Poll

Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

Biden
41 (26.5%)
Trump
79 (51%)
Tied up in court/decided by Supreme Court
32 (20.6%)
Electoral Tie
3 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 154

Author Topic: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?  (Read 138618 times)

Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1320 on: November 04, 2020, 09:25:28 PM »
AZ GA PA all shaping up to be down to the wire.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1321 on: November 04, 2020, 09:26:03 PM »
Murdoch probably has insider info in Arizona.
If I was AZ I wouldn't be rushing to publish a Biden win either. Why have the wrath of Rudy Giuliani's lawsuits come down on you? Let them be busy with MI/PA/GA and AZ will report when Trump loses hope.
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Online yelped

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1322 on: November 04, 2020, 09:28:26 PM »
It’s not just ironic, it’s actual self-destruction. If he could have just swallowed his ego and shown some respect and humility for a dying/fallen war hero and cancer patient he very possibly might have won this election. AZ voters are very deliberately avenging their beloved late Senator.
That turned off many people elsewhere, too. The fact is (don't ask me for sources, please :) ), many people who voted for Trump looked away at his terrible personality, because they felt he was better than the alternative. But I would not say that they support the disgusting disrespect and disregard he has for many of our upstanding citizens.

Offline S209

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1323 on: November 04, 2020, 09:30:50 PM »
Arizona:


Doesn’t look like we will know the answer until at least 1 AM, probably not until tomorrow night. Unless GA or NV change the equation first.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Online zh cohen

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1324 on: November 04, 2020, 09:31:44 PM »
That might be a down ballot loss because of anger at Trump if that makes any sense

More likely that McSally being such a terrible candidate (at least when it comes to campaigning) dragged Trump down. She lost two consecutive winnable senate races, including one against a candidate who was on tape defending the Taliban.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1325 on: November 04, 2020, 09:34:53 PM »
Arizona:


Doesn’t look like we will know the answer until at least 1 AM, probably not until tomorrow night. Unless GA or NV change the equation first.
NV won't report today.
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Offline ShimshonK

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1326 on: November 04, 2020, 09:39:05 PM »
NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 4, 9:29 PM
As Aaron mentioned, we just got a batch of about 74,000 Maricopa County votes that split 59-41 for Trump. This narrowed Biden’s statewide lead to about 79,000 votes. To close that gap, with about 418,000 ballots left to count statewide, Trump would have to win the remaining ballots … 59-41. One silver lining for Biden, though: A fair number of those remaining 418,000 ballots are in Pima County, which is bluer then Maricopa.

Offline Yo ssi

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1327 on: November 04, 2020, 09:41:10 PM »
Is there a website where you can see all the details with counties etc.. something similar to what's shown on CNN?
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Online CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1328 on: November 04, 2020, 09:41:35 PM »
More likely that McSally being such a terrible candidate (at least when it comes to campaigning) dragged Trump down. She lost two consecutive winnable senate races, including one against a candidate who was on tape defending the Taliban.
That is a new one. Senate race dragged Trump down. If nothing else I give the kool-aid drinkers points for being creative.  :)
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline ShimshonK

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1329 on: November 04, 2020, 09:41:52 PM »
Is there a website where you can see all the details with counties etc.. something similar to what's shown on CNN?
I was able to get 2016 data by county from Politico. Not sure that's what you're looking for.

Offline ShimshonK

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1330 on: November 04, 2020, 09:43:04 PM »
Is there a website where you can see all the details with counties etc.. something similar to what's shown on CNN?
Actually, ABC has it. Check it out - https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map

Offline Yo ssi

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1331 on: November 04, 2020, 09:45:10 PM »
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Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1332 on: November 04, 2020, 09:45:38 PM »
Back to Nate Silver for a moment.

This guy and his whole model are swimming in eggs now. I mean he has done way worse than 2016. In 2016 he was the outlier giving Trump a 33% chance of winning and he was a hero by some.

This time around, not only were his averages way way off (I will post some crosstabs of averages vs final soon) HE REFUSED TO ADD TRAFALGARs POLL TO HIS POLLING AVERAGE BECAUSE THE QUALITY IS TOO LOW FOR 538!!!!!!!!

Only after a week with a lot of pressure he added it. 
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1333 on: November 04, 2020, 09:46:33 PM »
Back to Nate Silver for a moment.

This guy and his whole model are swimming in eggs now. I mean he has done way worse than 2016. In 2016 he was the outlier giving Trump a 33% chance of winning and he was a hero by some.

This time around, not only were his averages way way off (I will post some crosstabs of averages vs final soon) HE REFUSED TO ADD TRAFALGARs POLL TO HIS POLLING AVERAGE BECAUSE THE QUALITY IS TOO LOW FOR 538!!!!!!!!

Only after a week with a lot of pressure he added it.
Some poll averages vs results;

OH:
RCP:T+1  538:T+0.5   Final:T+8

IA:
RCP:T+2  538:T+1.5   Final:T+8

FL:
RCP:B+0.7   538:B+2.5  Final:T+4 

WI:
RCP:B+6.7   538:B+8    Final:B+0.5

MI:
RCP:B+4.2   538:B+8    Final:B+1.5

PA:
RCP:B+1.2   538:B+5    Final:B+0.5

NV:
RCP:B+2   538:B+6   Final:B+0.5

While Trafalgar was the most accurate, Quinnipiac was by far the worst. They have a B rating on 538. They deserve a D-. Some other so called A+ pollsters like ABC/Mounmouth/NYT were very bad as well. Will 538 update their ratings to B and upgrade Trafalgar to A?

Will the media learn a lesson this time around? After 2016 they said we are not going to believe polls anymore and very quickly forgot the lesson. My guess, I don't think so.

Does anyone with a popular twitter account mind tweeting this to nate silver? Reply to the tweet below. @Dan

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I love many things about RCP, but if you have an average and 1/3 of it consists of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage and 0% of it consists of live-caller polls, it&#39;s not going to be a very reliable average. <a href="https://t.co/3LTQ7gEwAd">pic.twitter.com/3LTQ7gEwAd</a></p>&mdash; Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1318575861357043715?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1334 on: November 04, 2020, 09:46:44 PM »
Biden got 71% of another 1800 in GA

GA hoping to publish final 00:00-03:00 tonight.

That is a new one. Senate race dragged Trump down. If nothing else I give the kool-aid drinkers points for being creative.  :)
I think it's widely accepted Kelly being a good candidate helped Biden.
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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1335 on: November 04, 2020, 09:47:24 PM »
Some poll averages vs results;
Can it be the polls are fine 90% of the time but haven't figured out how to adjust for Trump?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1336 on: November 04, 2020, 09:48:27 PM »
I think it's widely accepted Kelly being a good candidate helped Biden.
Yes he was and he honored McCain!!!
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online Traveler718

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1338 on: November 04, 2020, 09:51:07 PM »
NYT just reported that AZ will be releasing more Maricopa #s at about 1 am, followed by another batch ... tomorrow night at 9 pm!

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1339 on: November 04, 2020, 09:52:13 PM »
NYT just reported that AZ will be releasing more Maricopa #s at about 1 am, followed by another batch ... tomorrow night at 9 pm!
If I was AZ I wouldn't be rushing to publish a Biden win either. Why have the wrath of Rudy Giuliani's lawsuits come down on you? Let them be busy with MI/PA/GA and AZ will report when Trump loses hope.

Murdoch knows though.
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