Update:
Trump is ahead in: IA, TX, OH, NC and GA
He is lagging with 0.5% in AZ
He is lagging with 1.7% in FL
In PA he is lagging by 2.5% (in 2016 he won with 2.6% above the polls)
In WI he is lagging by 6.6% (in 2016 he won with 7.2% above the polls)
In MI he is lagging by 4.8% (in 2016 he won with 3.7% above the polls)
Now let's apply the exact same methodology to Biden
State | 2016 D RCP Average| 2016 D Final | Margin | 2020 D RCP Average | 2020 D Final Assuming a similar margin difference
Texas | 38% |42% | +4% | 46.5% | 50.5%
PA | 46.2% |47.5% | +1.3% | 49.3% | 50.6%
WI | 46.8% |46.5% | -0.3% | 50.7% | 50.4%
MI | 45.4% |47% |+2.6% | 50.2% | 52.8%
NV | 45.0% |47.9% | +2.9% | 48.6% | 51.5%
AZ | 42.3% |44.6% | +2.3 | 47.5% | 49.8%
GA | 44.4% |45.4% | +1.1% | 47.6% | 48.7%
NC | 45.5% |46.2% | +0.7% | 47.2% | 48.7%
FL | 46.4% |47.4% | +1% | 47.7% | 48.7%
OH | 42.3% |43.2% | +0.9% | 46% | 46.9%
IA | 41.3% |41.7% | +0.4% | 45.8% | 46.2%
I'll agree with you here. But 30% is about 1 out of 3. I am glad you are closer to reality than @PlatinumGuy.
@PlatinumGuy C'mon... They did a lot of polls in 2018 and were spot on! Some were within margin of error and some we spot on! And in some states they did predict that Dems will win.
I believe this isn't true.