Poll

Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

Biden
41 (26.5%)
Trump
79 (51%)
Tied up in court/decided by Supreme Court
32 (20.6%)
Electoral Tie
3 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 154

Author Topic: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?  (Read 138611 times)

Offline Dan

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1180 on: November 04, 2020, 04:32:59 PM »
Surprised nobody listing the winners and losers is talking about the biggest loser of all: Bloomberg! Apparently he still had too much in his wallet after his debacle of a campaign, so he threw $100MM+ into helping Biden with FL and OH. So much for his vaunted data-based analytic operation!

His stupidity was rivaled only by his predecessor, Giuliani. What is it with NYC and its mayors? At least we still have our incumbent - er, never mind.
The Biden ads seemed like they outnumbered Trump ads in OH by a 50:1 margin.
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1182 on: November 04, 2020, 04:35:11 PM »
What does that put the senate at?
Not following the other remaining senate races closely, but I believe most were favored R, probably giving the R's 51 or 52 seats (1 being determined in a runoff election in January).

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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1185 on: November 04, 2020, 04:39:28 PM »
What does that put the senate at?
49D 49R NC & GA still up.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline KSMH

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1186 on: November 04, 2020, 04:41:14 PM »
From the article -
Doesnt really matter anymore, no way to prove which ballots are legitimate and which aren’t
Yeah all possible, but proves a point when some urban hubs had major turnout votes and some didn't.

Alot of ppl will say there is fraud in big cities, and its undoubtedly true, the question is at what scale and can it be proven to overturn an election.

I dont think so.
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1187 on: November 04, 2020, 04:41:20 PM »
Doesnt really matter anymore, no way to prove which ballots are legitimate and which aren’t

In 2018 an election (to the House) was thrown out because the fraud (by someone working for the Republican candidate) was greater than the margin of victory.

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1188 on: November 04, 2020, 04:41:57 PM »
They are crying like crazy. Now they know how it feels when you don't get your way.  :)
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1189 on: November 04, 2020, 04:42:02 PM »
I'm going to copy and paste a detailed explanation from Nate Silver on all the remaining states.
He lists the order of likelihood of Trump winning remaining states:
1. NC
2. GA
3. PA
4. AZ
5. NV
6. MI
7. WI

Quote
Where The Outstanding Presidential Races Stand, From Most Likely Trump Win To Least Likely Trump Win
Nate here. Stepping back into the saddle here for the rest of the day after a brief rest. I’m going to give you a rundown of how I’m currently seeing the states where we still don’t have projections, even though it might be a little redundant with what we’ve written earlier.

But here’s where the presidential race stands from most likely Trump win to least likely Trump win:

North Carolina. Trump leads by 1.4 points or about 77,000 votes, but mail ballots can arrive after Election Day in North Carolina, so perhaps 5 percent of the vote is still outstanding. The mail vote should be pretty blue in North Carolina, but is it enough to flip the state? Probably not, according to The Upshot’s needle, which gave Biden about a 15 percent chance in North Carolina before it was frozen. I’d call this one Likely Trump, although 15 percent chances aren’t zero, obviously!

Georgia. Trump leads by 78,000 votes without around 200,000 votes outstanding (there’s some uncertainty over the exact number). That seems like a tall order for Biden, but the remaining vote is expected to be very blue: mail votes from blue counties plus some Election Day votes from predominantly Black precincts in blue counties. The Upshot’s needle actually had Biden slightly favored to pull it off as of last night. We’ll know more soon. Let’s say Tossup but you could force me into Lean Biden if you told me I had to make a pick.

Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden.

Arizona. We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. What’s left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re disrupted fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be continued) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday were: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.

There’s also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. I’d assume they’ve put more work into looking into this than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you will get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, I’d say this is Likely Biden but I don’t think the state should have been called yet.

Nevada. This one’s a bit more straightforward. Biden leads by only 0.6 percent or about 7,500 votes. But what’s remaining should be pretty good for him. It’s all mail-in ballots that were either received late in the process or which are still coming in — in Nevada, mail ballots can be received by Nov. 10 provided they’re postmarked by Election Day. The mail ballots were quite blue in Nevada by party registration, much more so than in Arizona, including votes that arrived relatively late in the process. Likely Biden.

Michigan. Biden is ahead, leading by around 61,000 votes or 1.2 percentage points. His lead has been growing and given what votes are outstanding, is likely to grow further. Likely Biden.

Wisconsin. No known votes left to be counted. The Trump campaign says it will seek a recount, but recounts rarely change results, and certainly not with something on the magnitude of Biden’s 20,000-vote lead. Biden is the “apparent winner,” per ABC News.

Offline Dan

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1190 on: November 04, 2020, 04:43:01 PM »
49D 49R NC & GA still up.
Looks more like 48D 49R with GAx2 and NC still up in the air.
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1191 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:06 PM »
Rudy needs to join DDF so we can debate what "observe" means. This guy is a complete nut job!!!
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1193 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:23 PM »
49D 49R NC & GA still up.
Very likely 51 R > 49 but at this point who knows.
NC can take a week.
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1194 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:37 PM »
I'm going to copy and paste a detailed explanation from Nate Silver on all the remaining states.
He lists the order of likelihood of Trump winning remaining states:
1. NC
2. GA
3. PA
4. AZ
5. NV
6. MI
7. WI

NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 4:40 PM
Moments ago in my larger overview of the race, I noted Biden was ahead in Michigan by around 1.2 percentage points. ABC News has now projected he race, and that makes sense. Michigan may not even wind up being that close in the end.

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1195 on: November 04, 2020, 04:45:03 PM »
The implication should be that we need to get our act together and get a normal third party. If fringe wackos can disrupt our 2 party system, a legit third party can bring normalcy and diplomacy to a corrupt process. It likely won't happen, and there's no guarantee that the third party will be any less messed up than the other 2, but I'm more than ready for it to happen already.

-1

We don't have a parliamentary system where coalitions are forged. It's a binary decision and there's no place for a third party. It would only make sense if there were no parties at all, then the race would resemble the primaries (G-d spare us from that)
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1196 on: November 04, 2020, 04:46:38 PM »
How is this not election fraud?
Milwaukee is Chicago's little brother.  :)
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1197 on: November 04, 2020, 04:48:04 PM »
I'm going to copy and paste a detailed explanation from Nate Silver on all the remaining states.
He lists the order of likelihood of Trump winning remaining states:
1. NC
2. GA
3. PA
4. AZ
5. NV
6. MI
7. WI
I say at this point at least, he is pretty accurate.
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1198 on: November 04, 2020, 04:48:23 PM »
Rudy keeps crying about PA. Someone want to let this nut job know PA is not needed.
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1199 on: November 04, 2020, 04:48:27 PM »
Milwaukee is Chicago's little brother.  :)
At least someone agrees.
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