Poll

Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

Biden
41 (26.5%)
Trump
79 (51%)
Tied up in court/decided by Supreme Court
32 (20.6%)
Electoral Tie
3 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 154

Author Topic: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?  (Read 138639 times)

Offline S209

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1360 on: November 04, 2020, 10:20:19 PM »
Great site for election results, with an excellent record for calling races correctly. I know a few media outlets that use this site's data, and it's been highly recommended to me.

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/
They have the same AZ numbers as everyone else, but say 99% of votes are in. So basically the night is over.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1361 on: November 04, 2020, 10:20:36 PM »
What's your question? That they were more accurate then?
They got more right.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline S209

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1362 on: November 04, 2020, 10:20:47 PM »
I don’t think he will concede as it is obvious that there is fraud going on...
LOL
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Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1363 on: November 04, 2020, 10:26:19 PM »
NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 9:55 PM
Fundamentally, the issue for Trump is that while Georgia projects to be very close and Arizona — at least in my view — projects to be very close, Biden is way ahead of the pace he needs to overtake Trump in Pennsylvania. If it were three toss-ups, that would be one thing, but Biden could wind up winning Pennsylvania fairly comfortably.

I think Biden has a shot at PA, but it'll be under 1%. With those margins, the Trump lawsuit machine will go nuts. It'll be healthier all around if PA isn't the clincher, honestly.

Offline drosenberg88429

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1364 on: November 04, 2020, 10:29:46 PM »
They have the same AZ numbers as everyone else, but say 99% of votes are in. So basically the night is over.

I don't think they changed since earlier today, when all the sites were reporting 99% due to a reporting error and later retracted when error was corrected.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1365 on: November 04, 2020, 10:30:41 PM »
It is simple. Did the poll correctly pick the outcome not how close to the it score was. That is what odds are for and you seem to be confusing the two. Either way maybe I need a new PUOSU thread.  :)

If you know how polls work, there isn't a single poll saying that X is winning the election. You have to string together individual polls from each state to determine the outcome, or better yet, string together an average of many polls. If a poll says Biden +6 in PA and it ends up Biden +1 it's wrong on the outcome. If a vote flips from Biden +1 to Trump +1 that's an accurate poll with an accurate outcome within the margin of error.

Also,

Just because things turned out a certain way doesn't mean you were right
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Offline ilherman

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1366 on: November 04, 2020, 10:30:47 PM »
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1367 on: November 04, 2020, 10:33:08 PM »
If you know how polls work, there isn't a single poll saying that X is winning the election. You have to string together individual polls from each state to determine the outcome, or better yet, string together an average of many polls. If a poll says Biden +6 in PA and it ends up Biden +1 it's wrong on the outcome. If a vote flips from Biden +1 to Trump +1 that's an accurate poll with an accurate outcome within the margin of error.
I disagree and posted about polls vs odds extensively.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1368 on: November 04, 2020, 10:33:41 PM »
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1369 on: November 04, 2020, 10:34:53 PM »
I disagree and posted about polls vs odds extensively.

Don't know why you keep yapping about odds when all anyone here is talking about is inaccurate polls. If anyone wants to bet on odds they'd do it on a gambling site.
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Online aygart

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1370 on: November 04, 2020, 10:36:40 PM »
I disagree and posted about polls vs odds extensively.
Either way their usefulness drops significantly if they are off by that much.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1371 on: November 04, 2020, 10:38:03 PM »
The last time a democrat won Georgia was Clinton in 1996



They have the same AZ numbers as everyone else, but say 99% of votes are in. So basically the night is over.
No way the 99% is accurate

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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1372 on: November 04, 2020, 10:38:46 PM »
The last time a democrat won Georgia was Clinton in 1996

Last time the president lost Ohio?
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Offline Dan

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1373 on: November 04, 2020, 10:40:22 PM »
Last time the president lost Ohio?
1960
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1374 on: November 04, 2020, 10:41:18 PM »
Don't know why you keep yapping about odds when all anyone here is talking about is inaccurate polls. If anyone wants to bet on odds they'd do it on a gambling site.
Once you get into accuracy you now are talking about odds. All I am saying is they are right more than they are wrong.
There is no poll (over a set length of time) and there has never been any poll that is accurate based on your criteria.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline KSMH

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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1376 on: November 04, 2020, 10:50:23 PM »
Crowds amassing outside Maricopa counting facility. Ironically, here the Trumpsters want to count the votes


https://twitter.com/nicolevaldestv/status/1324187489884463104?s=21
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1377 on: November 04, 2020, 10:52:50 PM »
Crowds amassing outside Maricopa counting facility. Ironically, here the Trumpsters want to count the votes
Probably antifa just dressed differently?
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1378 on: November 04, 2020, 10:52:59 PM »
Once you get into accuracy you now are talking about odds. All I am saying is they are right more than they are wrong.

You're betting Patriots to cover against the Jets and calling it a win when they fail to cover because the Pats end up winning. I'm being generous, I'm spotting you an extra 3 points to cover the spread, and you still call it a win when they fail to cover.

Quote
There is no poll (over a set length of time) and there has never been any poll that is accurate based on your criteria.

So we are all in agreement that polls are not accurate :D
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Online Yehuda57

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Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1379 on: November 04, 2020, 10:54:16 PM »
It’s not just ironic, it’s actual self-destruction. If he could have just swallowed his ego and shown some respect and humility for a dying/fallen war hero and cancer patient he very possibly might have won this election. AZ voters are very deliberately avenging their beloved late Senator.

If this were true, we'd probably see two Republican senators even with a Biden win