Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

[Lurker]

The whole "D+/R+" spin is ridiculous and meaningless, especially when between 20-40% of your voters are independent.

[PlatinumGuy]

The whole "D+/R+" spin is ridiculous and meaningless, especially when between 20-40% of your voters are independent.

I agree.

[PlatinumGuy]

What Data a CNN poll from the Trump rallies? its one of the people by the Trump rallies that did the asking you can believe it or not.

What?

[yuneeq]

Nate Silver is biased towards Trump because he's afraid of repeating his 2016 mistake.

What 2016 mistake? He went against consensus and gave Trump a real chance to win in 2016, repeatedly stating that Trump had a real path to victory in the way it turned out.

[PlatinumGuy]

What 2016 mistake? He went against consensus and gave Trump a real chance to win in 2016, repeatedly stating that Trump had a real path to victory in the way it turned out.

I mean the perception of a mistake by not calling it for Trump. The polls were actually right as posted elsewhere.

[yosefsv]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323716736257003528?s=21

One thing that does seem clear in the Election Day numbers is that the GOP vote came out early but the vote is becoming less Republican (and more indie) over the course of the day.
Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) · Twitter

Is it because the Trump voters actually work for a living and vote before and after work?

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/noelrock/status/1323710230245593091?s=21

While we're busy trying to interpret data in Florida, PA & TX are underperforming...

One thing that does seem clear in the Election Day numbers is that the GOP vote came out early but the vote is becoming less Republican (and more indie) over the course of the day.
Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) · Twitter

Is it because the Trump voters actually work for a living and vote before and after work?

Yeah because College Educated voters who vote Biden by a huge margin don't have a job.

[AsherO]

Is it because the Trump voters actually work for a living and vote before and after work?

I wondered the same thing.

[AsherO]

Yeah because College Educated voters who vote Biden by a huge margin don't have a job.

Or they voted early?

ETA: it’s also possible they’re likelier to have jobs that either encourage them to leave work to vote, or jobs that are flexible so that they can leave to vote at whim.

[yuneeq]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1323716736257003528?s=21

The famous split between those that work and those that don't.

[ilherman]

The whole "D+/R+" spin is ridiculous and meaningless, especially when between 20-40% of your voters are independent.

Obviously no one knows how Ind will vote. But comparing the data and final outcome to 2016/2018 does not look great for dems.

[PlatinumGuy]

The famous split between those that work and those that don't.

I have no patience to look for the data but pretty confident if you find breakdown of voters with high income it will be pro D by a large margin. The same for unusually low income will make the average D income low.

[avromie7]

I have no patience to look for the data but pretty confident if you find breakdown of voters with high income it will be pro D by a large margin. The same for unusually low income will make the average D income low.

Yes, welfare queens will overwhelmingly vote D. What is your point?

[Lurker]

Obviously no one knows how Ind will vote. But comparing the data and final outcome to 2016/2018 does not look great for dems.

If the registration stayed the same, there would be something to compare. Between 2008 and 2020, here's how registration has changed:

Dem
2008: 43.62%
2020: 39.66%

Rep
2008: 30.72%
2020: 28.87%

Ind
2008: 23.98%
2020: 29.09%

We're not talking an apples-to-apples comparison, especially when Ind now includes a much larger percentage of people who have previously voted Dem. It's useless spin.

[stv17]

Important thing to remember....A lot of these twitter reports of low turnout/disappointing numbers etc. are not necessarily true, this is a tool that is used by both parties to encourage their base to come out and vote.

[Lurker]

Yes, welfare queens will overwhelmingly vote D. What is your point?

He said that

The same for unusually low income will make the average D income low.

His point is that R's are in the middle, but saying that D's don't work when D voters include a very significant chuck of above-average earners is incorrect.

[ilherman]

Does anyone have a link for Maricopa County?

Would love to see data coming out how party registration is voting.

[ilherman]

Here ya go AZ.

Anyone who is opening this can report results from Maricopa?

[KSMH]

Ye like I posted yesterday. Data coming out from FL is pointing to a Trump victory. If he manages to replicate it in PA / AZ then it's game over for Biden.

BTW, I keep on seeing all these data from local Florida guys posting on Twitter. Does anyone have the link where I can see the live data coming in? (showing turnouts by party registration)

I've been searching for the past hour and can't find it!

Thats what we need, not these useless tweets.

Its possible county by county and ppl put it together,

Try this,
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1wg9gjwErFjhMb-IlbnuA5c50rPKtqYXaUGm-iTJMr-E/htmlview?pru=AAABdbQJlx4*b61wNWa_YKtYj11xLHbuWQ

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/jarrettrenshaw/status/1323714556619821061?s=21

A county HRC won by 20%