Back to Nate Silver for a moment.
This guy and his whole model are swimming in eggs now. I mean he has done way worse than 2016. In 2016 he was the outlier giving Trump a 33% chance of winning and he was a hero by some.
This time around, not only were his averages way way off (I will post some crosstabs of averages vs final soon) HE REFUSED TO ADD TRAFALGARs POLL TO HIS POLLING AVERAGE BECAUSE THE QUALITY IS TOO LOW FOR 538!!!!!!!!
Only after a week with a lot of pressure he added it.
Some poll averages vs results;
OH:
RCP:T+1 538:T+0.5 Final:T+8
IA:
RCP:T+2 538:T+1.5 Final:T+8
FL:
RCP:B+0.7 538:B+2.5 Final:T+4
WI:
RCP:B+6.7 538:B+8 Final:B+0.5
MI:
RCP:B+4.2 538:B+8 Final:B+1.5
PA:
RCP:B+1.2 538:B+5 Final:B+0.5
NV:
RCP:B+2 538:B+6 Final:B+0.5
While Trafalgar was the most accurate, Quinnipiac was by far the worst. They have a B rating on 538. They deserve a D-. Some other so called A+ pollsters like ABC/Mounmouth/NYT were very bad as well. Will 538 update their ratings to B and upgrade Trafalgar to A?
Will the media learn a lesson this time around? After 2016 they said we are not going to believe polls anymore and very quickly forgot the lesson. My guess, I don't think so.
Does anyone with a popular twitter account mind tweeting this to nate silver? Reply to the tweet below.
@Dan <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I love many things about RCP, but if you have an average and 1/3 of it consists of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage and 0% of it consists of live-caller polls, it's not going to be a very reliable average. <a href="
https://t.co/3LTQ7gEwAd">pic.twitter.com/3LTQ7gEwAd</a></p>— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1318575861357043715?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>