Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

[YitzyS]

And how about if you add Pennsylvania?

Try it yourself: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

[CountValentine]

100% sweep for Biden in New Hampshire voting. Not looking good for Trump.

[PlatinumGuy]

100% sweep for Biden in New Hampshire voting. Not looking good for Trump.

And none less than a registered Republican.

https://twitter.com/timegoesaway/status/1323493589897351168?s=21

[ah giten]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1323355837126029314

[PlatinumGuy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1323355837126029314

https://twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1323355837126029314?s=20


Very hard to believe that people who didn't vote in 2016 are standing out in the cold now. (A possible explanation is that they're not from PA but from deep blue states)

21% non-republican makes sense.

[good sam]

100% sweep for Biden in New Hampshire voting. Not looking good for Trump.

What does this mean?

[justaregularguy]

What does this mean?

it means 1 person voted and he voted for biden. so so far its 100% for biden. its a joke.

[PlatinumGuy]

What does this mean?

The first voter in NH Election Day says he voted for Biden.

[ah giten]

[tweet]1323355837126029314[/tweet]?s=20


Very hard to believe that people who didn't vote in 2016 are standing out in the cold now. (A possible explanation is that they're not from PA but from deep blue states)

21% non-republican makes sense.

read all her posts? she put up stats like these in a few swing states.
If all is true, does Trump stand a chance?

[justaregularguy]

read all her posts? she put up stats like these in a few swing states.
If all is true, does Trump stand a chance?

when you say does he have a chance you make it sound like the stats make it harder for him to win so not sure what ur asking.

[ah giten]

when you say does he have a chance you make it sound like the stats make it harder for him to win so not sure what ur asking.

Before posting this, he didn't stand a chance, question should be, does he stand a chance now?

[ah giten]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We are expecting HUGE turnout on Election Day, and data from <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@realDonaldTrump</a>’s rally in Macomb backs it up!<br><br> 11,194 signups<br><br> 48.2% NOT Republican<br><br> 32.2% didn’t vote in 2016<br><br> 74.1% have NOT voted yet in 2020<br><br>Thank you, MICHIGAN!</p>— Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) <a href="https://twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1322971386294525959?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 1, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[good sam]

Lol she is thanking the states for their statistics

[PlatinumGuy]

read all her posts? she put up stats like these in a few swing states.
If all is true, does Trump stand a chance?

Never heard of her. But it is proving there's a class of voter who didn't vote in 2016 and is enthusiastic about voting Trump on election day 2020. That's great news for Trump but the question remains if it's a few thousand outliers or a trend - he needs a few million of them to counter D turnout. 

[ah giten]

Another 43k here.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1322726029111234560

[PlatinumGuy]

Another 43k here.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1322726029111234560

Yeah, these number will never add up - at most you'll hit a million when he needs 10. The question is how indicative it is of the broader trend. Who are these 20-30% of people who are enthusiastic enough to show up at a rally but didn't vote in 2016? My guess is that they are mostly new young voters, people who weren't able to vote in 2016 for legal reasons, and people who won't vote in 2020 either (living out of state?). Those won't help him enough. If it really is a newly mobilized base, then maybe he'll buck the polls and win, but I doubt it - there is still massive D turnout to counteract. If her stats are true, I would move my personal conviction level from 1% to 5%

[ah giten]

Yeah, these number will never add up - at most you'll hit a million when he needs 10. The question is how indicative it is of the broader trend. Who are these 20-30% of people who are enthusiastic enough to show up at a rally but didn't vote in 2016? My guess is that they are mostly new young voters, people who weren't able to vote in 2016 for legal reasons, and people who won't vote in 2020 either (living out of state?). Those won't help him enough. If it really is a newly mobilized base, then maybe he'll buck the polls and win, but I doubt it - there is still massive D turnout to counteract. If her stats are true, I would move my personal conviction level from 1% to 5%

Looks like theses rallies were not just rallies but a major signup drive, and to see where he stands.
getting 10, 20, and as much as 40k signups per rally is a pretty good tactic.
Time will tell.

[PlatinumGuy]

Looks like theses rallies were not just rallies but a major signup drive, and to see where he stands.
getting 10, 20, and as much as 40k signups per rally is a pretty good tactic.
Time will tell.

He did thank you rallies even after he won in 2016, so I would think the primary motive is definitely for himself. Getting the signups is smart, the question is if they're doing a good job of mobilizing them. You have 40k that wanna come to a rally, can you get them to call friends? The democrats seem to have a lead with the gruntwork, especially in TX where Beto is running it.

The bigger question is if the rallies are doing him more harm with covid related voter opinion than any benefit.

[PlatinumGuy]

Btw - I’m sure the campaign has more data. They should have a far better understanding of who these new voters are. The question is if they’re not releasing it bc it’s not good or bc they don’t want the DNC to target the same demo

[ah giten]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1323330666763743232.html

 Pres. Trump will head to Kenosha later today.
 
 In Wisconsin, weeks ago the partisan makeup of the electorate was D +12.3 - today it’s D +5.9.
 
 Going into Election Day in ‘16, the gap was D +9.6.
 
 Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 100k net votes.   Nevada?
 
 Democrats jumped out to a D +27.3 advantage during AB only voting. Today it’s D +5.
 
 Flashback: going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +7.9.
 
 President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 50k net votes.   Like 2016, Pres. Trump will end the day in Michigan.
 
 Congrats: Democrats have banked their high propensity voters. We have nearly 2 million voters left.
 
 Pres. Trump’s E Day margin needs to be 350k - we project an Election Day votes cast margin of 400k+ for Pres. Trump.   Look, it’s pretty simple - if the voters that we KNOW are still out there for Election Day show up ON Election Day, President Trump has four more years at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.