Poll

Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

Biden
41 (26.5%)
Trump
79 (51%)
Tied up in court/decided by Supreme Court
32 (20.6%)
Electoral Tie
3 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 154

Author Topic: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?  (Read 138782 times)

Offline Yo ssi

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Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1341 on: November 04, 2020, 09:55:21 PM »
Biden can still lose NV/AZ/PA but win with GA & NC
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Traveler718

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1342 on: November 04, 2020, 09:55:29 PM »
Can it be the polls are fine 90% of the time but haven't figured out how to adjust for Trump?

If they were only wrong about Trump I could hear, but they were off badly on so many Senatorial races. And even if you want to say the R Senators picked up Trump's coattails (not sure you'd ever say such a thing though), but what about the House? The D's were supposed to gain 10-20 in the House, and now they're something like -5 and possibly worse as more races get called. Those races are much more local and shouldn't be as impacted by a purported Trump error factor.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1343 on: November 04, 2020, 09:56:12 PM »
They report at once, called a dump.

You can call it a dump, I call it a drip.
At this pace it’ll take another 5 days to get the AZ results.
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Offline Traveler718

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1344 on: November 04, 2020, 10:00:12 PM »


Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1345 on: November 04, 2020, 10:00:28 PM »
Trump lead in PA 186k.
800k outstanding
Biden needs 61-63%
Biden has been getting 78% of these ballots.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1346 on: November 04, 2020, 10:00:32 PM »
Can it be the polls are fine 90% of the time but haven't figured out how to adjust for Trump?
C'mon man.... They had 4 years.   I didn't ask you to figure it out. It is their business. And while Trump is indeed not the regular candidate he is not an Elephant. Shouldn't be so hard to figure out. THese pollsters were either grossly incompetent or part of the DNC looking to suppress the R vote.

Either, should earn them a D rating.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1347 on: November 04, 2020, 10:03:07 PM »
GA: Now another 6,680 votes counted, Biden wins 79.4% of them. Biden trails by 33k. Needs to win about 67% of remaining votes to pass Trump, depending on the exact number of outstanding ballots. Still trending positive for Biden.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1348 on: November 04, 2020, 10:05:08 PM »
If they were only wrong about Trump I could hear, but they were off badly on so many Senatorial races. And even if you want to say the R Senators picked up Trump's coattails (not sure you'd ever say such a thing though), but what about the House? The D's were supposed to gain 10-20 in the House, and now they're something like -5 and possibly worse as more races get called. Those races are much more local and shouldn't be as impacted by a purported Trump error factor.

There was very high turnout. Turnout is difficult to predict and factor in, especially with the unprecedented variables this year.

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1349 on: November 04, 2020, 10:06:20 PM »
Great site for election results, with an excellent record for calling races correctly. I know a few media outlets that use this site's data, and it's been highly recommended to me.

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1350 on: November 04, 2020, 10:09:41 PM »
There was very high turnout. Turnout is difficult to predict and factor in, especially with the unprecedented variables this year.

IOW, polling is difficult and useless when it's needed most.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1351 on: November 04, 2020, 10:09:54 PM »
C'mon man.... They had 4 years.   I didn't ask you to figure it out. It is their business. And while Trump is indeed not the regular candidate he is not an Elephant. Shouldn't be so hard to figure out. THese pollsters were either grossly incompetent or part of the DNC looking to suppress the R vote.

Either, should earn them a D rating.
What about 2018 when Trump wasn't running?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1352 on: November 04, 2020, 10:11:07 PM »
Everyone is trashing the polls. If you want to PUOSU I can start another thread.  :)
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline ShimshonK

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1353 on: November 04, 2020, 10:12:00 PM »
More details here
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html
Let's be real, what percentage of people here pay for their news :)
Someone start a poll.

Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1354 on: November 04, 2020, 10:14:27 PM »
I didn't see this theory anywhere but I think it's simple mate if you figured out Trumps mind by now.

If this is turning out the way its looking like it will (PA going to Biden and then the others won't help Trump anyway) Trump will conceded within the next few days. He already knows by heart that he lost. But we all know him. He can't ba a loser. He said yesterday very openly "I hate losing"

So his strategy is to say for a couple of days that he really won PA/MI and the dems stole it for him. He will say that he is conceding because he is not interested in picking a fight. But he really won. Once he sees that his base believes that he really won he will conceded.   [And right away start his 2024 campaign.] (btw, in 2024 he will still be younger than bernie sanders is now...) I think this will end fairly quickly.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1355 on: November 04, 2020, 10:14:48 PM »
Everyone is trashing the polls. If you want to PUOSU I can start another thread.  :)

Trashing the polls is nothing new. PUOSU means betting on the polls, not on the winner.
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Offline joe1234

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1356 on: November 04, 2020, 10:17:37 PM »
I didn't see this theory anywhere but I think it's simple mate if you figured out Trumps mind by now.

If this is turning out the way its looking like it will (PA going to Biden and then the others won't help Trump anyway) Trump will conceded within the next few days. He already knows by heart that he lost. But we all know him. He can't ba a loser. He said yesterday very openly "I hate losing"

So his strategy is to say for a couple of days that he really won PA/MI and the dems stole it for him. He will say that he is conceding because he is not interested in picking a fight. But he really won. Once he sees that his base believes that he really won he will conceded.   [And right away start his 2024 campaign.] (btw, in 2024 he will still be younger than bernie sanders is now...) I think this will end fairly quickly.
I don’t think he will concede as it is obvious that there is fraud going on...

Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1357 on: November 04, 2020, 10:18:07 PM »
What about 2018 when Trump wasn't running?
What's your question? That they were more accurate then?
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline ShimshonK

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1358 on: November 04, 2020, 10:18:37 PM »
NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 9:55 PM
Fundamentally, the issue for Trump is that while Georgia projects to be very close and Arizona — at least in my view — projects to be very close, Biden is way ahead of the pace he needs to overtake Trump in Pennsylvania. If it were three toss-ups, that would be one thing, but Biden could wind up winning Pennsylvania fairly comfortably.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1359 on: November 04, 2020, 10:20:07 PM »
Trashing the polls is nothing new. PUOSU means betting on the polls, not on the winner.
It is simple. Did the poll correctly pick the outcome not how close to the it score was. That is what odds are for and you seem to be confusing the two. Either way maybe I need a new PUOSU thread.  :)
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half