Poll

Who Will Win The 2020 Election?

Biden
41 (26.5%)
Trump
79 (51%)
Tied up in court/decided by Supreme Court
32 (20.6%)
Electoral Tie
3 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 154

Author Topic: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?  (Read 138751 times)

Offline TimT

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 20K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 22077
  • Total likes: 7131
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 12
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1400 on: November 04, 2020, 11:46:49 PM »
For the same reason dems impeached Trump...
They hated Trump & wanted him gone. You don’t want Biden stepping down & having to deal with Harris.

Offline ilherman

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2013
  • Posts: 8935
  • Total likes: 227
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 35
    • View Profile
  • Location: Brooklyn
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1401 on: November 04, 2020, 11:48:24 PM »
It's not clear how much of the 600k outstanding ballots in AZ are from actual late mail in which favors Rs and how much are absentee ballots being actually dropped off in person which heavily favor Rs and would go +25 for Trump.

If there is a lot in person drop offs then he will carry Arizona. The point is just because it absentee ballots doesn't mean automatically it will favor biden. It is not PA.. It works different.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline ilherman

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2013
  • Posts: 8935
  • Total likes: 227
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 35
    • View Profile
  • Location: Brooklyn
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1402 on: November 04, 2020, 11:55:13 PM »
While most of us seem to think that this is over, the betting markets are still giving Trump a 15-20% chance of winning. Basically thru PA/AZ. Both states have about 15-20% chance of going to Trump.   We shall see if they know what we don't.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1403 on: November 04, 2020, 11:57:53 PM »
https://twitter.com/brendankeefe/status/1324195079796510720?s=21
https://twitter.com/brendankeefe/status/1324207280443793409?s=21

Not seeing anybody else with the last dump, but it brings Trump's lead to 15k votes in GA with 60k+ to go.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1404 on: November 05, 2020, 12:02:05 AM »
Can Biden give some republican senators cabinet positions to get democrat senators instead?
Nobody thinks there's a possibility Biden gives Collins a cabinet position or UK ambassador and Maine Gov gives him a Democrat Senator? That would make the senate 49-49 with 1-2 GA runoffs.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline zh cohen

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2013
  • Posts: 1501
  • Total likes: 1677
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: 412
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1405 on: November 05, 2020, 12:03:44 AM »
Nobody thinks there's a possibility Biden gives Collins a cabinet position or UK ambassador and Maine Gov gives him a Democrat Senator? That would make the senate 49-49 with 1-2 GA runoffs.

Why do you think she would accept it?

Offline ShimshonK

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Silver Elite
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2018
  • Posts: 550
  • Total likes: 148
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1406 on: November 05, 2020, 12:05:46 AM »
While most of us seem to think that this is over, the betting markets are still giving Trump a 15-20% chance of winning. Basically thru PA/AZ. Both states have about 15-20% chance of going to Trump.   We shall see if they know what we don't.
If PA and AZ each have 15-20% odds for Trump, and he needs both, the percentage should be dropped in half. Now, he doesn't technically need both, because he can take NV instead of AZ, but definitely should be lower odds than the odds to win PA alone.

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1407 on: November 05, 2020, 12:11:50 AM »
Why do you think she would accept it?
Isn't it an upgrade? Maybe even Education Department?
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Toasted

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Oct 2013
  • Posts: 1071
  • Total likes: 222
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 13
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1408 on: November 05, 2020, 12:15:07 AM »
If PA and AZ each have 15-20% odds for Trump, and he needs both, the percentage should be dropped in half. Now, he doesn't technically need both, because he can take NV instead of AZ, but definitely should be lower odds than the odds to win PA alone.
Even lower.  .22 = .04

Offline how

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 1878
  • Total likes: 62
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 6
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1409 on: November 05, 2020, 12:15:19 AM »
Whether wrong or right, Fox News early call of AZ for Biden likely prevented major civil unrest. If Arizona wouldn’t have been called, Trump would’ve long-ago claimed victory and moved on, when so many other states were clearly in play.

Pure Hashgocha

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1410 on: November 05, 2020, 12:17:29 AM »
Whether wrong or right, Fox News early call of AZ for Biden likely prevented major civil unrest. If Arizona wouldn’t have been called, Trump would’ve long-ago claimed victory and moved on, when so many other states were clearly in play.

Pure Hashgocha
BH, agreed,
https://twitter.com/brendankeefe/status/1324195079796510720?s=21
https://twitter.com/brendankeefe/status/1324207280443793409?s=21

Not seeing anybody else with the last dump, but it brings Trump's lead to 15k votes in GA with 60k+ to go.
https://twitter.com/brendankeefe/status/1324217257862549504?s=21
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Let3

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Dec 2012
  • Posts: 1103
  • Total likes: 31
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: New Jersey

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1412 on: November 05, 2020, 12:19:04 AM »
Still 17k to go in Fulton alone.... Which should bring Trump to under 5k lead... And there are still many more.

USPS can tilt this, any chance courts will force them to count undelivered ballots?

Not to mention the curable mail-in
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15792
  • Total likes: 7320
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1413 on: November 05, 2020, 12:20:34 AM »
2020 U.S Presidential Election
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
2   Joe Biden      -800   
1   Donald Trump      +580   
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Offline KSMH

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jul 2018
  • Posts: 2773
  • Total likes: 496
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1414 on: November 05, 2020, 12:26:20 AM »
Still 17k to go in Fulton alone.... Which should bring Trump to under 5k lead... And there are still many more.

USPS can tilt this, any chance courts will force them to count undelivered ballots?

Not to mention the curable mail-in
Nail-biting #s with some other D districts missing  some ballots counted.

Recount with court battle very likely.
Always praying for delayed baggage.

Offline KSMH

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jul 2018
  • Posts: 2773
  • Total likes: 496
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1415 on: November 05, 2020, 12:30:26 AM »
For all those watching GA tightly, try this link, it has some updated info on outstanding ballots.
Then compare the outstanding county's to those of the 2016 map and you'll see how tight it can get.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/about-200000-absentee-ballots-still-need-to-be-counted-in-georgia/BYGJAXV5FRBGBAMA6JPIC7ZL34/

Always praying for delayed baggage.

Offline KSMH

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jul 2018
  • Posts: 2773
  • Total likes: 496
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Always praying for delayed baggage.

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1417 on: November 05, 2020, 12:35:06 AM »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline KSMH

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jul 2018
  • Posts: 2773
  • Total likes: 496
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: Who Will Win The 2020 Election?
« Reply #1418 on: November 05, 2020, 12:38:31 AM »
Keep in mind that's in person stats. Mail-ins are biased Biden.
Good point.

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1324219037656719360

Fun starts.
Always praying for delayed baggage.

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים