Poll

Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

Biden
41 (26.5%)
Trump
79 (51%)
Tied up in court/decided by Supreme Court
32 (20.6%)
Electoral Tie
3 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 154

Author Topic: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?  (Read 138763 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #320 on: November 03, 2020, 04:32:53 PM »
To answer the thread title question, I think the country is actually winning. Setting records for voter turnout shows unprecedented engagement on the part of the average American. You may not like who they are listening to or the conclusions they are drawing, but engagement is a huge first step. You can't convince someone of your position if they aren't participating in the conversation.
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Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #321 on: November 03, 2020, 04:35:50 PM »
Anyone see the video from Trump today? Does he look down and nervous? (which might indicate him getting bad reports from the fields) or just tired from doing 5 rallies a day?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWXvIlivqY
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #322 on: November 03, 2020, 04:38:29 PM »
Anyone see the video from Trump today? Does he look down and nervous? (which might indicate him getting bad reports from the fields) or just tired from doing 5 rallies a day?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWXvIlivqY

Body language is definitely not optimistic.
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Offline BP16

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #323 on: November 03, 2020, 04:40:22 PM »
Anyone see the video from Trump today? Does he look down and nervous? (which might indicate him getting bad reports from the fields) or just tired from doing 5 rallies a day?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWXvIlivqY
I would say both, but I dont think from bad reports more from exhausted from all these rallies in the last week.

Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #324 on: November 03, 2020, 04:49:10 PM »
Here ya go AZ.

Anyone who is opening this can report results from Maricopa?
Sorry, forgot to post the link.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1G6HVI57N1QOFcYGeWj42odw5PcRkcqFwNlqp7sIe1k0/htmlview#gid=0
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #325 on: November 03, 2020, 04:51:16 PM »
Anyone see the video from Trump today? Does he look down and nervous? (which might indicate him getting bad reports from the fields) or just tired from doing 5 rallies a day?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWXvIlivqY

This from the person telling us not to read anything into the videos of Biden's many "senior moments"

Offline Mordyk

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #326 on: November 03, 2020, 04:53:49 PM »
Anyone see the video from Trump today? Does he look down and nervous? (which might indicate him getting bad reports from the fields) or just tired from doing 5 rallies a day?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWXvIlivqY
I say both.   And I hope to be able to do 5 rallies in one day at that age

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #327 on: November 03, 2020, 05:04:34 PM »
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323728542681751555?s=21



You can probably learn a lot from FL data, but you’d need to study it more comprehensively  - D VS R compared to how their counties & demographics voted in 2016. A 90% R turnout would mean a lot in a county where R votes correlated to registered republicans. Nobody is wasting their time on this because it’s only a few hours advantage



To answer the thread title question, I think the country is actually winning. Setting records for voter turnout shows unprecedented engagement on the part of the average American. You may not like who they are listening to or the conclusions they are drawing, but engagement is a huge first step. You can't convince someone of your position if they aren't participating in the conversation.
The problem is it’s coming from increased divisiveness with each side convinced the other side would be destructive

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #328 on: November 03, 2020, 05:15:29 PM »
Yeah because College Educated voters who vote Biden by a huge margin don't have a job.

They are MUCH more likely to be working from home due to COVID.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline avromie7

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #329 on: November 03, 2020, 05:20:03 PM »
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323728542681751555?s=21
This just means a little better turnout than 2016 for Ds in a heavily D county.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #330 on: November 03, 2020, 05:52:55 PM »
Sorry, forgot to post the link.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/1G6HVI57N1QOFcYGeWj42odw5PcRkcqFwNlqp7sIe1k0/htmlview#gid=0
It seems that the republicans have a smaller advantage than 2018. And in 2018 they lost. Looks bad for the GOP.

Am I missing something?
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #331 on: November 03, 2020, 05:55:35 PM »
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323725293106987008?s=21


My personal conviction now is Trump has a 40% chance in Florida. Not because the 200k votes are tipping the balance, but because it's proof Republican turnout is as high as democrat, and Trump has a lot of new voters. It's going to be decided more on the opinions of the independents than the turnout of either base.
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Offline yossig

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #332 on: November 03, 2020, 06:02:08 PM »
My personal conviction now is Trump has a 40% chance in Florida. Not because the 200k votes are tipping the balance, but because it's proof Republican turnout is as high as democrat, and Trump has a lot of new voters. It's going to be decided more on the opinions of the independents than the turnout of either base.
definitely a step in the right direction, keep going... :)

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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #334 on: November 03, 2020, 06:09:37 PM »
Visibly Jewish

Offline Lurker

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Offline Mordyk

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #336 on: November 03, 2020, 06:12:38 PM »
Just wait til it hit 120%.
LOL.  I think by 150% there might be some questions asked... :D
#TYH

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #337 on: November 03, 2020, 06:15:08 PM »
Just wait til it hit 120%.
Good one. I don't know how these things work - can they be registered at home but voting by college, skewing the local turnout?
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Offline zh cohen

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #338 on: November 03, 2020, 06:28:10 PM »
because it's proof Republican turnout is as high as democrat, and Trump has a lot of new voters.

How does this change your prediction for other states? One of the arguments I've seen over the past weeks (don't remember if it was from you) is that that Trump would have a hard time getting any more votes than in 2016 and would therefore not be able to counter higher Democrat turnout.

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #339 on: November 03, 2020, 06:33:36 PM »
How does this change your prediction for other states? One of the arguments I've seen over the past weeks (don't remember if it was from you) is that that Trump would have a hard time getting any more votes than in 2016 and would therefore not be able to counter higher Democrat turnout.
It's a good question but I think Florida is an outlier. The data coming in from other states like Texas, PA, WI, & MI isn't half as good for Trump. Maybe my bias is coming into play here.

BTW, The CNN exit polls has college educated voters up from 40% in 2016 to 45% in 2020. That's seriously bad news for Trump.
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