Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

[ilherman]

I found a link! Now gotta figure out where they are scrapping info from. But the numbers are terrible for the dems. The Republicans had a 150k turnout advantage in 2016 by the end of the day. It's at 130k now. And growing.

Broward County which is solidly dem has almost the same R turnout today as Dem.

https://projectsunburst.com/index.php?county=Broward

[YitzyS]

Started a poll: https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=120946.msg2348863#msg2348863

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323694620224720897?s=20

In the 2016 Florida Elections, there were 3,651,552 votes from Registered Democrats, and 3,700,284 votes from Registered Republicans, and 2,240,164 from NPA/3rd party 

Trump got 4,617,886 vs 4,504,975 for Clinton


https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2017/01/17/exclusive-first-cut-at-2016-turnout-rates-in-florida-by-party-and-raceethnicity/


Most notable IMO is that R turnout is growing at a higher pace than D turnout. This is great for Trump but inconclusive.

If there is no data from Miami yet that alone can probably change the dynamics.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323702891073425408?s=20

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609?s=20

[yossig]

[CountValentine]

Please move the pointer down one.

[ilherman]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323694620224720897?s=20

In the 2016 Florida Elections, there were 3,651,552 votes from Registered Democrats, and 3,700,284 votes from Registered Republicans, and 2,240,164 from NPA/3rd party 

Trump got 4,617,886 vs 4,504,975 for Clinton


https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2017/01/17/exclusive-first-cut-at-2016-turnout-rates-in-florida-by-party-and-raceethnicity/


Most notable IMO is that R turnout is growing at a higher pace than D turnout. This is great for Trump but inconclusive.

If there is no data from Miami yet that alone can probably change the dynamics.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323702891073425408?s=20

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609?s=20

So with all this are you at least giving Trump a 5% chance of winning rather than 1%?.....

Regarding Miami Dade. When the numbers come in it will likely help the Republicans. Broward which is the strongest D  place had dems only doing a little better than R today, קל וחומר Miami which has been trending bad for Biden this season will be bad on ED

[CountValentine]

Those are some decent odds for Trump.

Nominee to Win the Popular Vote
Joe Biden      -900   
Donald Trump   +600   

[PlatinumGuy]

So with all this are you at least giving Trump a 5% chance of winning rather than 1%?.....

Regarding Miami Dade. When the numbers come in it will likely help the Republicans. Broward which is the strongest D  place had dems only doing a little better than R today, קל וחומר Miami which has been trending bad for Biden this season will be bad on ED

You're right, Miami came in with a very small lead for Biden

https://twitter.com/DeFede/status/1323704825679278080?s=20

It doesn't really change my perception... Even if all R vote Trump and all D votes Biden, he's likely to win at least 60% of NPA/3rd party. Not to mention more republicans voting Biden (10% in a poll I posted elsewhere) than Democrats voting Trump.

We knew all along Florida will be close.

[AsherO]

Those are some decent odds for Trump.

Nominee to Win the Popular Vote
Joe Biden      -900   
Donald Trump   +600   

Oh wow. I still find it hard to believe trump will win the popular vote, though with turnout high (I think, no data) in blue states, even if he wins the popular vote he could still lose the electoral vote.

[CountValentine]

We knew all along Florida will be close.

You still giving FL to Biden? Your reputation is on the line!!!

[CountValentine]

Oh wow. I still find it hard to believe trump will win the popular vote, though with turnout high (I think, no data) in blue states, even if he wins the popular vote he could still lose the electoral vote.

I like to believe the polls because they favor Biden. In all honest if there was a chance for the polls to be in a different world this election would be it.

[PlatinumGuy]

You still giving FL to Biden? Your reputation is on the line!!!

Yes. The Republican turnout is maybe 1-2% advantage. It will be decided by the 20%+ independents. I trust the polls for that sub group. My only hesitation is by enthusiasm appearing to be higher amongst republicans.

Oh wow. I still find it hard to believe trump will win the popular vote, though with turnout high (I think, no data) in blue states, even if he wins the popular vote he could still lose the electoral vote.

The likelihood of Trump winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college is less than Biden winning the popular vote by 25%

[AsherO]

The likelihood of Trump winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college is less than Biden winning the popular vote by 25%

I haven’t seen the over/under on Biden >25%, but my guess is the gamblers see it as less likely than you do.

[PlatinumGuy]

I haven’t seen the over/under on Biden >25%, but my guess is the gamblers see it as less likely than you do.

I'd be surprised if you find a single gambler who believes Trump will win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.

[ilherman]

You're right, Miami came in with a very small lead for Biden

https://twitter.com/DeFede/status/1323704825679278080?s=20

It doesn't really change my perception... Even if all R vote Trump and all D votes Biden, he's likely to win at least 60% of NPA/3rd party. Not to mention more republicans voting Biden (10% in a poll I posted elsewhere) than Democrats voting Trump.

We knew all along Florida will be close.

Check out Nate Silver on Twitter. He said all along that you can't interpretate party data and you need to wait for actual results is now saying he is starting to fall in to this rabbit hole.... He also is saying that the polls regarding NPAs are all over the place and its not a sure thing at all that Biden will carry them

[PlatinumGuy]

Check out Nate Silver on Twitter. He said all along that you can't interpretate party data and you need to wait for actual results is now saying he is starting to fall in to this rabbit hole.... He also is saying that the polls regarding NPAs are all over the place and its not a sure thing at all that Biden will carry them

Nate Silver is biased towards Trump because he's afraid of repeating his 2016 mistake. I've posted that elsewhere. I take anything he says with a grain of salt. My personal perception is to the left of the consensus.

[BP16]

You're right, Miami came in with a very small lead for Biden

https://twitter.com/DeFede/status/1323704825679278080?s=20

It doesn't really change my perception... Even if all R vote Trump and all D votes Biden, he's likely to win at least 60% of NPA/3rd party. Not to mention more republicans voting Biden (10% in a poll I posted elsewhere) than Democrats voting Trump.

We knew all along Florida will be close.

Republicans pollsters dont believe that, and based on Trumps rallies in the past few weeks lots of registered D voters showed up to support Trump. so you will have to stay patient like everybody else and wait till the polls close. 

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323716736257003528?s=21

Republicans pollsters dont believe that, and based on Trumps rallies in the past few weeks lots of registered D voters showed up to support Trump. so you will have to stay patient like everybody else and wait till the polls close. 

Show me data showing any registered D's showing up at Trump rallies?

I've actually thought it was notable the RNC lady was citing non-Republicans but didn't mention any registered D, suggesting there aren't many

[BP16]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323716736257003528?s=21
Show me data showing any registered D's showing up at Trump rallies?

I've actually thought it was notable the RNC lady was citing non-Republicans but didn't mention any registered D, suggesting there aren't many

What Data a CNN poll from the Trump rallies? its one of the people by the Trump rallies that did the asking you can believe it or not.

[avromie7]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323716736257003528?s=21

The overall R margin is still increasing.