Poll

Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

Biden
41 (26.5%)
Trump
79 (51%)
Tied up in court/decided by Supreme Court
32 (20.6%)
Electoral Tie
3 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 154

Author Topic: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?  (Read 138650 times)

Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #860 on: November 04, 2020, 03:35:28 AM »
Unless Collins and Romney caucus with the D's as per their record
Well I don't care about those kind of votes. Im talking about confirming Judicial nominees, packing the supreme court, adding senate seats etc.... We are safe there.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline Boruch Parnes

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #861 on: November 04, 2020, 03:36:34 AM »
NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 3:30 AM
Some Wisconsin math: Trump leads by 119,000 votes there currently. But there are reported 211,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted in Milwaukee County, which are likely to be very blue. If Biden won them 3:1, it would make the state very close.

Beyond that, what’s outstanding is a bit less clear. The city of Green Bay has yet to report results, which should be blue-ish but it’s certainly no Madison or Milwaukee.
in other states biden isnt winning 3:1 absentee

Offline ShimshonK

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #862 on: November 04, 2020, 03:41:30 AM »
in other states biden isnt winning 3:1 absentee
Well, that doesn't really mean anything. It's all specific to the location obviously.

From 2016:
Milwaukee County
Clinton 66.4%   
Trump 29.0%

Offline Boruch Parnes

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #863 on: November 04, 2020, 03:44:09 AM »
Well, that doesn't really mean anything. It's all specific to the location obviously.

From 2016:
Milwaukee County
Clinton 66.4%   
Trump 29.0%
isnt that closer to 2:1  for every 2 clinton votes 1 trump vote

Offline ShimshonK

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #864 on: November 04, 2020, 03:45:32 AM »
isnt that closer to 2:1  for every 2 clinton votes 1 trump vote
Yup. Was just pointing out that you need to look at county specific data, not general absentee averages.
But after looking at those numbers, I'd think Trump can likely maintain his edge in WI.

Offline ShimshonK

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #865 on: November 04, 2020, 03:58:44 AM »
So, not expecting anything more called until later today. Looking through 4 different sites, they all have Trump with 213 electorates. They vary when it comes to Biden.
AP and Fox: 238 - everything called besides: AK, NV, WI, MI, PA, NC, GA, and 1 of ME
ABC: 221 - same as AP and Fox, except didn't yet call for Biden: HI, AZ, and 2 more of ME (3 total uncalled from ME)
CNN: 220 - same as ABC, except didn't yet call for Biden: 1 more in ME (so all 4 uncalled in ME)

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #866 on: November 04, 2020, 04:01:23 AM »
RCP adjusted GA to show only 85% counted. +2.2% Trump. I think they don’t really know how many ballots left. Luckily nobody actually published a headline ‘more votes suddenly appear in GA’


What ever happen to that?
Tucker ended up saying it’s about Hunter’s personal life and he doesn’t want to hurt him. In the beginning he claimed it’s a massive expose.

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Online AsherO

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #868 on: November 04, 2020, 04:10:31 AM »
That is the most accurate assessment for this election, pity it took everyone so long to realize it

Its 50/50

It’s 50/50 because nobody alive today has ever seen such turnout, add the business with mail in ballots and the situation is unprecedented. Nobody has a handle on what to expect from the remaining uncounted ballots in swing states.
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Offline ShimshonK

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Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #870 on: November 04, 2020, 04:29:06 AM »
https://twitter.com/SovernNation/status/1323909222573072384
I don't know who this guy is but it doesn't seem like WI still has 700k out.
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Offline ah giten

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #871 on: November 04, 2020, 04:29:48 AM »
[tweet]1323909222573072384[/tweet]
big, if true.

Offline zale

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #872 on: November 04, 2020, 04:33:46 AM »
Why couldn’t all votes, including most mail ballots be counted by Nov 3?

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #873 on: November 04, 2020, 04:43:38 AM »
https://twitter.com/decisiondeskhq/status/1323922315244130304?s=21
Why couldn’t all votes, including most mail ballots be counted by Nov 3?
Against the law to start counting until the polls close in some states. I guess the logic is leaked data can influence the vote
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Offline ShimshonK

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #874 on: November 04, 2020, 04:45:43 AM »
Wow, Biden did take the lead in WI. If the remaining 5% is still mostly absentee, etc. you have to think he'll maintain (and build upon) this lead.

Offline yesitsme

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Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #877 on: November 04, 2020, 05:44:53 AM »
Who remembers the ABC news poll from last week showing Biden up 17 points in Wis.....

At this point Wis looks grim for Trump and same for MI. Trump's path now will probably go thru PA and NV which just became tight.  I guess everything is on the table still but with most ballots out in Wis seem to be early vote they tend to go biden
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #878 on: November 04, 2020, 05:47:19 AM »
Nevada is mostly missing mail in ballots too. I think it’s pretty much over. 90% for Biden. May be a bunch of recounts
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Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #879 on: November 04, 2020, 05:51:05 AM »
In theory Trump can win without WI and PA if he takes GA MI NC NV.

Even winning PA wouldn't make up for losing GA and NV though. Atlanta is what this comes down to.