?
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #190 on: November 02, 2020, 09:13:03 PM »
I've told numerous people the last few days that I think Trump has a 33 percent chance of winning.
You can't be right so mine is 20-25%.  :P
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #191 on: November 02, 2020, 09:13:41 PM »
Update:
Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, NC and GA
He is lagging with 0.5% in AZ
He is lagging with 1.7% in FL

In PA he is lagging by 2.5% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 4.8% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)

Now let's apply the exact same methodology to Biden

State | 2016 D RCP Average|  2016 D Final | Margin | 2020 D RCP Average | 2020 D Final Assuming a similar margin difference
Texas |      38%                  |42%              | +4%   | 46.5%                      | 50.5%
PA     |      46.2%               |47.5%            | +1.3% | 49.3%                     | 50.6%
WI    |      46.8%               |46.5%            | -0.3%  | 50.7%                      | 50.4%
MI     |      45.4%              |47%               |+2.6% | 50.2%                       | 52.8%
NV    |      45.0%               |47.9%            | +2.9% | 48.6%                      | 51.5%
AZ   |      42.3%               |44.6%             | +2.3   | 47.5%                       | 49.8%
GA     |      44.4%               |45.4%            | +1.1% | 47.6%                     | 48.7%
NC     |      45.5%               |46.2%            | +0.7% | 47.2%                     | 48.7%
FL    |      46.4%               |47.4%            | +1%    | 47.7%                     | 48.7%
OH    |      42.3%               |43.2%            | +0.9% | 46%                     | 46.9%
IA    |      41.3%               |41.7%            | +0.4%    | 45.8%                     | 46.2%




I'll agree with you here. But 30% is about 1 out of 3. I am glad you are closer to reality than @PlatinumGuy.

@PlatinumGuy C'mon... They did a lot of polls in 2018 and were spot on! Some were within margin of error and some we spot on! And in some states they did predict that Dems will win.
I believe this isn't true.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #192 on: November 02, 2020, 09:16:12 PM »
Now to my results prediction.

Trump will win OH/IA/GA/NC/FL. Margins will probably be in this order... I am afraid of AZ for some reason and I would rate them that Trump will win it but not handily.

Now all he needs to get to 270 is PA. Which he will pull off. NH/NV/WI/MI are all gonna be extra credits if he manages to pull them off...

And as I mentioned in a different thread. The reason I feel good about PA is because the same polls which are now saying Biden will win FL by 5 points are saying so on PA. We know that FL is extremely close with Trump being the favorite. The same way these polls are wrong in FL they will be wrong in PA.

See you tomorrow.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #193 on: November 02, 2020, 09:18:22 PM »
Show me one poll where Traflagar is further left than the consensus? There are plenty of races the Dems won in 2018.

I don't know anything about Quinnipac. Happy to toss that one out of the equation if it helps.

I still believe Biden is more likely to win the popular vote by 15%+ than Trump is to win.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #194 on: November 02, 2020, 09:19:41 PM »
Now let's apply the exact same methodology to Biden

State | 2016 D RCP Average|  2016 D Final | Margin | 2020 D RCP Average | 2020 D Final Assuming a similar margin difference
Texas |      38%                  |42%              | +4%   | 46.5%                      | 50.5%
PA     |      46.2%               |47.5%            | +1.3% | 49.3%                     | 50.6%
WI    |      46.8%               |46.5%            | -0.3%  | 50.7%                      | 50.4%
MI     |      45.4%              |47%               |+2.6% | 50.2%                       | 52.8%
NV    |      45.0%               |47.9%            | +2.9% | 48.6%                      | 51.5%
AZ   |      42.3%               |44.6%             | +2.3   | 47.5%                       | 49.8%
GA     |      44.4%               |45.4%            | +1.1% | 47.6%                     | 48.7%
NC     |      45.5%               |46.2%            | +0.7% | 47.2%                     | 48.7%
FL    |      46.4%               |47.4%            | +1%    | 47.7%                     | 48.7%
OH    |      42.3%               |43.2%            | +0.9% | 46%                     | 46.9%
IA    |      41.3%               |41.7%            | +0.4%    | 45.8%                     | 46.2%



I believe this isn't true.
Just wanted to be moser moda'ah that my like on your post is not because I agree with your content, but because I appreciate the effort you put into the post.

Offline yosefsv

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #195 on: November 02, 2020, 09:20:37 PM »
Now let's apply the exact same methodology to Biden
So you want to prove that Biden could win? we know that.
If it benefits even just one fellow DDFer, its worth posting it.

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #196 on: November 02, 2020, 09:21:49 PM »
It can be said that the margin of error since last time should be adjusted relative to accentuation of hatred from many of these media companies and the additional loss of their credibility since four years ago.

Offline yesitsme

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #197 on: November 02, 2020, 09:22:01 PM »
Just wanted to be moser moda'ah that my like on your post is not because I agree with your content, but because I appreciate the effort you put into the post.
Wow I wish you would be marking my daughters report card

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #198 on: November 02, 2020, 09:22:34 PM »
moser moda'ah
translates as "make a public proclamation"

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #199 on: November 02, 2020, 09:24:55 PM »
...and that is why the left is scared of SCOTUS. They believe it will be a political vote and not a constitutional vote. Every 5-4 vote will reinforce that belief.
Ok. I can't help with their unfounded beliefs. They are the ones who believe in legislating from the bench to further their agenda. If they're comfortable with that, why would they take issue with a justice who at least says they're not going to do that and stick to the letter of the law.