Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

[ilherman]

Show me one poll where Traflagar is further left than the consensus? There are plenty of races the Dems won in 2018.

I don't know anything about Quinnipac. Happy to toss that one out of the equation if it helps.

I still believe Biden is more likely to win the popular vote by 15%+ than Trump is to win.

I am in a rush now but Testers race in Montana. Trafalgar said that he will win. Rs really wanted to win that seat. And had a shot at it. There are more which I will look up later

[PlatinumGuy]

The reason I feel good about PA is because the same polls which are now saying Biden will win FL by 5 points are saying so on PA. We know that FL is extremely close with Trump being the favorite. The same way these polls are wrong in FL they will be wrong in PA.

Rasmussen     Trump FL 47-48 PA 47-50
ABC News               FL 50-48  PA 44-51

Just wanted to be moser moda'ah that my like on your post is not because I agree with your content, but because I appreciate the effort you put into the post.

Is my quarantine showing?

[CountValentine]

Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
Joe Biden      -190   
Donald Trump   +165   

This has held steady.

[CountValentine]

Ok. I can't help with their unfounded beliefs. They are the ones who believe in legislating from the bench to further their agenda. If they're comfortable with that, why would they take issue with a justice who at least says they're not going to do that and stick to the letter of the law.

You call their beliefs unfounded. I would love to agree with you but votes along party lines proves their point if it keeps happening.

[yelped]

You call their beliefs unfounded. I would love to agree with you but votes along party lines proves their point if it keeps happening.

Ok.

[PlatinumGuy]

I am in a rush now but Testers race in Montana. Trafalgar said that he will win. Rs really wanted to win that seat. And had a shot at it. There are more which I will look up later

There wasn't a single pollster than called the seat republican
Trafalgar gave D/Tester the smallest lead of any poll (1%), and was wrong when Tester won by 3%.

He always errs pro Republican and not once errs pro Democrat. It's because he's simply guessing a little bit to the right. He's a complete clown.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mt/montana_senate_rosendale_vs_tester-6306.html

[YitzyS]

Trafalgar's a complete clown.

He does look like a clown a little.

[PlatinumGuy]

He does look like a clown a little.

Yeah, that's part of what made me say it.

[shapsam]

Your prediction is worthless If you say Biden will win 400 electorals but Trump still has a chance.

https://twitter.com/Zigmanfreud/status/1323453977149669376

[PlatinumGuy]

Nate Silvers models are manipulated to give Trump an 11% chance. I posted the data calling him out on it.

[CountValentine]

Nate Silvers models are manipulated to give Trump an 11% chance. I posted the data calling him out on it.

You are going to be the go to guy!

[PlatinumGuy]

You are going to be the go to guy!

Lol, thanks.

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1323468628789002242?s=21

RCP is also titling it pro Trump to cover their @$$ on the off chance turnout renders all the polls are wrong.

[yelped]

Mickey Mouse.

[YitzyS]

Question for @PlatinumGuy - theoretically, if we learn shortly after polls close on the east coast that Trump won Florida, would you adjust the odds you gave him for winning the election, or would you still assert that he has almost no chance of winning?

[ilherman]

There wasn't a single pollster than called the seat republican
Trafalgar gave D/Tester the smallest lead of any poll (1%), and was wrong when Tester won by 3%.

He always errs pro Republican and not once errs pro Democrat. It's because he's simply guessing a little bit to the right. He's a complete clown.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mt/montana_senate_rosendale_vs_tester-6306.html

So he was within the margin of error. That's still considered accurate in the polling world. You know that... Others were tester + 9....

[yossig]

So, what if Trump does win??

@PlatinumGuy I wonder how you deal with stress...

[PlatinumGuy]

Question for @PlatinumGuy - theoretically, if we learn shortly after polls close on the east coast that Trump won Florida, would you adjust the odds you gave him for winning the election, or would you still assert that he has almost no chance of winning?

We'll probably know NC before we know FL. I would go up to 10-20% I guess if he does win Florida. The turning point is definitely PA, then I'd give him 70%. If he loses NC he's probably toast even if he wins FL & PA though.

So he was within the margin of error. That's still considered accurate in the polling world. You know that... Others were tester + 9....

I didn't say he's always wrong, I said he's always just +3-5 Republican, and he's always wrong when the final results are left of the consensus.

So, what if Trump does win??

@PlatinumGuy I wonder how you deal with stress...

This is not at all what stresses me out, but walks/beach/wine/cigars

[ilherman]

Rasmussen     Trump FL 47-48 PA 47-50
ABC News               FL 50-48  PA 44-51
Is my quarantine showing?

Quinnipiac, Marist, and Monmouth, all A+ pollsters have bidens lead in FL and PA almost identical. Within a point or two. And there are more pollsters with the same idea but I'm going even with the so called A+ pollsters.

[Kobe Bryant]

According to Nate Silver's model, if you give Trump Texas and Florida, his chances of winning rise from 10 percent to 34 percent. If you add Ohio and Iowa, his prospects go up to 44 percent. Add Georgia and North Carolina, it's at 55 percent. Add Arizona, it's at 65 percent.

Just saying.

And how about if you add Pennsylvania?